BOJ governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, begins his press conference
- But Japanese economy remains in an extremely severe siituation
- Pace of recovery to only be moderate
- Inflation is likely to be negative for the time being
- Future economic developments remain extremely unclear
- Risks are tilted to the downside for prices, economic growth
- BOJ won’t hesitate to ease further if needed
- Will continue to support corporate financing, markets
Kuroda is still maintaining a more subdued take on the economic situation but that is hardly a surprise. The recent economic data from Japan have been rather poor and a possible virus resurgence only adds to more risks surrounding the outlook.
But Kuroda stands firm in assuring that the BOJ policies since March are having an impact, though I’m sure they pretty much lucked out on this one with the Fed and ECB doing most of the heavy lifting to appease financial risks in the market for the most part.
As was noted during the US time zone, EUR/USD pierced 1.14. A factor that appears to have flown under the radar is this sign of (continued) aggressive policy support from the ECB, that is:
- ECB corporate bond-buying was up 3.3bn EUR last week, which is around 400m higher than the previous record high over the past 4 years operation of the Bank’s corporate bond purchasing program
ps, ICYMI, the EU Recovery Fund will be the discussion point of note for markets in the ECB meeting Thursday
- financing totalling up to EUR750 bn, split between grants of EUR500 billion and loans of EUR250 billion
- Netherlands, Austria Denmark and Sweden want to reduce the amount of funds distributed as grants
Moody’s not interested in a lawsuit
Print all you like, spend all you like. No one is downgrading the USA after S&P did and the government sued them for $1.5B for mortgages. Even the company knew what it was all about
At the same time, a country that prints its own money can’t default. But they can devalue.
Bloomberg report on Japanese investors, facing ongoing negative rates domestically, are buying dollars and risk assets
- “The presence of the Japanese as the main carry trade driver seems to be growing as they must turn to overseas investments”
Demand for higher-yielding American assets growing
- In April, Japan’s money managers bought the most U.S. corporate debt in eight years and the second-highest amount of equities in five years
- “Japanese investors use yen to fund purchases of Treasuries or U.S. corporate bonds, for instance, to seek credit spreads and these flows are continuing,” said Koichi Sugisaki, a strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. in Tokyo.
Check out USD/JPY … its net more or less unchanged, even a little lower, since November last year …. Without all the Japanese money leaving yen into USD it’d have to be lower I guess?
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on India’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Negative from Stable and affirmed the rating at ‘BBB-‘.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The revision of the Outlook to Negative on India’s Long-Term IDRs reflects the following key rating drivers:
The coronavirus pandemic has significantly weakened India’s growth outlook for this year and exposed the challenges associated with a high public-debt burden. Fitch expects economic activity to contract by 5% in the fiscal year ending March 2021 (FY21) from the strict lockdown measures imposed since 25 March 2020, before rebounding by 9.5% in FY22. The rebound will mainly be driven by a low-base effect. Our forecasts are subject to considerable risks due to the continued acceleration in the number of new COVID-19 cases as the lockdown is eased gradually. It remains to be seen whether India can return to sustained growth rates of 6% to 7% as we previously estimated, depending on the lasting impact of the pandemic, particularly in the financial sector.
The humanitarian and health needs have been pressing, but the government has shown expenditure restraint so far, due to the already high public-debt burden going into the crisis, with additional relief spending representing only about 1% of GDP by our estimates. Most elements of an announced package totalling 10% of GDP are non-fiscal in nature. Some further fiscal spending of up to 1 percentage point of GDP may still be announced in the next few months, which was indicated by a recent announcement of additional borrowing for FY21 of 2% of GDP, although we do not expect a steep rise in spending. (more…)
Roach is a former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman and is now a senior fellow at Yale University.
- “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit”
- “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.”
Roach spoke in an interview with CNBC, called for a 35% fall in the dollar.
- “These problems are going from bad to worse as we blow out the fiscal deficit in the years ahead”
On a broad sense most commonly used algorithmic strategies are Momentum strategies, as the names indicate the algorithm start execution based on a given spike or given moment. The algorithm basically detects the moment (e.g spike) and executed by and sell order as to how it has been programmed.
One another popular strategy is Mean-Reversion algorithmic strategy. This algorithm assumes that prices usually deviate back to its average.
A more sophisticated type of algo trading is a market-making strategy, these algorithms are known as liquidity providers. Market Making strategies aim to supply buy and sell orders in order to fill the order book and make a certain instrument in a market more liquid. Market Making strategies are designed to capture the spread between buying and selling price and ultimately decrease the spread.
Another advanced and complex algorithmic strategy is Arbitrage algorithms. These algorithms are designed to detect mispricing and spread inefficiencies among different markets. Basically, Arbitrage algorithms find the different prices among two different markets and buy or sell orders to take advantage of the price difference.
Among big investment banks and hedge funds trading with high frequency is also a popular practice. A great deal of all trades executed globally is done with high-frequency trading. The main aim of high-frequency trading is to perform trades based on market behaviors as fast and as scalable as possible. Though, high-frequency trading requires solid and somewhat expensive infrastructure. Firms that would like to perform trading with high frequency need to collocate their servers that run the algorithm near the market they are executing to minimize the latency as much as possible.
Adaptive Implementation Shortfall algorithm designed for reduction of market impact during executing large orders. It allows keeping trading plans with automatic reactions to price liquidity.
Basket Orders is a strategy designed to automated parallel trading of many assets, balancing their share in the portfolio’s value.
Bollinger bands strategy is a trading algorithm that computes three bands – lower, middle and upper. When the middle band crosses one of the other from the proper side then some order is made.