Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.09% at 23,410.19

The Nikkei is barely changed as markets stay tepid to start the week

Nikkei 10-12

It has been a quiet session for Asian stocks as markets are staying more cautious and reserved today in anticipation of key risk events still to follow later in the week.

The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are also trading at flat levels currently with little change observed in US futures and bond yields as well to start the day.
The overall risk mood is more flat after some bit-part losses seen in equities overnight as traders and investors are keeping their focus on key central bank meetings, the UK election and US-China trade developments still.
As such, USD/JPY is mired in a 11 pips range holding at 108.63 currently. The rest of the major currencies bloc is also little changed as trading ranges remain narrow.

European shares end the session lower

US shares move back into the negative as well

The major European markets are now closed and are closing lower on the day.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.45%
  • France’s CAC, -0.58%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.13%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.27%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.97%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are also trading lower today led by a -7.2 basis point decline in the Italian issue.
US shares move back into the negative as well_
In other markets, US stocks are back in the red after a run higher into positive territory ran on steam:
  • S&P index, -0.05%
  • NASDAQ index, -0.05%
  • Dow industrial average, -0.22%
In the US debt market, US yields are now mixed with the 2 year up 1.0 basis point and the 10 year down -1.4 basis points.
US yields are mixed

European equities keep more flat to start the day

Little change at the open to start the new week

  • Eurostoxx -0.1%
  • Germany DAX -0.1%
  • France CAC 40 flat
  • UK FTSE -0.2%
  • Italy MIB +0.1%
The risk mood remains more steady as we begin the session, leaving little movement among European stocks as we begin the day. It’s a bit of a waiting game right now as we look towards key central bank meetings and possibly further trade developments during the week.

European indices down on the week but up today

Major indices like a strong US and hopes for China US progress

The major European indices are ending the the week mostly lower. However, they are higher in trading today. Markets are liking the strong US job growth (good for global growth) and hopes that US, China trade progress can continue.

The provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, +0.88%
  • France’s CAC, +1.08%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.45%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.60%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.9%
For the week, apart from the Spain’s Ibex, the major indices are ending with declines:
  • German DAX, -0.5%
  • France’s CAC -0.7%
  • UK’s FTSE MIB -1.5%
  • Spain’s Ibex +0.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3%
In the benchmark 10 year notes today, the yields are mixed. Germany France yields are marginally higher. UK Italy and Portugal yields are marginally lower. And Spanish yields are unchanged on the day.
European benchmark yields are mixed today
A snapshot of other markets as London/European traders look to exit are showing:
  • Spot gold down – $-16.60 or -1.12% at $1459.40. The stronger US job report has strengthened the US dollar and helped to send go price is to the downside
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading up $0.74 or 1.27% at $59.17. After muddling along near unchanged levels, the prospects for stronger growth and OPEC production cuts has the contract moving back to the upside
In the US stock market, the major indices trade near high levels for the day:
  • S&P index up 32.37 points or 1.04% at 3149.86
  • NASDAQ index up 84.6 points or 0.99% at 8655.34
  • Dow is up 335 points or 1.21% at 28012
In the US debt market, yields are modestly higher despite the strong jobs report (off high levels).
US yields are higher on the day
Forex markets, the USD is stronger but remains lower vs the NZD and the JPY.  The CAD is the weakest after their employment report showed net job losses at the highest since 2009 and a spike higher and the unemployment rate to 5.9% from 5.5%.

European shares end the session mixed but near the lows for the day

German Dax -0.65%.  UK FTSE -0.7%

The major European shares are ending the session with mixed results but near lows for the day.  The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.65%
  • France’s CAC, unchanged
  • UK’s FTSE, -0.70%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.16%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.28%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20, +0.1%
Meanwhile in the US, the major indices are also lower but they are off the lows for the day.  Below are the changes in ranges on a percentage basis for the major European and US stock indices.
German Dax -0.65%.  UK FTSE -0.7%_

European shares close higher on the day

Solid gains in most of the major indices

the European shares are rebounding in trading today and closing with solid gains. Apart from the UK FTSE 100 the major indices are up over 1.1%. The gains are well off the lows and closer to the session highs for each.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +1.13%. Biggest gain in one month
  • France’s CAC, +1.27%. Biggest one-day gain in 2 months
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.28%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +1.44%. Biggest one-day gain in 2 months
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +1.31%
  • Portugal PSI 20, +1.78%
US shares are also recovering in trading today with the Dow Jones and S&P index currently up around 0.77%. The NASDAQ index is up 0.66%.

European equity close: UK stocks slump

Closing changes for the main European bourses:

  • UK FTSE -0.7%
  • German DAX flat
  • French CAC -0.1%
  • Spain IBEX -0.3%
  • Italy MIB -0.3%
On the week:
  • UK FTSE +0.4%
  • German DAX +0.6%
  • French CAC +0.2%
  • Spain IBEX +1.1%
  • Italy MIB +0.1%
It was a solid week in European equities and around the globe even with today’s pullback.

European equity close: Stocks slide on trade worries

Futures turned negative after Trump signed the Hong Kong bill

There wasn’t much drama today in European stocks but the pressure was all to the downside:
  • UK FTSE 100 -0.2%
  • French CAC -0.3%
  • Spain IBEX flat
  • German DAX -0.35%
  • Italy MIB -0.7%

Global stock market rally has further to run in 2020 – Reuters poll

But much depends on the US-China trade war still

Poll

The bias has turned more favourable in the most recent poll with a slim majority of respondents (53/102) viewing that risks to the outlook are now skewed more to the upside.

In comparison, just three months ago, a clear majority of respondents (69/97) viewed that risks to the outlook were skewed more to the downside instead.
A lot of this of course owes to the more optimistic US-China trade rhetoric, as both countries look to move closer towards a trade truce by the end of this year.
Among those who answered an additional question in the poll, 50 respondents said the bull run in the stock market will end within a year with 40 respondents saying that it would within the next two years.
That shows that sentiment is leaning more towards the bull run still going strong although I reckon its strength may not be as what we are seeing this year.
I mean with stretched valuations, flagging global growth and more political uncertainty i.e. US elections all at play next year, the S&P 500 may find it tough to post another 25% year like this one and so will its peers.