Archives of “January 7, 2019” day

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UBS latest to cut India's FY12 growth forecast to 7.7 pct

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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(Reuters) – UBS on Wednesday joined the growing list of brokerages lowering India’s 2011/12 economic growth forecast, paring Asia’s third-largest economy’s growth to 7.7 percent from 8 percent, as interest rate rises and higher oil prices start to bite.

Morgan Stanley and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch had last week lowered their growth forecast for the Indian economy in the next fiscal year that begins in April to 7.7 percent and 8.2 percent.

UBS also cut the world’s second-fastest growing major economy’s gross domestic product forecast for the current fiscal year to 8.7 percent from 9 percent on weak December-quarter growth and continuing weakness in the industrial output growth.

“The reason for the slowdown is as before: lagged impact of todays tight money on demand plus effect of higher oil prices,” Philip Wyatt, an economist at UBS wrote in a note, adding he sees the economy recovering to 8.6 percent growth in 2012/13.

India’s economy grew at a slower-than-expected 8.2 percent in the December quarter from a year earlier, after expanding at 8.9 percent in the previous two quarters.

Industrial output in January topped forecasts, but was still weak at 3.7 percent annual rise.

“We expect WPI (wholesale price index) inflation to accelerate from 7 percent in March 2011 to 7.7 percent a year hence,” Wyatt wrote.

India’s headline inflation unexpectedly quickened in February on rising fuel and manufacturing prices, raising expectations for aggressive central bank tightening beginning later this week. (more…)

French Doctor Accused Of Assisting Hedge Fund Manager Insider Trade

  
  Education
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The Securities and Exchange Commission accused a French medical doctor with illegally tipping off a hedge-fund manager about the results of a clinical trial conducted by Human Genome Sciences Inc., prompting the manager to dump roughly six million shares of the drug maker. The SEC alleged in the civil complaint Tuesday that Dr. Yves M. Benhamou gave the hedge-fund manager nonpublic information about negative developments in the trial of the drug Albuferon, used to treat Hepatitis C, including that one trial participant had died…Over a period of weeks prior to the announcement, the hedge-fund manager ordered the sale of all Human Genome Sciences stock held by six hedge funds he co-managed, a stake of roughly six million shares, the SEC said. [WSJ]

Accept Your Emotions as Natural and Stop Blaming Yourself

  
Analysis, Education
  • Example common cycle is that you take a trade before its ready because you fear of missing out, then you feel frustrated when the market dances around, you exit the trade, then you feel guilty of making the same mistakes over and over again.
  • What you should have done is to look at the anger and say “I see why I am irritated. I got in too early and I added or exited. Of course I feel this way”. Accept your emotions, then move on to decide on the best thing to do next.
  • But-I-Know-Better (BIKB) trades set up feeling and emotional contexts of self-recriminations. Just catching yourself in those — and the feelings surrounding them — will impact your bottom line in a positive way.
  • Get used to admitting to yourself (and if possible to someone you can trust) what you are feeling. Instead of trying to overcome or intellectualize a feeling (saying to yourself, “stop doing that”), say I feel like x, y, or z. Just let it be and don’t judge it.
  • Most of the time, if you have the courage to feel badly, get to the root of the feeling, and realize that x-y-z feeling or fractal-emotional context crept up on you without you knowing it, the feeling ‘pops’ like a balloon. Even if it doesn’t pop, it begins losing air like a tire going flat. The overwhelming sense of urgency begins to dissipate. The debilitating part just won’t last that long if you just let yourself feel and articulate it, even if only to a journal.

Ten Ingredients to become A Great Trader

  
  Education
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It is all a game of risk management, mind, and a robust system. Everything else is just noise. 

  1. Passion for trading, only passion can fuel the work ethic needed to do the hard work that leads to success.
  2. Goal oriented traders succeed, if you know why you are trading and where it leads you may just get there.
  3. Perseverance: It is hard to lose if you never quit.
  4. Resiliency: The ability to come back from losses may be the secret to trading success.
  5. Back testing systems and methods before trading them speeds up the learning curve and side steps a lot of learning through real losses. (more…)
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