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3 Books

Last week , I plucked two behavioral finance books out of airport bookstores. Apparently Blink has triggered a new title and jacket aesthetic, as both of these books look as if they could have been companion volumes.

The quickest read of the bunch, Sway: The Irresistable Pull of Irrational Behavior (Ori Brafman and Rom Brafman), can easily be polished off in a three-hour flight. Frankly, this is the book’s main attraction, but also its weakness. Here is an entertaining read that provides a vignette-centric approach to illuminating the decision-making shortfalls humans are prone to making. Theories and conclusions are loosely woven around the vignettes to provide structure and coherence, yet most of these are self-explanatory from the examples. Sway has the readability of Freakonomics and is just as likely to be consumed in one sitting, but ultimately does little more than whet the appetite for anyone with an interest in getting to the full menu of behavioral finance. As an hors d’oeuvre, however, it is most enjoyable.

At first glance, Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth and Happiness (Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein), looks to be an only slightly heartier meal. In fact, Nudge retains the readability of Sway, but is much more comprehensive, better organized and yet has the heft of an academic introduction to behavioral finance. Nudge will probably require an overseas flight to digest, and is better suited for savoring over the course of multiple sittings.

In another league entirely is the encyclopedic Choices, Values, and Frames (Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky), which is a comprehensive collection of articles that represent the definitive thinking on much of the field of behavioral finance, which Kahneman and Tversky were instrumental in establishing. One could argue that Choices, Values, and Frames was the book which was largely responsible for Kahneman being awarded the Nobel Prize following Tversky’s death. This book is a densely packed buffet of ideas that is probably best consumed in small chunks over the course of weeks or months. It is not necessarily an easy read, but the ideas and research that went into it and the reflection and rethinking of the investment world that come out of it make it one of the most influential books in the realm of finance and investments.

A common trait you'll see among the world's best investors

In 1968, a self-described “gun-slinging nitwit,” fresh out of Harvard Business School, Grantham played the go-go market at its peak. By 1970, he had lost all of his money. “I like to say I got wiped out before anyone else knew the bear market started,” Grantham recalled years later.

Think about that. The man who today relentlessly warns of risk began his investing career by losing all of his money and then sitting through a 12-year bear market.

What lasting impact did this have on his outlook? How did this experience influence his opinion of markets today?

Likely, a lot.

People like to assume they can think objectively. But you and I are just a product of the experiences we’ve had in life. And most of those experiences were random and out of our control. Would Grantham hold his bearish stance if, by luck, he began his investing career at the start of a bull market? Or doubled his money his first year out of college, rather than losing it all?

There’s evidence to suggest the answer is “no.” (more…)

EVERY OUTCOME IS PRECEDED BY A PROCESS

Van Tharp3Every outcome is preceded by a process. You will not make money trading unless you follow a predetermined plan and continually stick to that plan. That’s why you should pat yourself on the back every day if you can honestly say that you totally followed your rules throughout the day. Every “Market Wizard” arrives at that stature by taking one trade at a time. The primary difference between that person and the average trader is that the Market Wizard probably continued to follow his plan every single day. 

The Virtue of Patience

patienceWaiting for the right opportunity increases the probability of success. You don’t always have to be in the market. As Edwin Lefevre put it in his classic Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, “There is the plain fool who does the wrong thing at all times anywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool who thinks he must trade all the time.”
One of the more colorful descriptions of patience in trading was offered by Jim Rogers in Market Wizards: “I just wait until there is money lying in the comer, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up.” In other words, until he is so sure of a trade that it seems as easy as picking money off the floor, he does nothing.

