This from the Wall Street Journal overnight, polling registered voters shows Biden leading Trump 53% to 42%
An 11 point lead which is an improvement for Trump as the previous poll had him trailing by 14.
In the detail of the piece is this:
The No. 1 election issue among those surveyed was the economy, and voters gave Republicans a 13-point advantage over Democrats as the better economic manager. Yet, the pollsters said voters this election cycle don’t seem to be voting based on that issue alone.
a recent example of Republicans losing an election while leading with voters on handling the economy was the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats gained enough seats to retake control of the House.
I am aware that posts like this make some folks upset. They accuse me of all sorts of things, such as bias. Which is projection, but its OK as these folks are upset and hurting. If you would like to point me to any reputable polls showing Trump is ahead I’d be keen to post on those, it would add some interest to the race for the White House.
This an NPR/PBS poll published Thursday in the US.
“among likely voters in the poll”.
Says the piece:
It’s the highest level of support Biden has achieved since the poll began testing the head-to-head matchup in February
Biden continues to have an advantage with Black voters, Latinos, whites with a college degree, women, people who live in cities and suburbs, young voters and independents
Biden is leading in this survey with white voters 51% to 47%. That is extraordinary. Trump won white voters in 2016 by 20 points, and no Democrat has won that high a share of white voters since Jimmy Carter in 1976, when the U.S. was far less racially diverse.
Biden has pulled ahead in several key states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which were crucial to Trump’s victory in 2016. But Trump is within striking distance.
Rasmussen Reports has been a Trump-friendly firm since he first arrived as a candidate. It was one of the few pollsters that predicted he would win the Presidency and their numbers are often touted by the President himself.
Today though, they published a poll with Trump losing 52%-40% to Biden with just 4% undecided.
“President Trump’s debate performance followed by his coronavirus diagnosis appear to be digging an even deeper hole for him this week,” Rasmussen said.
RealClearPolitics has Biden up 9.7 points.
Rasmussen daily Trump approval rating is also at its lowest since June at -15. It had perked up to +4 on Sept 18 but that was the day Ruth Bader Ginsberg died and it’s been downhill steadily since.
Other state polls today:
Texas – even
Iowa – Biden +1
Nevada – Biden +6
Ohio – Biden +1
Pennsylvania – Biden +13
Iowa – Biden +5
Florida – Biden +11
Likely a big reason that US equities stormed back today were bets on a blue wave followed by a huge stimulus package.
In the 2016 election, Clinton never hit 50% and there were far more undecideds. It’s going to be very tough for Trump to turn this around.
Putin says that Russia is just an observer in the US election
He’s putting a more neutral facade at the moment by saying that with Trump, there were a lot of success in Russia-US relations but Trump also imposed the most amount of sanctions ever against Russia by any US president.
As for Biden, he said that he welcomes Biden’s statements of arms control noting that it is an important signal for future cooperation. But at the same time said Biden’s anti-Russian rhetoric is something to that they will take note of.
“Will there be a clear, uncontested and accepted winner?” is a better question
The betting odds of a Biden Presidency ticked higher after yesterday’s debate. I believe Trump’s constant interrupting was at least partly strategic in the hope of tripping up Biden and making him look more like the bumbling caricature he’s tried to construct. By and large that didn’t work and I doubt Trump won over many undecideds.
Given the polling lead, Biden should be a large favourite but he’s stuck at 60/40 because no one can forget Trump’s upset win over Hillary Clinton, or Brexit.
For markets, I think the outcome itself is less important in the short term than the question of whether or not their will be a clear winner; and whether Trump will ever concede.
BMO’s fixed income team writes today about the tail risk of a contested election but ponders the degree to which the consensus opinion is already fully incorporated into current valuations.
Let’s face it, very few in the market are anticipating a smooth election nor for any potential transition of power to be uneventful. The extent to which November serves to disrupt functioning of the federal government or fuel further civil unrest remains to be seen and, frankly, is the most significant tail risk as we ponder potential outcomes.
I’m open to the ‘sell the rumour, buy the fact trade’ but skeptical that it’s even possible to price in uncertainty in that way. Uncertainty is — by definition — something that persists for an indefinite amount of time. If Trump refuses to concede even on a clear loss, he will still have a strong political base and I expect him to use it to dog Biden for years. It’s a question of how far he’s willing to go and with Trump, the sky is the limit.
The ‘buy the fact’ trade relies on an eventual return to Obama-era levels of civility (which isn’t saying much) but I just don’t think that’s coming.
An opinion piece in the Financial Times that gives a heads up for a fiery debate with Biden.
Trump’s back is to the wall
his taxes … it does increase the likelihood that Cyrus Vance, the New York District Attorney, will bring a criminal prosecution for tax fraud
being president gives Mr Trump personal immunity and shields him from his lenders
incentive to stay in office is pretty much existential. I don’t believe this has been true of any other president in US history. All of which means he’s likely to play even dirtier than normal in tonight’s debate, which is saying something
The headline and article will upset Trump supporters. A heads up, if you’d like to argue the points please you are more than welcome to do so. Being upset and posting personal attacks on others commenting at the site will not be tolerated. Leave the dirty games to these chaps.