Archives of “emotion” tag

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NICOLAS DARVAS AND HIS $2,000,000

  
  Analysis
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icolas Darvas viewed Wall Street as nothing more than a gambling casino; therefore, he set out to learn how to gamble.

I would like us to take a look at Mr. Darvas’ understanding of the stock market, as outlined in his best selling book How I Made $2,000,000 In The Stock Market, originally penned in 1960, as we recognize that what was true over 50 years ago still holds true today.  In other words, trading the market today is THE SAME AS IT EVER WAS.

Mr. Darvas experienced an “important turning point” in his stock market career when he learned that “there is no such thing as cannot in the market.  Any stock can do anything.”  With this in mind Darvas developed his “box theory” based on the following realizations:

1.  There is no sure thing in the market.  I was bound to be wrong half the time. Darvas adopted what he called the “quick-loss weapon”.  He already knew he would be wrong quite often (half the time); therefore, he decided to accept his mistakes realistically and get out of a losing trade with a small loss.  “This way, I figured, I would never sleep with a loss.  If any of my stocks went below the price I thought they should, I would not own them when I went to bed that night.  I knew that many times I would be stopped out for the sake of a point just to see my stock climb up immediately after.  But I realized that this was not so important as stopping the big losses.  Besides, I could always buy back the stock by paying a higher price.”

2.  My pride and my ego would have to be subdued.  Darvas surmised that with a win ratio of 50% his profits had to be bigger than his losses.  Breaking even was not a sustainable option.  For that to happen he would have to take many losses while letting the winners run.  Egotistical pride would have to give way to humble reality.  “As if stocks were made to conform to my new attitude, I handled this quite successfully for quite a while.  I bought with bold confidence when I thought I was right and coldly, without a hurt ego, I took my limited losses when I thought I was proven wrong.”

3.  I must become an impartial diagnostician. Instead of trying to force his will upon market direction, Darvas allowed the market to direct him by becoming intimate with a few stocks at a time and by not listening to others.  “To try to fit the market into a rigid pattern was a mistake.  As I only handled five to eight stocks at a time, I automatically separated them from the confusing, jungle-like movement of the hundreds of stocks surrounding them.  I was influenced by nothing but the price of my stocks.  I could not hear what people said, but I could see what they did.  It was like a poker game in which I could not hear the betting, but I could see all the cards.  Of course, the poker players would try to mislead me with words, and they would not show me their cards.  But if I did not listen to their words, and constantly watched their cards, I could guess what they were doing.”

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10 HABITS OF SUCCESSFUL TRADERS

  
Analysis, Education
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Number 10 - Free Picture of the Number Ten1.  Follow the Rule of Three.  The rule of three simply states that a trade will not be made unless you can carefully articulate three reasons for doing so.  This eliminates trading from an indicator alone.

2.  Keep Losses Small.  It is vitally important to keep losses small as most all of large losses began as small ones, and large losses can put an end to your trading career.

3.  Adjust Stops.  When a trade is working move your stop loss up in order to lock in gains.

4.  Keep Commissions Low.  There is a cost to trading but there is no reason to overpay brokerage fees.  A discount brokerage is just as good as a premium brand name one.

5.  Amateurs at the Open, Pros at the Close.  The best time to enter trades are after lunch when the professionals are looking to get in at a better price than one provided in the morning.

6.  Know the General Market Trend.  When trading individual stocks make sure you trade with the general market trend or condition, not against it.

7.  Write Down Every Trade.  Doing this will allow you to learn what is working and what is not.  It will also help you determine what types of trades work best for your personality.

8.  Never Average Down a Losing Position.  It is a loser’s game when you add to a loser.  You add to winning positions because they are winners and are proving themselves to be such.

9.  Never Overtrade.  Overtrading is a direct result of not following a well thought out plan, deciding it is best to trade off emotion instead.  This will do nothing but cause frustration and a loss of money.

10.  Give 10 Percent Away.  Money works the fastest when it is divided.  When we share we prime the economic pump of the universe.

Trading is a game of rules.  We either make the decision to abide by them or we break them.  We do the latter at our own peril.

Learn to be wrong and Who cares?

