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Trading is simple. The trader is complicated

Here is a very short list of comments from very reliable sources—successful professional traders.

From my collection of Books

 John F. Carter: “It is important to remember that there is no need to spend wasted years looking for complicated setups or the next Holy Grail.  There are very simple setups out there to use.  Some of the best traders I know have been trading the same setup, on the same time frame, on the same market for 20 years. They don’t care about anything else, and they don’t want to learn about anything else.  This works for them, and they are the masters of this setup.  They have nothing else coming in to interfere with their focus” (p. 31, Mastering the Trade: Proven Techniques for Profiting from Intraday and Swing Trading Setups).

Clifford Bennett: “While there have been some spectacular front-cover traders, the ones who amass fortunes year after year tend to stay in the background. At the very least, they display a simple and down-to-earth approach to markets if they are ever interviewed” (p. 117, Warrior Trading: Inside the Mind of an Elite Currency Trader).

Mark Douglas: “What you want to do is become an expert at just one particular type of behavior pattern that repeats itself with some degree of frequency. To become an expert, choose one simple trading system that identifies a pattern, preferably one that is mechanical, instead of mathematical, so that you will be working with a visual representation of market behavior. Your objective is to understand completely every aspect of the system-all the relationships between the components-and its potential to produce profitable trades.  In the meantime, it is important to avoid all other possibilities and information” (pp. 208-09, The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes).

Marcel Link: “Systems should be kept as simple as possible. Overdoing things doesn’t make a system better; on the contrary, it can take away from a good system.  Trying to make a system too complicated with too many indicators and variables is a common mistake with some traders: some of the best systems are the simplest. As a rule of thumb, a system should fit on the back of an envelope and be easily explained so that someone can understand what every indicator does and every rule does.  Otherwise it’s too complicated.  Always remember the old adage ‘Keep it simple, stupid’ and you’ll be okay” (p 249, High Probability Trading).

George Angell: “One observation I’ve made over the years, which is especially notable on the trading floor, is that everyone who truly succeeds is a specialist. Unlike the novice trader, who may dabble in as many as a dozen different futures contracts, the professional floor trader is identified with just one kind of futures and one specific type of trading…moreover, the professional is identified by his specialty-scalper, short-term trader, spread trader, or whatever.  He does the same thing every day (pp. 10-11, Sniper Trading).

John Murphy: “My work has gotten better due to simplifying my approach.” (KEY TO SUCCESS)

Dennis Gartman:Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance.” (From Dennis Gartman’s Trading Rules List, Rule #12).

Richard Donchian's 20 trading guides

General Guides:

  1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.
  2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.
  3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.
  4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.
  5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.
  6. Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation the the chart formation.
  7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons – a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%.
  8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders.
  9. Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.
  10. Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.
  11. A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

Technical Guides:

  1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected. (more…)

Preparation

There’s only one way to trade at the end of the day, not for recreation or thrill seeking, but with the business intent of running a successful business.

  • Passion to participate in highly competitive environment, with uneven playing field
  • Adequacy of capital
  • Information gathering (technical)
  • Market analysis (markets, sectors, stocks)
  • Development of strategies (the edge)
  • Cost control (trading costs)
  • Ability to employ strategies that match risk tolerance
  • Day-to-day preparation
  • Trade entry, monitoring, and exit with discipline
  • Monitoring progress 
  • Ongoing professional education and learning

Traders Should Have These 5 Qualities

1) Capacity for Prudent Risk-Taking – Successful young traders are neither impulsive nor risk-averse. They are not afraid to go after markets aggressively when they perceive opportunity;
2) Capacity for Rule Governance – Successful young traders have the self-control needed to follow rules in the heat of battle, including rules of position sizing and risk management;
3) Capacity for Sustained Effort – Successful young traders can be identified by the productive time they spend on trading–research, preparation, work on themselves–outside of market hours;
4) Capacity for Emotional Resilience – All young traders will lose money early in their development and experience multiple frustrations. The successful ones will not be quick to lose self-confidence and motivation in the face of loss and frustration;
5) Capacity for Sound Reasoning – Successful young traders exhibit an ability to make sense of markets by synthesizing data and generating market and trading views. They display patience in collecting information and do not jump to conclusions based on superficial reasoning or limited data.

AMAZON’S JEFF BEZOS COMPARES KINDNESS AND CLEVERNESS

Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, recently gave the following remarks to the Princeton Class of 2010.  This is another example of how one short speech for a few can become one giant leap for many.

What do I get out of it?  That as a trader, educator, and coach I must not allow my cleverness to get in the way of my kindness and in so doing I will build a great story…a story that will pay dividends for much longer than any equity curve.  The greater question:  What will it do for you?

Enjoy!

Video Version:  Please note that Bezos speech begins about 6 minutes into this recording.

As a kid, I spent my summers with my grandparents on their ranch in Texas. I helped fix windmills, vaccinate cattle, and do other chores. We also watched soap operas every afternoon, especially “Days of our Lives.” My grandparents belonged to a Caravan Club, a group of Airstream trailer owners who travel together around the U.S. and Canada. And every few summers, we’d join the caravan. We’d hitch up the Airstream trailer to my grandfather’s car, and off we’d go, in a line with 300 other Airstream adventurers. I loved and worshipped my grandparents and I really looked forward to these trips. On one particular trip, I was about 10 years old. I was rolling around in the big bench seat in the back of the car. My grandfather was driving. And my grandmother had the passenger seat. She smoked throughout these trips, and I hated the smell.

