Always Ask Yourself:
Am I emotional today?
While in a trade, talk to yourself out loud:
Am i getting greedy?
Am i desperate?
Am i over trading?
Is this position too big?
Am i cheer leading a position?
Am I following the game plan?
Am i in control of the trade parameters or is this trade controlling me?
Ask yourself out loud and the smart trader will give you the answers.
Market: “I’m not so sure that we’ll make new highs but if we make a new high above 1,150, I don’t think it will be that far above the 1,150 level, maybe 1,200, and that thereafter we have a bigger kind of correction on the downside. I think if we make a new high then I wouldn’t rule out a correction of at least around 20% and don’t forget many shares in America and globally have already corrected 20%, so for them to make a new high isn’t going to be all that easy in the first place. So what we could see is a new high in the S&P and the Dow Jones that is not confirmed by the new high list. In other words you will make a new high with fewer stocks making a new high than in January.”
Currencies: Euro: “Now the Euro is very oversold and the news has been horrible. Everything you’ve read has been a disaster for the Eurozone and I think the Euro now can rebound to around 1.40 before it goes lower. I think there’s nothing good about the US Dollar, but I don’t think there is much good about the Euro either…”
US Dollar: “When investors realize that the fiscal deficits aren’t going to come down, that they’ll stay very high. When they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois. And when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run, I think at that point the Dollar will be weak. But don’t forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro. Both currencies are sick and so both could go down and then ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies, notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will then probably also appreciate against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong”.
Asset Class Right Now: “Right now as of today I would probably go long the Euro and probably be long US Treasury Bonds but only as a trade for the next say 5-10 days and then we’ll have to see further. In general, I would say better be in stocks than in bonds because we’ll get more inflation in due course”.
Dear Traders ,Just see ..What I had forecasted/Written about S&P 500 on 19th ,28th Jan’10 and on 3rd Feb’10
Technically Yours
Just like no texting while driving, listening to Blue Channels while trading should be outlawed. Mute button on is OK thou.
You can’t think & trade at the same time… which means you need to have thought out everything ahead of time.
“We respond to our thoughts and feelings about reality; we don’t respond to reality.” – Charles Faulkner
If you’re gonna be rigid, be rigid in managing the risk… other than that, be flexible.
“Start each day from last night’s close, not your original cost.” – Stuart Walton
Confidence bestows good trading… overconfidence bestows 100% drawdowns …find a happy medium by using risk management
One of the best ways to stay aligned w/ the markets is to remove “I think”, “I disagree”, & “In my opinion (IMO)” from your thought process
“The most important organ in the body as far as the stock market is concerned is the guts, not the head.” – Peter Lynch
“The superior traders gravitate to a single approach-the specific approach is not important-and become extremely adept at it.” – Faulkner
“I have noticed that everyone who has ever told me that the markets are efficient is poor.” – Larry Hite
The topic of regardless of whether a security’s value change can be anticipated is a standout amongst the most immersing inquiries in fund and one that has incited an immense measure of research in the teaching. While this investigation does not endeavor to determine the issue, it is basically persuaded by the inquiry. For a security’s profits to be estimating in a factually important way the profits should essentially have a connection with or reliance upon, some variable(s) 0across time. These factors might be past acknowledging of the security’s own particular returns, or potential factors, for example, profit yields, the income value proportion, or trading volume. This reliance, be that as it may, abuses the states of the basic irregular walk model of stock value conduct. A security’s profits are free of each other, and the arrival appropriation parameters continue as before, through time, with or without molding data. It is intriguing that one of the immense personalities of mankind, Albert Einstein invested his energy in “nonlinear” ideas, for example, “time, space, reality, and unity.” I think that it’s all the more fascinating that the relationship of these “nonlinear” ideas is the thing that makes a market tick too. As a trader, “timing” your trade inside the “market” depends on “reality” in connection to the “unity” of different traders and your result is dictated by the “space” or development of your position. The examination of the nonlinear conduct of security costs can be generally isolated into two classifications: the trial of regardless of whether stock returns show nonlinearity, and models of nonlinear stock value conduct.
Nonlinearity Helps Assessing Each Component Differently
Nonlinearity is a typical issue while analyzing cause-impact relations. Such cases require complex demonstrating and theory to offer clarifications to nonlinear occasions. Nonlinearity without clarification can prompt irregular, unforced results, for example, confusion. Nonlinear relapse is a typical type of relapse investigation utilized as a part of the monetary business to display nonlinear information against autonomous factors trying to clarify their relationship. In spite of the fact that the model’s parameters are nonlinear in nature, nonlinear relapse can fit information utilizing strategies for progressive (more…)
This YouTube vid explores the 5 greatest sacrifices in chess history. If you have any idea how chess is played, then sit back and enjoy!
GDH-MainMessages
In a report released yesterday titled “Multipolarity: The New Global Economy“, that other “bailout” organization, the World Bank, says that due to the developing world’s pronounced greater growth curve through 2025 (expected to grow at 4.7% compared to 2.3% for the developed countries), the outcome will be that “The balance of global growth and investment will shift to developing or emerging economies.” More importantly, as the FT summarized, a “different international monetary system will gradually evolve, wiping out the US dollar’s position as the world’s main reserve currency.” As a result of these “inevitabilities” (which will be interested to see how they are attained considering according to a recent report, the world will need to double its debt to double it GDP, so where all this new debt will come from we don’t really know), there are three potential scenarios: i) A status quo centered on the US dollar, ii) A system with the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) as the main international currency, iii) A multicurrency system. And while this obviously covers every possible outcome so absolutely no value added there, the WB is focused on outcome iii and believes that the dollar will gradually shift away from its current position of reserve currency prominence. This is not surprising: after all it is none other than World Bank president Robert Zoellick who recently predicted a return to the gold standard and an end to USD hegemony. Our advice to Bob: stay away from penthouse suites at the Sofitel. (more…)
