AUD/USD months-ahead view – below 0.59

  • outlooks for their respective main commodities, posing downside risks over the medium term
  • Oil prices have plunged over the past year, partly due to excess supply, but also due to a dire economic outlook
  • metals tend for follow (or co-move with) oil
  • iron ore prices have help up … mainly due to supply bottlenecks .. Once those have been cleared, there’s potential for iron to more closely reflect the deterioration in demand. So too for coal
For the AUD
  • multi-month, we hold a negative bias … targeting as low as 0.59. 

Goldman Sachs analyst on downside risk for US equities

Goldman Sachs’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin spoke Tuesday with CNBC

  • “There’s a little bit of asymmetry in terms of the downside risk toward a level in the S&P 500 of around 2,000, which is down almost 25%, and upside of around 10% to a target at the end of the year of 3,000”
Unpicking/deciphering that – he thinks lower is more likely.
  • important investors not get too keen to buy
  • during the 2008 financial crisis the market took several months of violent moves up and down before ultimately putting in a lasting bottoming on March 9, 2009
  • “I would just remind you that in 2008 in the fourth quarter there were many different rallies…but the market did not bottom until March of 2009” 

IMF issues annual report on China

Risks tilted to the downside amid trade uncertainty

The IMF is out with its annual report on China. They say:

  • risks are tilted to the downside amid trade uncertainty
  • China should maintain flexible yuan  if tariffs rise
  • China could intervene to support one in adverse scenario
  • China GDP growth could slowed to 4% by 2030
  • escalating trade tensions could warrant China stimulus
  • China augmented government debt to top 100% of GDP in 2024
  • The yuan is not significantly overvalued or undervalued. In line with fundamentals
  • IMF has been pressing China for more exchange-rate flexibility, less intervention in currency markets
  • China should open up more sectors to foreign competition to put its economy in best position to deal with trade pressures

State of mind

“Many traders start out using a state of mind that focuses on “having.” Rather than focus on how to trade in concert with the markets, they are obsessed with profits, and what they can purchase with those profits.”

“The main goal is to make money, money that can be used to purchase objects of desire, such as a shiny red sports car, a spacious, luxurious home, or a large wardrobe of fine clothes. They believe that great financial success will be the solution to all their problems. Trading isn’t just a job; it’s their salvation. Although many traders are motivated by money, there’s a downside to focusing on what you can have as a result of your profits. When traders focus solely on accumulating wealth, on “having,” they tend to act greedy and may take risks in an effort to win. There is a blind and unrealistic focus on trading at a high level of performance. Unless they trade at a high level of performance, they can’t possibly “have” what they desire. But a novice trader can’t achieve a high level of performance, and so, there is a mismatch between skills and goals. (more…)

25 rules of Trading Discipline

  1. The market pays you to be disciplined.
  2. Be disciplined every day, in every trade, and the market will reward you. But don’t claim to be disciplined if you are not 100 percent of the time.
  3. Always lower your trade size when you’re trading poorly.
  4. Never turn a winner into a loser.
  5. Your biggest loser can�t exceed your biggest winner.
  6. Develop a methodology and stick with it. don�t change methodologies from day to day.
  7. Be yourself. Don�t try to be someone else.
  8. You always want to be able to come back and play the next day. Once you reach the daily downside limit, you must turn your PC off and call it a day. You can always come back tomorrow.
  9. Earn the right to trade bigger. Remember: if you are trading poorly with two lots you must lower your trade size down to a one lot.
  10. Get out of your losers. (more…)

Quotes from "Trading for a Living" by Alexander Elder and my love for trading

“The market does not know you exist. You can do nothing to influence it. You can only control your behavior.”
“The ocean does not care about your welfare, but it has no wish to hurt you either. You may feel joy on a sunny day, when a gentle wind pushes your sailboat where you want it to go. You may feel panic on a stormy day when the ocean pushes your boat toward the rocks. Your feelings about the ocean exist only in your mind.” 

“A sailor cannot control the ocean, but he can control himself. He studies currents and weather patterns. He learns safe sailing techniques and gains experience. He knows when to sail and when to stay in the harbor.”
“When joy sweeps you off your feet, you will make irrational trades and lose. When fear grips you, you’ll miss profitable trades. A professional trader uses his head and stays calm. Only amateurs become excited or depressed because of their trades.”
I still need to control my emotions, thus I am still an amateur trader. No matter how much I try to pretend to myself to not get excited or fearful, its impossible. You just cant lie to yourself… This is the one other skill I need to work on psychology wise. 
On a side note I would like to share with you what attracts me about trading (more…)

Jeremy Grantham's 10 Investment Lessons

1. Believe in history: “history repeats and repeats, and forget it at your peril. All bubbles break, all investment frenzies pass away.”

