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Subbarao fears fiscal deficit to fuel next crisis

RBI GOVERNER

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, Duvvuri Subbarao, expressed fear that the next financial debacle could stem from a currency crisis or from the way the government handles its ‘stimulus exit’. Speaking at the first International Research Conference organised by RBI here on Saturday, Subbarao said,

“I worry that in resolving this financial crisis, perhaps we are sowing the seeds of the next crisis. Next crisis could be a currency or a fiscal crisis.” The central banker, however, denied that RBI would back out from its commitment to full convertibility of rupee but would impart flexibility to its pre-determined course in the light of the recent global economic developments.

Participating in a panel discussion, the RBI governor said the developed economies may fail to wind down their borrowings, leading to cyclical deficits morphing into ‘structural fiscal deficits’, affecting the system as a whole. In the wake of global credit crisis, following the US sub-prime crisis in 2008, many governments and central banks pumped in huge funds and resorted to low-interest-rate monetary policies, for boosting their sagging economies. These have resulted in bloating of fiscal deficits. (more…)

Taleb Says ‘Every Human’ Should Short U.S. Treasuries

TalebFeb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said “every single human being” should bet U.S. Treasury bonds will decline, citing the policies of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Obama administration.

It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”

Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific. Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the credit crisis, also said at the conference that the U.S. dollar will weaken against Asian and “commodity” currencies such as the Brazilian real over the next two or three years.

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MSCI goes beyond BRICs

MSCI has launched the MSCI EM Beyond BRIC Index, a new subset of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

The new index comprises seventeen countries and excludes the ‘BRIC’ economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which currently represent around 40% of the wider emerging markets index. MSCI said the new index offered a way to ‘track and evaluate the emerging markets opportunity set for those wishing to invest in countries outside the BRIC region’.

The index is market cap weighted, but the weighting towards the larger markets of Korea, South Africa and Taiwan is capped on a quarterly basis at 15% to ensure greater diversification. This gives greater prominence to smaller emerging market countries.

As it stands, after Korea, South Africa and Taiwan, the largest weightings in the index will be towards Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Chile, Columbia, the Philippines, Turkey and Poland all have a weighting in excess of 2%.

Performance comparison (more…)

Ray Dalio eclipses George Soros as most successful fund manager

Bridgewater founder with ‘radically transparent’ approach to investing has the last laugh

Almost 40 years ago, a young Harvard graduate called Ray Dalio was trading futures at a brokerage called Shearson Hayden Stone. His boss was one Sandy Weill, who would go on to become famous as chairman and chief executive of Citigroup.

It was a promising start in finance. But the promise did not last long: Wall Street legend has it that after just a year in the job Dalio was sacked for taking a stripper to a client presentation.

Such a debut could have led to the rookie drifting off into obscurity – or just as easily have been the beginning of prolonged fame. Yet neither happened.

Instead, the son of a jazz musician sloped off and founded his own hedge fund, Bridgewater, from a two-bedroom apartment. It took three decades operating out of Westport, Connecticut before people outside the sector started to talk about Dalio once again.

The credit crisis was the trigger that propelled the money manager’s name back into Wall Street conversation, after providing him with the platform to outshine rivals and reap massive rewards.

This week the 62-year-old’s fortune was put at $10bn (£6.3bn) in Forbes’s latest list of billionaires. Last month he was lauded as the most successful hedge fund manager in history, after new rankings compiled by LCH Investments showed the $13.8bn that his Bridgewater Pure Alpha fund made in 2011 had propelled Dalio past the grandaddy of hedge fund investing, George Soros, in terms of returns to investors. (more…)

European Debt And Credit Crisis Video Explanation

Have come across this video on Europe and the Euro problems quite a few times during the last few days: ‘Clarke and Dawe ask the million dollar question’. For those of you who haven’t seen it yet, enjoy. The video speaks for itself. No further comment needed.