  
Analysis, Education
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1.) Learn to be wrong. Traditional education trains us into thinking that we have to be right to get the grade. With investing and trading, focusing on being right will bring assymetric risk to your methodology and will eventually lead to a blowout at least once. – Steven Place

2.) First, invest in yourself.  That is, acquire as much knowledge as possible and analytical skills in a wide variety of disciplines and develop the ability to abstract yourself from the present. Become a mathematician, economist, political scientist, psychologist, sociologist, and futurist. – Gary Evans

3.) You are not a market-timing genius and neither is anyone selling services to you! There is a long-term path to progress, with several good ways to get aboard.  Be interested, be watchful, but do not be too confident. – Jeff Miller

4.) First, understand that ultimately you are responsible for the outcome of your investments and that they shouldn’t blame bad markets, bad advisors, or bad luck if they lose money.  Secondly, always try to stay as objective and unemotional as you can about what you invest in.  And lastly, remember that discipline and risk management is the key.  You can lose all the profits from five well managed trades or investments with one poorly managed one. 

Emotions In Trading -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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For many traders emotional trading is a problem and it stops them from being consistent in the market. We see what causes emotional trading in this article and I share six steps to greatly help reduce it, or stop it entirely.

Emotions in trading have always been one of the main causes of losses, and at the same time − the main driving force for all types of money. Remember the classic idea: buyers push the price up because of greed, and sellers sell because of fear of losses?

It still works perfectly in any market.

Popular training materials on market trading almost do not pay attention to managing emotions. This is understandable: any broker is the first participant in the trading process, which is vitally interested in having you leave your deposit to the market.

That is why most newcomers, especially those who passed the super-fast and super effective training in various brokerage kitchens, remain psychologically unprepared for trading. And even good technical training will not help such players save their money.

Assessing and reacting to market risk is one of the most important things you’ll have to do as a trader. Sadly, human being as a whole are so mediocre at this task, investors and traders reliably make decisions that economists consider “irrational.”

So obviously these are commonly more referred to as emotional trading.

 

Six Steps to Help You Stop Emotional Trading

Financial markets are a by-product of modern era and, in the grand scheme of things, our brains have evolved over millions of years for survival out in the open. They haven’t had the time to get good at making sound and perfectly rational financial decisions.

We have brain processes; an emotional one and a logical one that are constantly competing against one another for our future expression in the market. And normally, for the trader that has little to no market experience, who trades money they can’t afford to lose, or who has a short fuse overall, the stage is set for an incident.

But also more seasoned traders tend to make emotional trading decisions that they consider stupid in hindsight. Perhaps less often than inexperienced traders do, and with minor consequences, but those errors do happen.

Many a times, although we know with the logical part of our brain that we will get better results if we follow our trading rules, so many of us do exactly the opposite, despite clear knowledge of what we should do.

We remove stops, we cut winners short, we go in with too big of a size… I mean, we’re clearly

not purely rational beings ― and we can’t be because that would make us robots, not humans.

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False Beliefs About Trading the Markets

  
  Education
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1) What goes up must come down and vice versa.

That’s Newton’s law, not the law of trading. And even if the market does eventully self-correct, you have no idea when it will happen. In short, there’s no point blowing up your account fighthing the tape.

2) You have to be smart to make money.

No, what you have to be is disciplined. If you want to be smart, write a book or teach at a university. If you want to make money, listen to what the market is telling you and trade to make money — not to be “right.”

3) Making money is hard.

Nope. Sorry. Making money is actually easy. Statistically, you’re going to do it about half the time. Keeping it, now that’s the hard part.

4) I have to have a high winning percentage to be profitable.

Not true. How often you are right on a trade is only half of the equation. The other half is how much do you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong. You can remember that with this formula:

Probability (odds of it going up or down) x Magnitude (how much it goes up or down) = Profitability

5) To be successful, I have to trade without emotions.

That is both wrong and impossible. You are human so you have emotions. Emotions can be a powerful motivator to your trading.

When you feel angry or scared in trading, take that emotion and translate it into something more productive. For example, if you’re feeling angry because you just got run over by the market, view that anger as a reason to be more focused and disciplined in your entry and exit levels on the next trade.