2. Neither a lender nor a borrower be: “Unleveraged portfolios cannot be stopped out, leveraged portfolios can. Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience.”
3. Don’t put all your treasure in one boat: “This is about as obvious as any investment advice could be … Several different investments, the more the merrier, will give your portfolio resilience, the ability to withstand shocks.”
4. Be patient and focus on the long term: Wait for the good cards. If you’ve waited and waited some more until finally a very cheap market appears, this will be your margin of safety.”
5. Recognize your advantages over the professionals: “The individual is far better-positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing, which is almost impossible for professionals.”
6. Try to contain natural optimism: “optimism comes with a downside, especially for investors: optimists don’t like to hear bad news.” (more…)

4 Stages ..

Stan Weinstein’s concept of stage analysis as outlined in his excellent book entitled Secrets For Profiting In Bull and Bear Markets.  I decided to read Mr Weinstein’s book and find out what these stages are.  Here is what I discovered:

STAGE 1:  This is the basing area where a stock is losing downside momentum.  Buyers and sellers are starting to move in equilibrium and although the stock is not taking off it is not selling off either.  The buyers are not asking for a discount of the price but are buying what the holders no longer want.  This stage could last weeks to months so there is no need to jump in just yet. 

STAGE 2:  The advancing stage begins when the stock in question starts to break higher from the basing area.  This stage usually has a retest to the break-out area before the real move starts.  There begins here a pattern of higher lows best described as two steps forward and one step back.  These pullbacks provide a good risk/reward opportunity for the astute trader.

STAGE 3:  The top area is stage 3 where the good trending stock finds its eventual end.  The upward advance loses momentum and consolidation sets in.  The mirror image of stage 1 starts to take shape once again.  There are sharp moves and high volume in this stage and it is best to refrain from trading here as the reward/risk ratio is stacked against you.

STAGE 4:  The declining phase is the fourth and final phase as the factor’s that maintained the stock’s previous momentum are no longer present and the sellers step in.  The trader is advised to never go long in this stage or hold on to any winning positions.  It is time to exit. If a downtend begins then you can start to look at shorting the stock for the same reasons you went long: trend and momentum.

The market is really very simple in its design and structure; it is the trader who makes it difficult.  Although not all markets and stocks are text book examples of the four stages, the disciplined trader would be wise to consider whether or not the stages may be playing out in a current position or one being considered.  There may just be a very good reason why both Shannon and Weinstein have best selling books on the same subject.

Trading Errors

 Ignoring the downside of a trade. Most traders, when entering a trade, look only at the money they think they will make by taking the trade. They rarely consider that the trade may go against them and that they could lose. The reality is that whenever someone buys a futures contract, someone else is selling that same futures contract. The buyer is convinced that the market will go up. The seller is convinced that the market has finished going up. If you look at your trades that way, you will become a more conservative and realistic trader.

Taking too much risk. With all the warnings about risk contained in the forms with which you open your account, and with all the required warnings in books, magazines, and many other forms of literature you receive as a trader, why is it so hard to believe that trading carries with it a tremendous amount of risk? It’s as though you know on an intellectual basis that trading futures is risky, but you don’t really take it to heart and live it until you find yourself caught up in the sheer terror of a major losing trade. Greed drives traders to accept too much risk. They get into too many trades. They put their stop too far away. They trade with too little capital. We’re not advising you to avoid trading futures. What we’re saying is that you should embark on a sound, disciplined trading plan based on knowledge of the futures markets in which you trade, coupled with good common sense.

Yes, We are Unique

I remember the quote from Bernard Baruch :

“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope.”

Traders & Readers are sending us mail and writing that we are Born Bears.

-101% its wrong thinking.We write/recommend and trade according to levels only.Not interested in Economy ,Inflation figure,Monsoon or Corporate Results and basically I dont trust any Corporate !!

No Tantra ,No Mantra & No Yantra.

No Astrology !!

Just power of chart and our Vision.

Today our market forecast has confirmed it, nth time.

Refer to this exclusivity in our web-site.

As per the forecast market was weak till 10-35, then recovered to +ve zone uptill 1-35 and as per the unique forecast, collapsed from 1-35 only to dwindle down heavily till end. 

After 5185, our next Nf Hurdle was 5215, it went upto 5202.  On downside after it broke our 2nd support at 5146, we alerted all our Subscribers to Sell

 everything and Short market for a possible break 5114 where after it would be a bloodbath.  You all know NF collapsed to 5058, 150 points loss from the top.

Weak Opening, V recovery from 10-35, and from 1-30 bear-attack… so don’t have any long position in market.

Expected Bank NF will crash upto 9650.But it tumbled upto 9540 level….(Our Subscribers knows…..many more things )

Now u all tell if anything else is left in this market. That’s why our recently concluded Subscription enrolment was such an astounding hit.

All our subscribers / readers are busy in counting

their earnings while all Bulls ,Blue Channel (Analysts ),Website Analysts are singing


Technically Yours

Anirudh Sethi/Baroda/India

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