Subbarao fears fiscal deficit to fuel next crisis


The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor, Duvvuri Subbarao, expressed fear that the next financial debacle could stem from a currency crisis or from the way the government handles its ‘stimulus exit’. Speaking at the first International Research Conference organised by RBI here on Saturday, Subbarao said,

“I worry that in resolving this financial crisis, perhaps we are sowing the seeds of the next crisis. Next crisis could be a currency or a fiscal crisis.” The central banker, however, denied that RBI would back out from its commitment to full convertibility of rupee but would impart flexibility to its pre-determined course in the light of the recent global economic developments.

Participating in a panel discussion, the RBI governor said the developed economies may fail to wind down their borrowings, leading to cyclical deficits morphing into ‘structural fiscal deficits’, affecting the system as a whole. In the wake of global credit crisis, following the US sub-prime crisis in 2008, many governments and central banks pumped in huge funds and resorted to low-interest-rate monetary policies, for boosting their sagging economies. These have resulted in bloating of fiscal deficits. (more…)

Roubini sounds alarm on bond market 'vigilantes'

The United States may fall victim to bond “vigilantes” targeting indebted nations from the United Kingdom to Japan in a potential second stage of the financial crisis, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.

“Bond market vigilantes have already woken up in Greece, in Spain, in Portugal, in Ireland, in Iceland, and soon enough they could wake up in the UK, in Japan, in the United States, if we keep on running very large fiscal deficits,” Roubini said at an event at the London School of Economics. “The chances are, they are going to wake up in the United States in the next three years and say, ‘this is unsustainable.'”

The euro has touched a four-year low against the dollar on concern nations with the largest budget deficits will struggle to meet the European Union’s austerity requirements. Roubini, speaking in a lecture hall packed with students who then queued to meet him at a book-signing, suggested that the public debt burden incurred after the banking panic of 2008 may now cause the financial crisis to metamorphose.

“There is now a massive re-leveraging of the public sector, with budget deficits on the order of 10 percent” of gross domestic product “in a number of countries,” Roubini said. “History would suggest that maybe this crisis is not really over. We just finished the first stage and there’s a risk of ending up in the second stage of this financial crisis.”

The US posted its largest April budget deficit on record as the excess of spending over revenue rose to $82.7 billion. The federal debt is currently projected to reach 90 percent of the economy by 2020.

Roubini, who predicted in 2006 that a financial crisis was imminent, said that the record US budget deficit may persist amid a stalemate in Congress between Republicans blocking tax increases and Democrats who oppose cuts in spending.

“In many advanced economies, the political will to do the right thing is constrained,” he said.

Roubini reiterated that the euro region faces the threat of a breakup after the Greek budget crisis. The European Union said on Tuesday it transferred the first instalment of emergency loans to Greece, one day before 8.5 billion euros ($10.4 billion) of bonds come due.

“Even today there is a risk of a breakup of the monetary union, the euro zone as well,” Roubini said.

“A double dip recession in the euro zone” is “something that’s not unlikely, given what’s happening.”

Marc Faber: Euro Oversold, If S&P Above 1150 Could See 20% Correction

Market: “I’m not so sure that we’ll make new highs but if we make a new high above 1,150, I don’t think it will be that far above the 1,150 level, maybe 1,200, and that thereafter we have a bigger kind of correction on the downside.  I think if we make a new high then I wouldn’t rule out a correction of at least around 20% and don’t forget many shares in America and globally have already corrected 20%, so for them to make a new high isn’t going to be all that easy in the first place. So what we could see is a new high in the S&P and the Dow Jones that is not confirmed by the new high list. In other words you will make a new high with fewer stocks making a new high than in January.”

Currencies:  Euro: “Now the Euro is very oversold and the news has been horrible. Everything you’ve read has been a disaster for the Eurozone and I think the Euro now can rebound to around 1.40 before it goes lower. I think there’s nothing good about the US Dollar, but I don’t think there is much good about the Euro either…”

US Dollar: “When investors realize that the fiscal deficits aren’t going to come down, that they’ll stay very high. When they also see that one state after another is essentially bust like California and Illinois. And when they see that monetization will become inevitable in the long run, I think at that point the Dollar will be weak. But don’t forget it may not necessarily have to be weak against the Euro.  Both currencies are sick and so both could go down and then ultimately you just have one or two sound currencies, notably precious metals and I think the Asian currencies will then probably also appreciate against the Euro and the US Dollar but notably precious metals will then be strong”.

Asset Class Right Now:  “Right now as of today I would probably go long the Euro and probably be long US Treasury Bonds but only as a trade for the next say 5-10 days and then we’ll have to see further.  In general, I would say better be in stocks than in bonds because we’ll get more inflation in due course”.

Dear Traders ,Just see ..What I had forecasted/Written about S&P 500 on 19th ,28th Jan’10 and on 3rd Feb’10

Technically Yours

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