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Market is like an Ocean

oceanThe market is like an ocean – it moves up and down regardless of what you want. You may feel joy when you buy a stock and it explodes in a rally. You may feel drenched with fear when you go short but the market rises and your equity melts with every uptick. These feelings have nothing to do with the market – they exist only inside you.

The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behavior.

The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you either. You may feel joy on a sunny day, when a gentle wind pushes your sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on a stormy day when the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean exist only in your mind. They threaten your survival when you let your feelings rather than intellect control your behavior.

A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gains experience. He knows when to sail and when to stay in the harbor. A successful sailor uses his intelligence.

An ocean can be useful – you can fish in it and use its surface to get to other islands. An ocean can be dangerous – you can drown in it. The more rational your approach, the more likely you are to get what you want. When you act out your emotions, you cannot focus on the reality of the ocean.

A trader has to study trends and reversals in the market the way a sailor studies the ocean. He must trade on a small scale while learning to handle himself in the market. You can never control the market but you can learn to control yourself.

A beginner who has a string of profitable trades often feels he can walk on water. He starts taking wild risks and blows up his account. On the other hand, an amateur who takes several losses in a row often feels so demoralized that he cannot place an order even when his system gives him a strong signal to buy or sell. If trading makes you feel elated or frightened, you cannot fully use your intellect. When joy sweeps you off your feet, you will make irrational trades and lose. When fear grips you, you’ll miss profitable trades.

A professional trader uses his head and stays calm. Only amateurs become excited or depressed because of their trades. Emotional reactions are a luxury that you cannot afford in the markets.

8 Trading Psychology Quotes

Your biggest enemy, when trading, is within yourself. Success will only come when you learn to control your emotions. Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (1923) offers advice that still applies today.

  1. CautionExcitement (and fear of missing an opportunity) often persuade us to enter the market before it is safe to do so. After a down-trend a number of rallies may fail before one eventually carries through. Likewise, the emotional high of a profitable trade may blind us to signs that the trend is reversing.
  2. PatienceWait for the right market conditions before trading. There are times when it is wise to stay out of the market and observe from the sidelines.
  3. ConvictionHave the courage of your convictions: Take steps to protect your profits when you see that a trend is weakening, but sit tight and don’t let fear of losing part of your profit cloud your judgment. There is a good chance that the trend will resume its upward climb. (more…)

Quotes from "Trading for a Living" by Alexander Elder and my love for trading

“The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behavior.”
“The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you either. You may feel joy on a sunny day, when a gentle wind pushes your sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on a stormy day when the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean exist only in your mind.” 


“A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gains experience. He knows when to sail and when to stay in the harbor.”
“When joy sweeps you off your feet, you will make irrational trades and lose. When fear grips you, you’ll miss profitable trades. A professional trader uses his head and stays calm. Only amateurs become excited or depressed because of their trades.”
I still need to control my emotions, thus I am still an amateur trader. No matter how much I try to pretend to myself to not get excited or fearful, its impossible. You just cant lie to yourself… This is the one other skill I need to work on psychology wise. 
On a side note I would like to share with you what attracts me about trading (more…)

Control Your Emotions

1. Caution.

Excitement (and fear of missing an opportunity) often persuade us to enter the market before it is safe to do so. After a down-trend a number of rallies may fail before one eventually carries through. Likewise, the emotional high of a profitable trade may blind us to signs that the trend is reversing.

2. Patience.

Wait for the right market conditions before trading. There are times when it is wise to stay out of the market and observe from the sidelines.

3. Conviction.

Have the courage of your convictions: Take steps to protect your profits when you see that a trend is weakening, but sit tight and don’t let fear of losing part of your profit cloud your judgment. There is a good chance that the trend will resume its upward climb.

4. Detachment.

Concentrate on the technical aspects rather than on the money. If your trades are technically correct, the profits will follow.

Stay emotionally detached from the market. Avoid getting caught up in the short-term excitement. Screen-watching is a tell-tale sign: if you continually check prices or stare at charts for hours it is a sign that you are unsure of your strategy and are likely to suffer losses.