At that age, I’d take any excuse to make estimates and do minor arithmetic. I’d calculate our gas mileage — figure out useless statistics on things like grocery spending. I’d been hearing an ad campaign about smoking. I can’t remember the details, but basically the ad said, every puff of a cigarette takes some number of minutes off of your life: I think it might have been two minutes per puff. At any rate, I decided to do the math for my grandmother. I estimated the number of cigarettes per days, estimated the number of puffs per cigarette and so on. When I was satisfied that I’d come up with a reasonable number, I poked my head into the front of the car, tapped my grandmother on the shoulder, and proudly proclaimed, “At two minutes per puff, you’ve taken nine years off your life!”

I have a vivid memory of what happened, and it was not what I expected. I expected to be applauded for my cleverness and arithmetic skills. “Jeff, you’re so smart. You had to have made some tricky estimates, figure out the number of minutes in a year and do some division.” That’s not what happened. Instead, my grandmother burst into tears. I sat in the backseat and did not know what to do. While my grandmother sat crying, my grandfather, who had been driving in silence, pulled over onto the shoulder of the highway. He got out of the car and came around and opened my door and waited for me to follow. Was I in trouble? My grandfather was a highly intelligent, quiet man. He had never said a harsh word to me, and maybe this was to be the first time? Or maybe he would ask that I get back in the car and apologize to my grandmother. I had no experience in this realm with my grandparents and no way to gauge what the consequences might be. We stopped beside the trailer. My grandfather looked at me, and after a bit of silence, he gently and calmly said, “Jeff, one day you’ll understand that it’s harder to be kind than clever.”

What I want to talk to you about today is the difference between gifts and choices. Cleverness is a gift, kindness is a choice. Gifts are easy — they’re given after all. Choices can be hard. You can seduce yourself with your gifts if you’re not careful, and if you do, it’ll probably be to the detriment of your choices.

This is a group with many gifts. I’m sure one of your gifts is the gift of a smart and capable brain. I’m confident that’s the case because admission is competitive and if there weren’t some signs that you’re clever, the dean of admission wouldn’t have let you in.

Your smarts will come in handy because you will travel in a land of marvels. We humans — plodding as we are — will astonish ourselves. We’ll invent ways to generate clean energy and a lot of it. Atom by atom, we’ll assemble tiny machines that will enter cell walls and make repairs. This month comes the extraordinary but also inevitable news that we’ve synthesized life. In the coming years, we’ll not only synthesize it, but we’ll engineer it to specifications. I believe you’ll even see us understand the human brain. Jules Verne, Mark Twain, Galileo, Newton — all the curious from the ages would have wanted to be alive most of all right now. As a civilization, we will have so many gifts, just as you as individuals have so many individual gifts as you sit before me.

How will you use these gifts? And will you take pride in your gifts or pride in your choices?

I got the idea to start Amazon 16 years ago. I came across the fact that Web usage was growing at 2,300 percent per year. I’d never seen or heard of anything that grew that fast, and the idea of building an online bookstore with millions of titles — something that simply couldn’t exist in the physical world — was very exciting to me. I had just turned 30 years old, and I’d been married for a year. I told my wife MacKenzie that I wanted to quit my job and go do this crazy thing that probably wouldn’t work since most startups don’t, and I wasn’t sure what would happen after that. MacKenzie (also a Princeton grad and sitting here in the second row) told me I should go for it. As a young boy, I’d been a garage inventor. I’d invented an automatic gate closer out of cement-filled tires, a solar cooker that didn’t work very well out of an umbrella and tinfoil, baking-pan alarms to entrap my siblings. I’d always wanted to be an inventor, and she wanted me to follow my passion.

I was working at a financial firm in New York City with a bunch of very smart people, and I had a brilliant boss that I much admired. I went to my boss and told him I wanted to start a company selling books on the Internet. He took me on a long walk in Central Park, listened carefully to me, and finally said, “That sounds like a really good idea, but it would be an even better idea for someone who didn’t already have a good job.” That logic made some sense to me, and he convinced me to think about it for 48 hours before making a final decision. Seen in that light, it really was a difficult choice, but ultimately, I decided I had to give it a shot. I didn’t think I’d regret trying and failing. And I suspected I would always be haunted by a decision to not try at all. After much consideration, I took the less safe path to follow my passion, and I’m proud of that choice. (more…)

10 Trading Mistakes

1. Under capitalization – One of the first mistake I made when beginning to trade was being under capitalized. I started with a $10K account without any idea on how to trade. You need enough capital to learn and gain the experience. Some like to call the initial stake “market tuition.” If you can avoid paying your dues, great for you. But most new traders will lose their money. Just make sure you learn from every loss.

2. Having the approach to trading as a “learn as you trade” – Big mistake. “Learn as you trade” = losing money. Losing money can lead to emotional and financial stress and may even create enough fear in you making it hard to trade. Make sure you come prepared to the battlefield. Be a strategist. Sun Tzu said, “The battle is won before it is fought.” Think about it.

3. Trading as a hobby – Take a look at your hobbies. Do they make money? Hobbies in general are entertainment that cost money. Do not approach trading as a hobby. Treat it like a business. Develop a business plan, have goals, and understand what you want out of trading.

4. Thinking that you know it all – The moment one thinks he knows it all is the moment he has become a fool. Its impossible to know everything about the markets. This is a lifetime learning process. Find your niche…. find your speciality and be an expert in it. In other words, find your edge. One thing I learned in trading is that niche = money.

5. Trading without a plan – One of the worst things you can do as a trader is to trade without a plan. Trading without a plan is like driving in a new area without a map or a navigation system. You are lost. (more…)