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BP says oil demand and supply will both rise next year, supply growth to outpace

Via Bloomberg comes this from oil firm BP, in brief:

 

  • expects global oil consumption will return to pre-pandemic levels in Q3 2022
  • Asia persisting as the centre for oil-product demand growth
  • 2022 oil demand expected average gain of 3.8 m bpd y/y v (down from 2021 at 5.4 m bpd)

 

On the supply side of the ledger:

 

  • global oil output growth will probably exceed consumption in 2022
  • OPEC+ and US producers will add more output

World Bank still optimistic on China’s economic growth, forecast 8.5%

The World Bank has had its credibility dented by this from last week:

  • World Bank leaders, including then-Chief Executive Kristalina Georgieva, applied “undue pressure” on staff to boost China’s ranking in the bank’s “Doing Business 2018” report
Link here more on that ….
Moving along though, the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Fall 2021 Economic Update
  • China’s economy is projected to expand by 8.5%
  • the rest of the region is forecast to grow at 2.5% (nearly 2 percentage points less than forecast in April 2021)
  • “The economic recovery of developing East Asia and Pacific faces a reversal of fortune”
  • “Whereas in 2020 the region contained COVID-19 while other regions of the world struggled, the rise in COVID-19 cases in 2021 has decreased growth prospects for 2021.”
I think developments in China have worsened since the bank researched for this piece:
Evergrande, power shortages, factory layoffs ….
  • Chinese media says to expect a crackdown on high coal prices – citing power shortages, cuts to factory output
  • Goldman Sachs has cut its China 2021 GDP forecast to 7.8% (from 8.2% previously)
The World Bank has had its credibility dented by this from last week:

New York is firing up to 72,000 workers (the next NFP might be interesting)

Healthcare workers who refuse the coronavirus vaccine mandate are being let go by NY.

  • Number said to be “up to” 72K.
I guess if they are not replaced by others this could well see impact on the job market, especially if its replicated elsewhere.
What’s the story being a healthcare worker refusing vaccination. Trying to drum up more business?

Chinese media says to expect a crackdown on high coal prices – citing power shortages, cuts to factory output

China’s Global Times with the report, saying that “experts believe that Chinese authorities will launch new measures – including a crackdown on high coal prices – to ensure a steady electricity supply.”

The GT provide a litany of current woes:
  • Nationwide power curbs, caused by many factors including a steep jump in coal prices and surging demand
  • side effects at Chinese factories of all kinds, with some cutting output or halting production entirely
  • Industry insiders predict the situation could worsen as the winter season draws near.
It goes on with stories of worker layoffs due to power cuts shutting production,
  • all our 500 workers are off on a month-long holiday
  • over 100 companies in Dafeng district, Yantian city, Jiangsu Province, facing the similar predicament.
A ‘holiday’ in China like this is not a paid holiday.
Includes scary coal price graph:
China's Global Times with the report, saying that "experts believe that Chinese authorities will launch new measures - including a crackdown on high coal prices - to ensure a steady electricity supply."

US stocks close mixed. Nasdaq and S&P close lower. Dow up but off highs.

ASDAQ falls -0.52%. Dow posts a four day win streak

The major indices are ending the day with mixed results. The Dow is higher on the day and has posted a four day win streak. The the NASDAQ index is down for the second consecutive day. The S&P index snapped its three day win streak.

The final numbers are showing:
  • Dow +71.37 points or 0.21% at 34,869.37
  • NASDAQ felt -77.73 points or -0.52% at 14 969.98
  • S&P fell -12.37 points or -0.28% at 4443.11
  • Russell 2000 index rose 32.93 points or 1.46% at 2281.00
Some big winners today included:
  • Alcoa, +6.43%
  • Dow, +5.07%
  • First Solar, +4.88%
  • Schlumberger, +4.10%
  • Nio, +3.9%
  • Exxon Mobil, +3.76%
  • Bed Bath and Beyond +3.74%
  • Alibaba, +3.47%
  • Tencent, +3.43%
  • Beyond Meat, +3.25%
  • PNC, +2.93%
  • Ford, +2.3%
  • Dollar Tree, +2.77%
  • Bank of America, +2.66%
Losers today included:
  • Novavax, -6.94%
  • Moderna, -4.93%
  • Roblox, -3.91%
  • Palantir, -3.75%
  • Snap, -3.63%
  • Crowdstrike, -3.22%
  • Adobe, -3.06%
  • Goodrx, -2.9%
  • Intuitive surgical, -2.89%
  • Twitter, -2.76%
  • Blackberry, -2.22%
  • Salesforce, -2.08%
  • Chipotle -2.02%
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