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Biden says preliminary intelligence contests missile that hit Poland was fired from Russia

US President Biden speaking.

  • Says he briefed NATO, G7 members on his talks with Poland
  • Leaders have agreed to support investing to figure out exactly what happened
  • Leaders will then determine next steps after finding out what ahppened
  • Russia continues to escalate its attacks in Ukraine
  • There is preliminary information that contests whether Poland incident was due to a missile fired from Russia
  • Based on the trajectory its unlikely the missile was fired from Russia

Japan chief cabinet secretary Matsuno warns of a possible North Korean nuclear test

Japan chief cabinet secretary Matsuno says now that its possible North Korea will take further provocative actions, such as conducting a nuclear weapons test.

I think that is a solid bet indeed.

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The North Korean test today had the ballistic missile tracking over Japan’s Hokkaido and landing in the Pacific Ocean outside Japan’s economic zone.

North Korea

US President Biden says US military would defend Taiwan in the event of invasion by China

US President Biden is speaking in an interview on US TV, 60 minutes.

  • We are going to get control of inflation
  • I am more optimistic than I have been in a long time
  • Ukraine is not losing the war, is making gains in certain areaws
  • US forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion

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The defence of Taiwan comment is sure to raise eyebrows and I suspect the White House will issue some sort of retraction or clarification or muddying of the waters.

biden

US State Department says that Iran’s response to nuclear deal ‘not constructive’

  • A US State Department spokesperson said the United States had received Iran’s response to the EU bid to revive the 2015 deal and would formulate its own response.
    “We are studying it and will respond through the EU, but unfortunately it is not constructive,” the State Department spokesperson said.
  • Iran sent its reply to the EU on Thursday after careful examination, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said in a statement on Telegram. “The sent text has a constructive approach with the aim of finalizing the negotiations,” the statement said.

This new news from the US Star=te Dept should act as a tailwind for oil (check out that link above to my earlier post for why)

Iran says “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” on nuclear deal

This has been dragging on for the longest of time and latest talks are that a deal is “imminent” again with reports suggesting that Iran has dropped demands related to delisting several companies tied to the IRGC – a key sticking point in discussions previously. But from the messaging above, it remains to be seen if we are actually seeing any real progress. Or if this is just another rodeo ride.

Ongoing criminal investigations, including the FBI’s search for Trump.

While not directly applicable to forex, the news of a judge granting a search warrant to the FBI given probably cause of criminal behaviour is attracting a lot of interest. Given Trump’s close links to Putin and other nefarious actors, his attempts at a coup, his leading of a violent cop-killing insurrection, and other activites, there could be more to this than meets the eye. I guess we’ll find out in time.

Reuters have a recap up of all the legal investigations into former President Trump. Allegations include:

  • boxes of White House documents from Trump’s Florida home, some of which contained classified materials
  • trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat
  • obstruct any official proceeding
  • raised some $250 million from supporters to advance fraudulent claims in court that he won the election, but steered much of the money elsewhere
  • efforts to influence the Georgia’s 2020 election results

The list goes on, Reuters link is here for more.

The ex-Prez playing golf a few weeks ago.

trump 29 July 2022

Moody’s has cut Italy’s outlook to ‘negative’ (from ‘stable’)

EUR traders will be keeping an eye on Italian politics ahead of the September 25 election.

Italian politics are volatile, an alliance formed late last week has been called off already:

ver the weekend (late Friday to be more accurate), Moody’s:

  • affirmed Italy’s sovereign rating at Baa3
  • cut Italy’s outlook to “negative” from “stable”

The agency citing:

  • “Risks to Italy’s credit profile have been accumulating more recently because of the economic impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and domestic political developments, both of which could have material credit implications”
  • higher funding costs
  • increased risk that energy supply challenges would weaken economic prospects
  • sluggish growth may pressure Italy’s fiscal strength.
Italy euro is likely to hike it budget deficit target again

North Korea has tested explosive devices and begun other activity at nuclear test site

Via a draft UN report obtained by Japaneses media (Nikkei), North Korea has tested explosive devices and begun digging new underground tunnels at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site

Tensions are high in Asia, China’s Communicst Party has gone full North Korea, lobbing five missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone, according a statement from Japanese defence minister Nobuo Kishi.

china japan missiles 4 August 2022
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