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Learning from Tiger Woods

tigerwoods

I am sure most of the questions on the eve of the third round of the British Open revolve around Tiger Woods absence.  “What’s wrong with Tiger?” “Is he losing his mental edge?”  “Is he hurt?” “Has something gone wrong in his personal life?”  “Why so many mistakes?”
Here is my question: Why can we not celebrate the fact that Tiger Woods is human? He is human isn’t he?  I know he is as mortal as we all are. That is what we all have in common. Why do we insist on him winning every tournament he enters? He won the last tournament he entered.
I think someone who always wins dies a slow death.  You know, the Alexander the Great syndrome.  “He [Alexander] wept with sorrow,” Plutarch said, “Because there were no more worlds to conquer.” (more…)

Trade Your Plan

“When you see a position that is going against you and the market is dropping, and you are losing money on a trade, but your stop loss hasn’t been hit yet, how do you stay with the position? What is your secret? Do you pullback and look at the big picture or do you simple assume its all noise as long as it doesn’t hit that lower low? This is my biggest problem with tracking your trades and most of the time you are right in holding on.” … Because we thought our answer to his question may be beneficial to other traders as well, we wanted to share our reply to his e-mail, which was…

“The key point you stated is ‘but your stop loss hasn’t been hit yet.’ When we put on a trade, it’s like entering into a contract, so we try to stay the course and simply follow the plan. Over the years, we’ve found it’s best to stick with our original analysis because we usually plan a trade at night, or in the pre-market, without the stress of live trading. During the trading session, in the heat of the moment, there is so much pressure that we have to fight the voice in our heads telling us to sell the position when everything around is crumbling. It basically comes down to planning the trade and trading the plan…easier said than done, right? Sometimes, if you have a feeling things are going bad, and you’re an active trader, you can maybe sell 1/4 or 1/3 of the position to ease your mind. However, you must have the discipline to get back in once the coast is clear. Try to lay out a plan, write it on paper, and stick to it. The one thing every trader must accept, in order to be successful, is a loss. You must be fully prepared to lose what you’re risking. Once you accept losses as part of the trading game, the pressure to be right is not so intense. By the way, we at ASR are no different; we fight the same urges to sell that most traders do. It’s a constant battle, that’s for sure!”

Christine Lagarde: "China's Slowdown Was Predictable, Predicted"… Yes, By Everyone Except The IMF

In what may be the funniest bit of economic humor uttered today, funnier even than the deep pontifications at Jackson Hole (where moments ago Stanley Fischer admitted that “research is needed for a better inflation indicator” which means that just months after double seasonally adjusted GDP, here comes double seasonally adjusted inflation), in an interview with Swiss newspaper Le Temps (in which among other things the fake-bronzed IMF head finally folded and said a mere debt maturity extension for Greece should suffice, ending its calls for a major debt haircut), took some time to discuss China.

This is what she said. 

Turning to China, Lagarde said she expected the country’s economic growth rate to remain close to previous estimates even if some sort of slowdown was inevitable after its rapid expansion.
China devalued its yuan currency this month after exports tumbled in July, spooking global markets worried that a main driver of growth was running out of steam.
“We expect that China will have a growth rate of 6.8 percent. It may be a little less.” The IMF did not believe growth would fall to 4 or 4.5 percent, as some foresaw.

Actually, some – such as Evercore ISI – currently foresee China’s GDP to be negative, at about -1.1%. (more…)

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