Floored

  
Analysis, Education, Video
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A world that’s more riot than profession, the trading floors of Chicago are a place where gambling your family’s mortgage is all in a day’s. At a time when markets are unhinged, FLOORED offers a unique window to this lesser-known world of finance. These men may not have degrees, but they’ve got guts, and penchant for excess that solicits simultaneous feelings of revulsion- and a desire to root them on. But like many aspects of our economy, technology is changing the way these traders do business, and these eccentric pit denizens aren’t the type to take kindly to new tricks. Computerized trading may take the emotion out of the job, but it may also take some of these old-timers out- dinosaurs in a young man’s game.

The Greatest Trading Loss

  
  Education
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The Greatest Trading Loss

 Trading-loss

What is the greatest risk you face in trading?

 

Is it loss of money?

 

Certainly, that’s what most traders believe. I tend to disagree though. In my opinion we have something much greater at risk, that very few of us consider during the ‘learning phase’.

 

The American political journalist and author, Norman Cousins, is quoted as saying, ‘Death is not the greatest loss in life. The greatest loss is what dies inside us while we live.’

 

Along similar lines, I would argue that loss of capital is not the greatest loss in trading. The greatest loss is what we lose from within. (more…)

Trading Psychology -Quotes

  
  Education
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  • To be a successful trader/investor, your intellect and emotion must work as a team, which is easier said than done.”

– James Dalton

  • ” Successful traders accept and expect losses. Losses are endemic to trading; they are the cost of doing business. The consistently successful trader accepts deep in his heart that his winnings will be tempered with inevitable loss. But the trader anticipates his ultimate triumph because he has structured the probabilities in his favor”.

-LBR

  • “To be a successful trader you need to trade without fear. When you use fear as a resource to limit yourself, you will create the very conditions you are trying to avoid. Or to say this another way, you will experience your fears.”

-Mark Douglas

  • “The man who insists upon seeing with perfect clearness before he decides, never decides.”

– Henri-Frederic Amiel

  • “…to be a successful trader, I must love to lose money and hate to make money…The first loss is the best loss; there is no better loss than the first loss…Trading is a discipline.”

– EEK

  • “One of the critical criteria I use in judging my traders is their ability to take a loss. If they can’t take a loss, they can’t trade.”

– John Mack

  • “If you have bad inventory, mark it down and sell it quickly.”

– Alan “Ace” Greenburg

  • “Never meet a margin call. (In other words, if the market is going against you, concede defeat quickly and liquidate before you really lose your shirt.)”

– James Grant

  • “Fail Often but never quit.”

Six Insights for Disciplined Trading

  
  Education
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1) Trading is a probability game.  You can’t be a perfectionist and expect to be a great trader. Your losses (that you hope will return to breakeven) will kill you.

2) Jumping in too soon or getting in too late.  These mistakes come from traders not having a well-defined plan of how they will enter the market.  This positions the trader as a reactive trader instead of a proactive trader, which increase the level of emotion the trader will feel in reacting to market movements.  A written plan helps make a trader more systematic and objective, and reduces the risk that emotions will cause the trader to deviate from his plan.

3) Not taking profits on winners and letting winners turn to losers.  Again this is a function of not having a properly thought-out plan.  Entries are easy but exits are hard.  You must have a plan for how you will exit the market, both on your winners and your losers.  Then your job as a trader becomes to execute your plan precisely.

4) Great traders don’t place their own expectations on to the market’s behavior.  Poor traders expect the market to give them something.  When conditions change, a smart trader will recognize that, and take what the market gives. 

5) Emotional pain comes from expectations not being realized.  When you expect something, and it doesn’t deliver as expected, what occurs? Disappointment.  By not having expectations of the market, you are not setting yourself up for this inner turmoil.  Douglas states that the market doesn’t generate pain or pleasure inherently; the market only generates upticks and downticks.  It is how we perceive and respond to these upticks and downticks that determine how we feel.  This perception and feeling is a function of our beliefs.  If you’re still feeling pain when taking a loss according to your plan, you are still experiencing a belief that your loss is somehow a negative reflection on you personally. 

6) The Four Major Fears – fear of losing money, being wrong, missing out, leaving money on the table.  All of these fears result from thinking you know what will happen next. Your trading plan must approach trading as a probabilities game, where you know in advance you will win some and lose some, but that the odds will be in your favor over time.  If you approach trading thinking that you can’t take a loss, then take three losses in a row (which is to be expected in most trading methods), you will be emotionally devastated and will give up on your plan.

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