Major indices have another wild ride in trading today

Major indices close near highs for the day

It was another wild day in the equity complex.

The major indices are all closing higher and near their session highs after earlier falls were erased.
  • Dow posted the best weekly performance in four weeks
  • NASDAQ sees its second straight weekly loss
  • Dow S&P and NASDAQ snap three day losing streak
  • Russell 2000 index increases by 2.11% to lead the way today
A look of the final numbers shows:
  • S&P index up 73.4 points work +1.95% at 3841.86. At the lows, the S&P was down -1.02%.
  • NASDAQ index of 196.67 points or 1.55% at 12920.14. At the lows and NASDAQ was down -2.57%
  • Dow industrial average up 571.7 points or 1.85% at 31495.84. At the lows the Dow industrial average was down -0.51%
  • Russell index rose 45.28 points or 2.11% at 2192.92. At the lows of the Russell index was down -2.88%.

Major indices tumble with the NASDAQ/Russell index lead the declines

Russell index falls -2.76%. The NASDAQ index was -2.11%

The major indices tumbled once again with the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 index leading the way to the downside. Feds Powell’s interview with the Wall Street Journal did not help hope that the Fed chair would look to talk down (or act on) the higher long-term rates. That did not happen.

  • The Dow industrial fell -722 point at the lows or -2.31%
  • The NASDAQ index turned down on the year (the 3 day decline has seen the index declined -6.506% That is the March 3 day decline since September 3)
  • The Nasdaq fell  -3.41% at the lows
  • The S&P fell -2.52% at the lows
  • The Russell 2000 index fell -4.42% the lows
At the close the major indices did recover some of the losses but still remains sharply lower on the day:
  • S&P index fell -51.25 points or -1.34% at 3768.47
  • NASDAQ index fell -274.27 points or -2.11% at 12723.47
  • Dow industrial fell -345.95 points or -1.11% at 30924.14
  • the Russell index fell -60.87 points or -2.76% at 2146.92

US equities struggle for a second day, give back most of the weekly gain

Tech like an anchor on stocks

SPX daily
The shape of the US equity selloff continues to be a story unto itself. The Nasdaq plunged 2.7% to finish on the lows while the Russell was down 0.5% and the Dow just 0.4%. Overall, the S&P 500 was down 50 points to 3819, or 1.3%.
The drop today wipes out most of the huge gain on Monday (which was the largest since June).
The trend/wedge is back in the crosshairs ahead of Powell tomorrow. I’m increasingly convinced that he’s going to brush of the rise in yields. If that combines with OPEC+ rolling over cuts, then there’s a great case for higher yields and more pain in stocks.

Late selling sends US equities into the red despite bond market reversal

Closing changes for the main North American indexes

Closing changes for the main North American indexes
Yields finished near the lows of the day and about 20 minutes before the close that looked like it was going to spill into equities as they quickly jumped but right at the end of the day there was some hard selling
  • S&P 500 -0.5%
  • DJIA -1.5%
  • Nasdaq +0.6%
  • Russell 2000 +1.0%
  • TSX Comp -0.7%
On the week:
  • S&P 500 -2.5%
  • DJIA -1.8%
  • Nasdaq -4.9%
  • Russell 2000 -2.0%
  • TSX Comp -1.5%
On the month:
  • S&P 500 +2.6%
  • DJIA +3.15%
  • Nasdaq +0.9%
  • Russell 2000 +7.0%
  • TSX Comp +4.8%

The jitters are returning ahead of North American trading

US futures turn lower, dollar stays more bid as commodity currencies sink

S&P 500 futures have turned lower, down by 0.5%, while Nasdaq futures have also pared its earlier advance (following a turnaround) to be down 0.7%.

Nasdaq
The jitters are still evident in the market as we await Wall Street to enter the fray.
In the major currencies space, the dollar is soaring against the commodity currencies with USD/CAD rising from 1.2600 earlier to 1.2685. Meanwhile, AUD/USD has dropped by over 1.5% from 0.7800 to 0.7730.
It is up to Wall Street to have their say now, as it looks like Asia and Europe aren’t able to settle on a firm narrative and what to make of yesterday’s tornado.
Update (1230 GMT): US futures back to flat levels again now. It’s gut check time.

As Expected complete Bloodbath at #WALLTREET

Closing changes in US equities:

Closing changes in US equities:
  • S&P 500 down 92 points to 3833 (-2.3%)
  • Nasdaq -3.3%
  • DJIA -1.6%
  • Russell 2000 -3.8%
The bond market is a mess:
  • 2s +5 bps to 0.17%
  • 5s +22 bps to 0.82%
  • 10s +15 bps to 1.53%
  • 30s +6 bps to 2.29%
There are a multitude of ways to spin this but this is a market that suddenly wants to reassurances from the Fed that they won’t let yields run too far too fast. There’s also very good argument that convexity hedging in the mortgage market combined with dealer selling after the auction is responsible for a good chunk of this move.
The good news is that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed above Tuesday’s low. The bad news is that tomorrow is the PCE report and if inflation is high, those levels aren’t likely to hold.

Poll shows analysts expect another (approx) 6% higher for the S&P500 this year

Reuters polling on US equities, with the headline median forecast from 50 analysts showing

  • S&P500 expected to finish 2021 at 4,100
  • expected to be at 4,000 by end-June
And adds:
  • some strategists warning of a possible surge in inflation, many viewed a correction in stocks in the next six months as likely or very likely.
  • Progress in distribution of the coronavirus vaccine coupled with President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion package for pandemic relief have boosted the outlook for the economy and earnings. 
Dow Jones industrial average
will finish this year at 32,970
Risks highlighted include:
  • inflation concerns
  • higher taxes as the economy accelerates
On higher yields:
  • “Higher bond yields aren’t turning us bearish on the year,” Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets …  “What the increase in yields does do, in our view, is provide another justification for rotation out of defensives and secular growth.”

US stocks close sharply higher. Dow industrial average closes at a record high

Russell 2000 index rises by 2.38%

The major stock indices all closed sharply higher with the Russell 2000 of small-cap stocks outperforming with a gain of 2.38%. The Dow industrial average is closing at a record high of 31961.86. It reached an intraday all-time high of 32009.64.

A look at the closing levels shows

  • Russell index up 53.08 points or 2.38% at 22840.40
  • NASDAQ index up 132.77 points or 0.99% at 13597.97
  • S&P index up 43.98 points or 1.13% at 3925.35
  • Dow industrial average up 424.51 points or 1.35% at 31961.86. The all-time high reached 32009.64
A blast from the past – well a a few weeks ago – Gamestop trading was halted with the price up 103% to $91.
Although higher, the NASDAQ index fell short of reaching its 200 hour moving average at 13612.098. The high price reached 13607.36.  A move above that level would tilt the technical bias more to the upside in the intermediate-term. The price of the NASDAQ index tumbled close below the 200 hour moving average on Monday and open sharply lower on Tuesday testing the low price from January 29 and bouncing.  Today, the pair opened lower again, but moved higher through the day, and closed near the highs.
Russell 2000 index rises by 2.38%