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On By In Analysis, Education, seminars

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Russia’s Novak: There is enough stockpiles to cover shortfall from Saudi Arabia

On By In Analysis, Crude

Comments by Russian energy minister, Alexander Novak

Oil
  • We are in contact with Saudi Arabia
  • Need to see what happens there before taking any decision on Russian production
  • No immediate need to convene extraordinary OPEC+ meeting
Russia is continuing to play down the impact of the attacks on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend and to some extent, they’re not wrong.
The Saudis definitely have the stockpile to offset the loss of production in the near-term but the question now will be how soon can they get these facilities back online?
It’s more of a question of infrastructure in that regard but there’s no doubting that heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will keep oil prices underpinned as well.

Euro: Now on a medium term bullish run

On By In Analysis, Forex

Via Bloomberg

Via Bloomberg
As I was mulling over the ECB rate decision last week I came across an interesting and helpful piece from the Bloomberg market live blog which I will detail below. The reaction to the ECB rate decision was to put in a firm reversal on the EURUSD pair. The markets live blog made the case for a medium term bullish turning point:
1. Rates – the ECB cut rates, but not more than expected. Euro rates have been deeply negative for years and will stay negative for years and these small moves changes little at the margin. Draghi has also explicitly said that monetary policy has reached it’s limits and fiscal policy needs to step up now
2. Tiering – Is finally here and should relieve the impact of negative rates. The suffering of the European banking sector has been dragging on the regions economy. Tiering is a positive for the Euro, even if it is mild
3. QE – ECB officials have shown that they will do whatever it takes for however long it takes. This is a positive for the Euro as it removes tail-risk outcomes enhancing the euro’s appeal as a reserve currency, and a potential haven asset.
Ok, that was the heart of the article and one takeaway we can definitely take from this is thatany news of fiscal policy stimulus from the eurozone will be euro positive. One headline to watch out for, as it should be good for a quick +50 on the EURUSD when it comes.

Rouhani has no plans to meet with Trump – Iranian official

On By In Analysis, Politics

Iran foreign ministry spokesman says that the two won’t be meeting in New York

US Iran

Iranian president Rouhani will be in New York for the United Nations General Assembly starting this week but there is still no clear indication that he will be meeting with US president Trump during his trip.

This just reaffirms that notion and continues to see Iran draw a hard line that they won’t head to the negotiating table until the US removes current sanctions against the republic.

US media says Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones in attack on Saudi

On By In Analysis, Politics

ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

  • Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles 
  • over 20 drones from its territory
  • a senior Trump administration official told ABC News Sunday.
officially:
  • so far, there’s been no public accusation that Iran launched missiles
Adds ABC:
  • But a senior U.S. official told ABC News Saturday that was false: “It was Iran. The Houthis are claiming credit for something they did not do.”
  • Pompeo tweeted that there was “no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”
—
ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

Brexit – BCC cuts 2019 UK GDP forecast o +1.2% from +1.3%, 2020 lowered also

On By In Analysis

British Chambers of Commerce cut its forecast for economic growth this year and next

Citing:
  • slower global economy
  • U.S.-China trade tensions
  • persistent drag from Brexit
Growth forecast for this year to 1.2% from its June forecast of 1.3%
  • 2020 to 0.8% from 1.0
  • “Our latest forecast shows a number of warning lights are flashing for the UK economy, even if we are able to avoid a messy and disorderly exit from the EU in just a few weeks’ time,” BCC director general Adam Marshall said.

Australian intelligence says China responsible for cyber-attack on national parliament

On By In Analysis, Politics

Reuters with the report, pretty sure this was said already but if not:

  • Australian intelligence determined China was responsible for a cyber-attack on its national parliament and three largest political parties before the general election in May
  • five people with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters
  • Australia’s cyber intelligence agency – the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) – concluded in March that China’s Ministry of State Security was responsible for the attack, the five people with direct knowledge of the findings of the investigation told Reuters. 
  • The five sources declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue. Reuters has not reviewed the classified report.
Tensions with China are a negative for the AUD.

UBS on oil after the attack on Saudi production facilities

On By In Analysis, Crude
Where we are at is its expected there will be supply disruptions, for how long depends on how quickly the facilities can be repaired, but in the very short term, ie coming days, its expected Saudi can continue supply from stocks. UBS caution:
  • spare capacity is limited
  • However, spare capacity is primarily in the hands of the Saudis UBS assess this at 70% of spare capacity)
  • add that, with 70% of spare capacity, attack is a reminder that large disruptions in Saudi Arabia  mean the ‘reaction function’ of OPEC to cover any supply disruptions is limited
ICYMI, attacks on Saudi oil facilities over the weekend, check the links for the news and what the implications are:

Platts on the oil price impact of the Saudi attack

On By In Analysis
Via Platts now, in brief from their analysis:
  • Attacks increases concerns on about supply security in the Middle East
  • Oil price risk premium should heighten
  • sudden change in geopolitical risk warrants elimination of the $5-10 a barrel discount on bearish sentiment and also adds potential $5-10 a barrel premium to account for threats to supply, sudden elimination of spare capacity
  • prices are likely to break out of the current $55-65 a barrel options range
  • test high $70s
  • could move higher still if Saudi output is curtailed for a more substantial period
—-
Note, exports from Saudi are expected to remain around normal levels this week as inventory is drawn upon. Evidence of prolonged curtailment of supply due to damage to production facilities is what to watch for.
ICYMI, oil prices will jump at the open on the attacks over the weekend:

Goldman Sachs oil price forecasts after the Saudi attack

On By In Analysis, Crude

Comments from GS’ Energy Research & Senior Commodity Strategist

  • Brent oil up $3 to $5 if the shutdown time is less than a week
  • Up $5 to $14 if the shutdown is longer, 2 to 6 weeks
  • If the shut down of production is more than 6 weeks price to over $75, shale oil production gets a big boost