The Little book of trading is a must read for trend followers. Michael Covel brings down to all of us what is needed in order to succeed in trend following:
Some of the quotes need to be internalized by investors of trend following strategies..
Trend traders are trying to capture risk premium from the hedgers. […]
Hedgers hope to minimize their exposure to unwanted risk. Speculators (i.e. trend followers assume risk for hedgers. […]
Hedgers are net losers in futures markets over the long run, and Druz’s trend trading approach is based on capturing this risk premium.
The more robust a system, the more volatile it tends to be!
There are whole families of trend trading ideas that seem to work forever on any market. The down side is they are very volatile because they are not curve-fitted.
Hite has two basic rules about trading and life:
1) If you don’t bet, you can’t win.
2) If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet
While entry and exit is an overwhelming focus for new traders, it is only a small part of the recipe for winning in the trend follower’s cookbook. Money management is far more imperative to your success than worrying about a perfect entry.
Vandergrift, like many of the trend following traders, found through intense research that the only systems that really worked over time were long term trend following in nature. However, his real Aha! moment came when he put money managementinto his trading system equation. […] If you have a portfolio of markets, […] you want t risk an equal amount on every trade.
You want to look for trend following models that remain robust over long time periods and you want to include models that have flat to negative performance for periods of up to two years. The principles that allow a good model to work successfully may fall out of favour and stop working for a period of time, but if the model has validity, the long-term principles will reassert themselves over time. Don’t jump the gun in throwing away your models.
In order for a model to be accepted, you want it to trade all markets using the same rules and parameters. Your results should yield good performance across 90-plus percent of all markets tested. Also, no model should be accepted unless it shows stability of performance during tests involved with shifting parameters and altering rules. This is the definition of robust.
Don’t get caught up constantly trying to lower your risks. Think of yourself as running a risk targeting business where you go find risk. No risk, no reward!
I think the efficient market hypothesis is quite useful too. One prediction it makes is that it is difficult to beat the markets. It’s just saying that the markets know better than you do. So the assumption that the markets know better than you do is quite a sensible and useful assumption. It certainly would lead you to approach [beating the markets] with humility and modesty.
Determination is the same as having wings. If at first you don’t succeed, try, try, and try again. Madonna always says, ‘I’m like a cockroach.’