Archives of “January 20, 2019” day

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Taleb Says ‘Every Human’ Should Short U.S. Treasuries

  
Analysis, Education
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TalebFeb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said “every single human being” should bet U.S. Treasury bonds will decline, citing the policies of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Obama administration.

It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”

Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific. Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the credit crisis, also said at the conference that the U.S. dollar will weaken against Asian and “commodity” currencies such as the Brazilian real over the next two or three years.

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India 1854 Inverted Head Variety

  
Education, Investment
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The classic 1854 inverted head variety set a new world record yesterday at Spink. The stamp, part of the Vestey collection auctioned off on October 13th, 2010 brought in a record GBP 105,390. The stamp was cut to shape. Twenty seven copies of this world famous rarity are known, only 3 of these were cut square. Image is courtesy of Spink. Entire catalog can be downloaded from: http://www.spink.com/auctions/pdf/default.asp

Why Trading is Difficult

  
  Education
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difficult-11. Need to internalize lots of trading simulation of specific set-ups in real-time to trade effortlessly
2. Need to trust money management system to weather +10 losses in a row
3. Tuff to internalize that its the 5-6 huge monthly runners that is the big pay-off days
4. Must master +3 trade set-ups to make money consistently month to month.
5. It takes considerable time to mathematically think and act like a trader
6. Trading is a performance skill which requires mastery of every element of trading
7. It requires time capital and considerable effort to achieve the experience to make it effortless and automatic
8. It takes several attempts at different trading methodology to sync with a trader’s personality and cognitive strengths
9. It takes time to set and internalize specific rules that embed a sense of mastery
10. To survive in trading requires weathering the lengthy learning curve

Cofnas, Sentiment Indicators -Book review

  
  Education

The Crossley Bird ID Guide is, to my mind, a good segway to Abe Cofnas’s Sentiment Indicators: Renko, Price Break, Kagi, Point and Figure: What They Are and How to Use Them to Trade (Bloomberg Press, 2010). Cofnas contends that the best way to use the chart types he describes is “in tandem with candlesticks” because “using all five charting methods together [will] generate enhanced confirmations of key price points.” (p. 8)

Each chart type has a “best use” in trading. The price break chart is best at detecting the beginning of a trend, projecting reversal points, and confirming cycle turning points. The Renko chart detects “micro changes in sentiment and momentum.” The point and figure chart shows support and resistance lines, projects breakout ranges, and balances bulls and bears. And the Kagi chart is good at timing the turnover of sentiment. (p. 7) Let’s look very briefly at the first two types of charts here.

Price break charts, available on Bloomberg Professional workstations but easily programmable on other platforms (Cofnas spells out the construction logic), are often known as three-line break charts, although there’s nothing sacrosanct about the number three. They could be set up as six-line break charts just as easily. The idea is that “a series of black columns will be followed by a white column if the high of the previous [x-number of] black columns is broken by the new price. … A black column is added if the low of the previous [x-number of] white columns is broken.” (p. 23)

Cofnas explains how to understand the strength of price movement using price break charts and describes trading strategies (focusing on entries). He also looks at combining cycle analysis with price break charts, describes multiple market applications of price break charts, and explores the use of price break charts in option trading. (more…)

Nifty Future :4803 last Hope for Idiot Bulls

  
Analysis, Education

Break below this level will create panic selling.

-Three Consecutive close below 4803 level……Next Target 4667-4621.

–Major Support :4501

 (Three Close below this level+Weekly close below 4501 )….Then ????

*Remember ,What I had written on 28th ,29th ,30th April.Exit and Sell everything.

*Will see Unexpected levels by May end and 15th June.

*101% Again writing…..Sell Sell Sell.Once it will break and close below 4501….then ??

*If I will write………….then Idiots will Laugh ,Jokers will comment.

Updated at 13:08/25th May/Baroda

Hope, Fear and Greed

  
  Education
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hopegreedfearThe spectator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

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