Universal Principles of Successful Trading Review

This book is excellent for traders that are ready for it. You need a foundation in trading to understand its importance and take the principles seriously. Once you are through the rainbow and butterfly phase of trading and realize that you will not be a millionaire in a year, this book will help you get focused and get serious about your trading and what really works.
Here are the six universal principles of successful traders:

1). Preparation

Author Brent Penfold is in the minority believing risk management is the #1 priority in trading. Brent believes that once you get your trading system and position size in place you must use the amount you will risk on each trade to determine your risk of ruin. The book shows exactly how to figure this out using Excel. His point is that if your risk of ruin is not zero then you will eventually blow out your account. Risking 1% to 2% of your capital in any one trade usually gives you a zero percent risk of ruin but it also depends on your systems win/loss ratio. But the point is to test any system with 30 trades first then determine your risk of ruin.

2). Enlightenment

Your most important goal is to lower your risk ruin to zero. In trading, the trader with the best ability to cut losses short wins. Simple trading strategies work the best based on traditional support and resistance while trading with the trend on either retracements of break outs. The 10% of winners in the market win by treading where others fear, buying on break outs when they first occur and going short when a new low is made, or buying into the abyss when a security finds support or resistance and reverses at the end of a monster trend.

3). Developing a trading style

You must choose your own personal style of trading, swing trading or trend trading. You must also trade based on your chosen time frame: intraday, short term, medium term, or long term.

4). Selecting Markets

Ideal markets to trade have volume and price transparency, liquidity, 24 hour coverage, zero counter party risk, low transaction costs, and are honest and efficient. They also must  have the necessary trading attributes of volatility, research, simplicity, ease of short selling, specialization, opportunities, growth, and leverage. These are the markets that afford you the greatest chances of money trading. (more…)

Spain Sells 3 Year Bonds At 3.717%, 119 bps Higher Than Prior Auction

For a demonstration of the unsustainable course that European sovereign funding is on, look no further than Spain, where earlier the government auctioned off €2.468 billion in three year notes for a whopping 3.717%. The bid to cover was 2.27 compared to 2.16 in October, and it was reported that foreign buyers bid above 60% of the auction (which means the ECB funded domestic banks bought about 40%). However, the same issued priced at 2.527% at the last sale on Oct. 7, a 119 bps difference. Still it wasn’t all bad, considering the bond had traded at almost 4% in recent days. As Reuters reports: “Analysts and bond market players had predicted a leap of as much as 2 percentage points in yields, but Madrid’s situation has been helped by mounting expectations the European Central Bank will step up extraordinary measures to contain the crisis.” The problem for Spain is that it has minimized the amount of debt it is issuing during turbulent times: “The Treasury had cut the amount of bonds on offer in order to trim financing costs as it faces down market doubts on whether it can bring down its deficit due to sluggish economic growth and persistent concerns it might need to bailout its debt-laden banks.” And the problem for the ECB is that it most likely, as many analysts are predicting, will not announce anything of substance, as otherwise the ECB will have to monetize up to €1.5 trillion in total debt and interest through the end of 2011. The result for the EUR will inevitably be disastrous in either case, and if in 25 minutes JCT indeed announces nothing, look for all those who bid up the bond auction earlier to be tearing out their hair as the 3 Year promptly passes 4%.

Trading: The Difference Between Playing Offense & Defense

The sooner traders learn to carefully manage risk the better off they will be. So many new traders come in with only the thoughts of profits dancing in their heads. This is equivalent to a football team only focusing on scoring points and not planning their defense.In trading you must play both sides of the ball. You have to be able to score points against the market and not allow the market to score back those points on you.

Your entries are your offense and your exits are your defense.

Letting a winner run is your offense, cutting your loser short is your defense.

Your automatic buy stop is your offense and your automatic stop loss is your defense.

Buying a monster stock is an offensive move, planning on how you will exit with your profits is your defensive move.

Identifying a trend is your offensive play creating a trading plan on how to trade it is your defensive play.

Your choice on what to trade is playing offense, choosing your position size is playing defense.

Your watch list is playing offense choosing how much capital to risk on any one trade is playing defense.

In trading your wins are not permanent and your profits can be taken back, when you score you have to next ensure that you are not scored on. The goal of keeping your profits has to be far above the desire for making quick money with big risk.

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