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Taleb Says ‘Every Human’ Should Short U.S. Treasuries

TalebFeb. 4 (Bloomberg) — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said “every single human being” should bet U.S. Treasury bonds will decline, citing the policies of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Obama administration.

It’s “a no brainer” to sell short Treasuries, Taleb, a principal at Universa Investments LP in Santa Monica, California, said at a conference in Moscow today. “Every single human being should have that trade.”

Taleb said investors should bet on a rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, as long as Bernanke and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers are in office, without being more specific. Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the credit crisis, also said at the conference that the U.S. dollar will weaken against Asian and “commodity” currencies such as the Brazilian real over the next two or three years.

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5 Lessons From Legendary Traders: Michael Marcus

Lesson #1: Each Trader has A Distinct Style
“You also have to follow your own light. Because I have so many friends who are talented traders, I often have to remind myself that if I try to trade their way, or on their ideas, I am going to lose. Every trader has strengths and weaknesses. Some are good holders of winners, but may hold their losers a little too long. Others may cut their winners a little short, but are quick to take their losses. As long as you stick to your own style, you get the good and the bad in your own approach. When you try to incorporate someone else’s style, you often wind up with the worst of both styles. I’ve done that a lot.”
This is a very important point: You have to find out your strength and weaknesses and develop a trading style that suits your personality best. If you are good at holding winners – trade trend-following systems. If you are comfortable with several consecutive small losses and several big wins – trade chart patterns. If you are highly disciplined and not too aggressive – you could focus only on high-quality trades which come rarely. Let your personality choose your trading style.

Lesson #2: Always Use Stops
“Always use stops. I mean actually put them in, because that commits you to get out at a certain point”
This one’s a no-brainer, but worth mentioning. Many beginners tend to discard stop losses after seeing several trades touching their stop loss and then continuing in their direction. Very wrong approach. Putting stop loss is crucial for your trading success and performance. If you stop loss is placed in logical place (A.K.A: Support or Resistance level), you should have no reason not to respect it – if price touched it, the basis for your position has voided and staying in the position is highly risky. Also, always have an emergency stop in case of sudden news or catastrophe. (more…)