5. Focus

Focus on the longer time frames and do not try to catch every short-term fluctuation. The most profitable trades are in catching the large trends. (more…)

Fear & Greed

When trading there are two emotions that are more common, and more dangerous, than all the rest; fear and greed.

Fear and greed can ruin even the best trading strategies

One moment of fear or greed can lead to a moment of madness and months of hard won profits going down the drain

Uncontrolled emotions should not be an excuse for losses and losses should not be an excuse for uncontrolled emotions

Remember!! Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading

Greed

“You can’t feed on greed” (more…)

The emotions of trading

When trading there are two emotions that are more common, and more dangerous, than all the rest; fear and greed.

Fear and greed can ruin even the best trading strategies

One moment of fear or greed can lead to a moment of madness and months of hard won profits going down the drain

Uncontrolled emotions should not be an excuse for losses and losses should not be an excuse for uncontrolled emotions

Remember!! Trading affects psychology as much as psychology affects trading
 


Greed

“You can’t feed on greed”

  • Many people think that greed is thinking that the sole aim of trading is to make money.
  • This is NOT what greed is

Greed is trying to make money too quickly
There are lots of ways to be greedy in trading;

  • Trading in sizes that are too large
  • Trading too frequently
  • Having unrealistic expectations
  • Dreaming of the big hit trade, rather than steadily building your equity


Fear

Fear in trading has two faces;

  • Fear of loss
  • Fear of missing out

The fear of loss compels traders to close profitable trades prematurely, meaning they miss out on potential profit
The fear of missing out compels traders to abandon their trading strategy so they do not miss a major price move
Fear is NOT good as it leads to overtrading and miss-timed entry and exit points
So
DON’T BE SCARED!!

Trading Opportunities Through Analyzing Baseball

If you got Pennington to find any valuable info when you asked him to develop quantitative analogies between forest life cycles and those of corporations to find some profitable trades you could certainly do the same in finding some numerical formula that could identify trade opportunities by analyzing baseball.

Each team– a stock, the aggregate teams– the market, each player– a corporate division, each salary– an investment made in the division and the company, each relevant performance statistic– a relevant performance statistic. Identify the right decision mix that makes teams perform better over time and improve over time and analyze similarities in companies doing the same.

The greatest liability is  also the greatest asset– human decision and performance permeate the game of baseball from start to finish and one could question whether it’s possible to find a truly consistent system as a result. I would argue that this complexity makes it a perfect analogy to market/company performance. It moves based on imbedded and sometimes unexplainable intellect and experience of its participants. The chaotic human decision making process is pervasive in both.

Wisdom Quotes adapted to Trading

2010-12-18

 

Here are some famous quotes adapted to trading.

A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be.
Albert Einstein

A trader should look at a chart for what it is, and not for what he want it
to be.

A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.
Albert Einstein

A trader who has never lost, is not a trader yet.

All men by nature desire knowledge.
Aristotle

All traders by nature desire profitable trades.

Bring your desires down to your present means. Increase them only when your increased means permit.
Aristotle

Trade within your ability and risk tolerance. Increase size and frequency when ability and tolerance permits it.

Being ignorant is not so much a shame, as being unwilling to learn.
Benjamin Franklin

Losing because of a new situation is fine, losing again is the beginning of the end.

By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.
Benjamin Franklin

The easiest thing to do is prepare. If you don’t, on behalf of the other market participants, we thank you.

Creditors have better memories than debtors.
Benjamin Franklin

You will always remember the trades that could have been and forget about the risks that were involved.

Applause is a receipt, not a bill.
Dale Carnegie

Your trading statement is the receipt, not your spreadsheet.

First ask yourself: What is the worst that can happen? Then prepare to accept it. Then proceed to improve on the worst.
Dale Carnegie

The more you mentally prepare and except loss the less chance it occurs.

A pair of powerful spectacles has sometimes sufficed to cure a person in love.
Friedrich Nietzsche

A trade is a not the girl you want to take home to mother, act accordingly.

