The preliminary release can be found here. No change to the headline but a slight bump to the core reading relative to the initial estimate. On the latter, there is still some breathing room for the ECB but the pressure will be on in the months ahead.
These are some rosy numbers and that’s good for the euro — at least in as much as you can trust a central bank forecast. Notably, they aren’t forecasting any rate hikes and still see CPI below target through the horizon.
The market is quiet but keep an eye out on Treasury yields
10-year yields are down 2.2 bps currently to 1.51% but the low today hit 1.50% earlier and that is a key level to watch from a technical perspective.
There hasn’t been much appetite for yields to move out of range per se since April (after failing to breach 1.75%) but we are seeing things start to get pinned closer to key levels with the 100-day moving average (red line) also resting nearby.
10-year breakevens have also retreated slightly to 2.36% from a high of 2.54% so the market is perhaps taking some cues from the Fed in recent weeks.
Tomorrow’s US CPI data will provide the next key catalyst for the bond market but in the meantime, a technical break may also weigh on yen pairs and the dollar later today.
Global growth to reach 5.6% 2021 up from 4.1% in January. Strongest postrecession pace in 80 years
Gains in global growth comes after a -3.5% contraction in 2020
Forecasts 2022 global growth at 4.3% and 2023 growth at 3.1%
Increasing global growth reflects stronger US fiscal support, and highly unequal vaccine access
Sees US 2020 growth that 6.8%. That is up from 5.5% in January. In 2020 the US contracted by -3.5%
Sees China’s 2021 growth at 8.5% versus January’s 7.9%. Contracted -2.3% in 2020.
Sees global inflation to rise about one percentage point in 2021. May not warrant a policy response
Long-term expectations point to continued low and stable inflation.
Market concerns about persistent higher inflation in advanced economies could cause emerging market borrowing costs to rise
Sees emerging markets ex-China growth at 4.4% in 2021 versus 3.4% estimate in January. In 2020 emerging markets ex-China felt -4.3%
Some pretty decent increases in growth forecasts. Not much on inflation in their report which is the driving force for the markets. The US CPI data will be released on Thursday with expectations of a 0.4% rise after a 0.8% increase last month.