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Trading Mathematics and Trend Following

  
  Education
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Some quick points, to be making money, Profit Factor must be greater than 1.

  • Profit Factor (PF)
  • = Gross Gains / Gross Losses
  • = (Average win * number of wins) / (Average loss * number of losses)
  • = R * w / (1-w)
    • where R = Average win / Average loss
    • w = win rate, i.e. % number of winners compared to total number of trades

Re-arranging, we have

  • w = PF / (PF + R)
  • R = PF * (1 – w) / w

Sample numbers showing the minimum R required to break-even (i.e. PF = 1, assuming no transaction costs) for varying win rates.

  • w = 90% >> R = 0.11
  • w = 80% >> R = 0.25
  • w = 70% >> R = 0.43
  • w = 60% >> R = 0.67
  • w = 50% >> R = 1
  • w = 40% >> R = 1.5
  • w = 30% >> R = 2.33
  • w = 20% >> R = 4
  • w = 10% >> R = 9

The style of trading strongly influences the win rate and R (average winner / average loser). For example, (more…)

Difference Between Lender & Borrower

  
Education, Humour, Life
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Portugal ,Italy ,Greece & Spain (PIGS Nation) are Busy playing Football.All the people in their country are Busy Watching Football matches & Enjoying.

Rest of the World is busy watching the crisis in the Eurozone and Worried about the Finance to the PIGS Nation.

This is the Difference between the Lender and the Borrower !

Traders-Are You Guilty?

  
  Education
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  1. re you trading without a plan? Trading without a plan makes you emotional and a gambler.
  2. Do you ever trade too big for your trading account size? Big trades are bad trades for the emotional engagement and risk of ruin that they entail over the long term.
  3. Do you risk losing more if you are wrong than you will make if you are right? The biggest driver of profitability in your trading will be big wins and small losses. Big losses and small wins is a sure path to losing your trading capital.
  4. Have you traded without studying charts to see what has happened historically with similiar price patterns? If you do your homework you can make money understanding possibilities and probabilities from past patterns. Trading your own opinions will usually put you on the wrong side of the market. 
  5. Did you trade a system before you back-tested it?Or are you just trading blindly?
  6. Have you ever exited a trade due to fear instead of due to hitting your stop loss or trailing stop? The right exit is what determines your profitability and whether your win is a big one or your loss is a big one.
  7. Have you ever entered a trade becasue of greed without an entry signal? Chasing a trade after the trend is over is a great way to lose money consistently and quickly.
  8. Have you ever copied someone else’s trade not knowing their time frame or position size? Ultimately you have to trade your own system and your own method that matches your own personality and risk tolerance. Only you can make yourself profitable with faith in yourself and your method.
  9. Are you that person that loves to short during market up trends and miss a whole up move?The easy money is on the side of the trend in your time frame going against the trend is a great way to lose money.
  10. Are you that knife catcher that keeps going long at the worn time in a down trend? When everyone is exiting a market that is the worst time to be getting long as wave after wave of holders are leaving. 

10 Winning Points For Traders

  
  Education
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  1. Understand the psychology of the trade: never believe you are smarter than the markets as the markets will always win.

  2. Acquire the knowledge on how the markets truly work then test and retest your ideas and concepts until you feel confident.
  3. Develop a working knowledge of what types of entry and exit orders work best.
  4. Understand how to manage risk by employing the use of options strategies.
  5. Pick a strategy that matches the market conditions.
  6. Manage the strategy. You should always know what your next reaction point will be and what prompts you to take it.
  7. Watch what moves. To be successful, you have to become a media hound.
  8. Integrate fundamental, technical, and sentiment analysis into a real world trading approach that enables you to best understand market performance.
  9. Specialize in one sector and one strategy at a time.

  10. Give yourself the winner’s edge by always continuing to actively pursue the learning process.

 

12 Rules of Market Cycles

  
  Education
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1. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate (deflation, price stability, and higher inflation)

2. Secular bulls occur when P/E starts low and ends high over an extended period

3. Secular bears occur when P/E starts high and ends low over an extended period

4. Cyclical bulls and bears are interim periods of directional swings within secular periods

5. Cyclical cycles are driven by market psychology, illiquidity, or other generally temporary condition(s)

6. Time is irrelevant to the length of secular stock market cycles

7. Secular bulls require a doubling or tripling of P/E

8. Secular bears occur as P/E stalls and falls by one-third to two-thirds or more

9. When real economic growth is near 3%, there is a natural floor for P/E between 5 and 10, a natural ceiling around the mid-20s, and a typical average in the mid-teens

10. If economic growth shifts upward or downward for the foreseeable future, the natural range moves upward or downward, respectively

11. Inflation drives P/Es location within the range; economic growth drives the level of the range

12. The stock market is not consistently predictable over months, quarters, or periods of a few years; the stock market is, however, quite predictable over periods approaching a decade or longer based upon starting P/E

Stock Market Wisdom :Benjamin Lee

  
  Education
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Benjamin Lee

“There are laws governing the financial markets just as there is gravity law to keep all things together on the earth.”

  • “Stock market is a battlefield. Always remember to survive in the game first. Only those that survive the battle can enjoy the spoils of the war.”
  • “Never revenge for your losses in share market. It will get you killed.”
  • “It is better to be late, and catch the right worm, than catching the snake’s tail.”
  • “The stock market is always there. It has been there for centuries, and it lives longer than anyone of us here. Therefore, don’t rush and trade all your capital like there is no tomorrow.”
  • “Human is always subject to his own emotion. How many of us can break free from the greed, fear, and unfounded hope that are so common in stock market?”

“Do not underestimate the power of a raging bull, and the strength of a bear in stock market. Both have the power to trample you to death if you fight against them.”

“The secret recipe for success in stock market is simple. 30% in market analysis skills, 30% in risks management, 30% in emotion control, and 10% in luck.”

“Time is the cause, Volume is the fuel, and Price is the result. Of all these three, Time is the greatest factor in determining stock market direction.”

“The worst enemy to any stock traders and investors are Greed, Fear, and unfounded Hope.”

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