After coming into contact with a religious man I always feel I must wash my hands.
Friedrich Nietzsche

After talking to a guru or anyone with the holy grail, I always take a hot shower, burn the clothes I was wearing, and drink them out of my mind.

Ah, women. They make the highs higher and the lows more frequent.
Friedrich Nietzsche

Focusing on the result (making money), makes winning more fun but less frequent.

Always do whatever’s next.
George Carlin

Move on, understand what happened in the past but do not have an emotional attachment to it.

Fighting for peace is like screwing for virginity.
George Carlin

Fighting yourself is like robbing your own bank.

A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week.
George S. Patton

A trading plan is just words until you act on it.

Always do everything you ask of those you command.
George S. Patton

Educators talk in best practices, if you teach it, do it.

I don’t measure a man’s success by how high he climbs but how high he bounces when he hits bottom.
George S. Patton

The easiest thing to handle is winning, but trading doesn’t start until you lose.

If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.
George S. Patton

If every trader is the long there is no money in being long unless you were first.

Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence.
George Washington

Don’t marry a trade but if you must make sure you have a prenup.

Experience teaches us that it is much easier to prevent an enemy from posting themselves than it is to dislodge them after they have got possession.
George Washington

Your habits are easily formed but be aware they are hard to pay for.

A man is rich in proportion to the number of things he can afford to let alone.
Henry David Thoreau

Just because the market is open does not mean you have to trade. Cash is a position too.

All men are children, and of one family. The same tale sends them all to bed, and wakes them in the morning.
Henry David Thoreau

Your worth as a trader is today’s trading statement, it is re-calculated daily.

All this worldly wisdom was once the unamiable heresy of some wise man.
Henry David Thoreau

The trading genius was previously an idiot or is closer to being one tomorrow.

A bore is a person who opens his mouth and puts his feats in it.
Henry Ford

All trading results are insignificant unless it is your last.

Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success.
Henry Ford

Having trading discipline is the beginning; keeping discipline is the progress; staying discipline is the success.

Be candid with everyone.
Jack Welch

Be honest with yourself, if or when you fail the change of direction will not kill you.

Change before you have to.
Jack Welch

The market will force you to change if you don’t and it is painful and disheartening.

Control your own destiny or someone else will.
Jack Welch

Put yourself in the best position or you will not have a position come tomorrow.

Face reality as it is, not as it was or as you wish it to be.
Jack Welch

Bend your view to the charts, not the charts to your view.

Even Castles made of sand, fall into the sea, eventually.
Jimi Hendrix

If the base of your trading was built on weak grounds, it is not a matter of if you fail but when you fail.

I try to use my music to move these people to act.
Jimi Hendrix

I place my entries and exits where I am assured people will have to act.

I used to live in a room full of mirrors; all I could see was me.
Jimi Hendrix

You are not the market, but some days you are a part of it.

Abuse of words has been the great instrument of sophistry and chicanery, of party, faction, and division of society.
John Adams

Trading can be simple if you let it. The stakeholders want to convince you otherwise, making their accomplishment and pocketbooks larger.

In politics the middle way is none at all.
John Adams

Indecision will lead to failure even if it does not result in losing money.

Efforts and courage are not enough without purpose and direction.
John F. Kennedy

Any trader can take risk a smart trader can use it to their advantage.

Forgive your enemies, but never forget their names.
John F. Kennedy

Move past your losing trades don’t erase them.

I don’t think the intelligence reports are all that hot. Some days I get more out of the New York Times.
John F. Kennedy

Understand from whom and why you are getting “hot” tips.

Adversity is the state in which man mostly easily becomes acquainted with himself, being especially free of admirers then.
John Wooden

Losing is lonely, but it can be the easiest way to get to know yourself.

Don’t measure yourself by what you have accomplished, but by what you should have accomplished with your ability.
John Wooden

If you make money by making a mistake, it is loan with a very high interest rate.

Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be.
John Wooden

Losing only matters if you lost because of a lesson you were already taught.

If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it over?
John Wooden

Develop a plan before you trade or do it later with less cash and more frustration.

History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce.
Karl Marx

A result is rarely an aberration, never treat it as one.

Be content to seem what you really are.
Marcus Aurelius

Find yourself and trade that way.

Because a thing seems difficult for you, do not think it impossible for anyone to accomplish.
Marcus Aurelius

Because trading seems difficult today, it was not for someone else. Stick with it the roles may reverse tomorrow.

Confine yourself to the present.
Marcus Aurelius

A trade is not connected to another, unless you let.

A man is never more truthful than when he acknowledges himself a liar.
Mark Twain

Not accepting a failure is to not learn from it.

A man’s character may be learned from the adjectives which he habitually uses in conversation.
Mark Twain

If you lose you are not necessarily a loser, if you call yourself a loser no one will be able to change your mind.

Against the assault of laughter nothing can stand.
Mark Twain

Don’t risk more than you cannot look at positively later.

A lie cannot live.
Martin Luther King, Jr.

Eventually you will run out of money if you run from your losses.

Everything that we see is a shadow cast by that which we do not see.
Martin Luther King, Jr.

You may not understand it fully right now but the market is always right.

He who hesitates is poor.
Mel Brooks

If you are thinking about getting out, your competition is already flat.

Always turn a negative situation into a positive situation.
Michael Jordan

A loss is only a loss if you lose the lesson.

I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life and that is why I succeed.
Michael Jordan

The view of trading changes after a loss it is your job to get it back to where it was.

The game is my wife. It demands loyalty and responsibility, and it gives me back fulfillment and peace.
Michael Jordan

If you do not respect the market it will not respect you.

I have found the paradox, that if you love until it hurts, there can be no more hurt, only more love.
Mother Teresa

If you understand and accept risk, you will never risk too much again.

If you can’t feed a hundred people, then feed just one.
Mother Teresa

It does not matter how successful you were today, it just matters that you were successful.

I realize that some of my anecdotes may appear conflicting but they are not to me. It is not up to me to convince you of their truths. It is your job to figure out how they apply to you.

3 Mistakes

1) Becoming Overly Focused on P/L During Trading – Watching your profits or losses tick up and down during a trade; becoming anxious about P/L and letting P/L, not a trading plan, dictate when you get out of a trade. It’s a recipe for performance anxiety. By focusing on process goals rather than P/L, you can stay grounded in good trading practices and minimize performance stresses.
2) Trading Much Larger After a Series of Winning Trades – It is common that traders become overconfident after a series of wins and decide to increase their risk by a factor of two or more. This often leads to large losing trades that wipe out much of the profit, generating frustation and discouragement. Just as it doesn’t make sense to plow into a trade after a large move has already occurred, it doesn’t make sense to plow into risk after a series of profitable trades.
3) Failing to Learn From Losing Trades – Traders often want to put losses behind them and not dwell on negatives. The downside is that they don’t learn from their losses and thus miss opportunities to understand what’s happening in markets and what they might be doing wrong. This is especially important following a series of losing trades: either you’re not seeing the markets well, or you’re not acting well on your perceptions. Both scenarios offer learning opportunities that can help generate profits down the line.
It’s common to think of trading as a stressful occupation, but much of the stress is self-generated. By staying focused on “best practices” in trading, we minimize fear and frustration and build confidence in our development.

The Right Side

A quote from one the best traders of our time, Jesse Livermore: “It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes. They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side. It took me longer to get that general principle fixed firmly in my mind than it did most of the more technical phases of the game of stock speculation.”

Being a bull or a bear alone is meaningless out of the crucial context of the current market conditions. All that really matters for the great game of speculation is being on the “right side”, knowing when the markets are in a bull or a bear trend and deploying your speculative capital accordingly.

Once again Livermore ties speculation back into the speculator’s own internal emotions. He points out that it makes no sense to be bullish or bearish as a rule, but to carefully watch the market conditions in order to be on “the right side” at any given moment. Most speculators are burdened with an innate emotional bias to be bullish that is dangerous and must be eradicated if they wish to succeed in speculation. (more…)