Circa 450,000 tonnes of Australian coal has been unloaded in China

Coal shortages in China have resulted in a degree of capitulation.

China has been refusing to take Australian coal out of spite, not happy with Australia over various political matters. ANZ (overnight summary note) is noting however that the shortages of coal in China, which has resulted in electricity shortages and all of the associated costs to industry and keeping people warm, has prompted China to receive some coal. ANZ say a ‘handful’ of ships have been unloaded, circa 450k tonnes of coal.

Busy week next week highlighted by rate announcements and employment reports

RBA and RBNZ to announce rate decisions

It is busy week next week with rate announcements from the Reserve Bank of Australia and also the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. It is also employment week for both Canada and the US.  China is on holiday Monday to Thursday. Australia will be off on Monday.
Monday, October 4
  • OPEC+ meeting all day
  • Spain’s unemployment change, 3 AM ET/ 0700 GMT
Tuesday, October 5
  • Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision, 11:30 PM ET Monday/0330 GMT.  Rate expected to remain steady at 0.10%
  • US ISM services PMI for September.  Estimate 59.9 versus 61.7 last month.  10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • ECB’s Lagarde speaks, 11 AM ET/1500 GMT
  • FOMC Quarles speaks, 1:15 PM ET/1715 GMT
Wednesday, October 6
  • RBNZ rate decision, expected 0.25% hike to 0.5% from 0.25%.  9 PM ET/0100 GMT
  • ADP nonfarm employment change, estimate 455K versus 374K last month. 8:15 AM ET/1215 GMT
  • US crude oil inventories, 10:30 AM ET
Thursday, October 7
  • US unemployment claims. Estimate 350K versus 362K last week.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • Canada Ivey PMI. Estimate 60.3 versus 66.0 last month. 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • BOC Macklem schedule to speak.  12 PM ET/1600 GMT
Friday, October 8
  • RBA financial stability review, 8:30 PM ET/0030 GMT
  • Canada employment change.  Estimate 61.2K vs 90.2 last month.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • Canada unemployment rate.  Estimate 6.9% versus 7.1% last month
  • US nonfarm payroll. Estimate 490K versus 235K last month.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • US unemployment rate.  Estimate 5.1% versus 5.2% last month. 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • US average hourly earnings, estimate 0.4% versus 0.6% last month.  8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT

World Bank leaders found to be favouring China … “Doing Business”

An internal committee of the World Bank managed to launch an independent investigation into top brass …

The World Bank ethics committee commissioned a law firm to sniff out what was going on.
Their report found that World Bank leaders, including then-Chief Executive Kristalina Georgieva, applied “undue pressure” on staff to boost China’s ranking in the bank’s “Doing Business 2018” report:
  • Georgieva, and a key adviser, Simeon Djankov, had pressured staff to “make specific changes to China’s data points” and boost its ranking at a time when the bank was seeking China’s support for a big capital increase.
  • The report raises concerns about China’s influence at the World Bank, and the judgment of Georgieva – now managing director of the International Monetary Fund – and then-World Bank President Jim Yong Kim.
  • Georgieva said she disagreed “fundamentally with the findings and interpretations” of the report and had briefed the IMF’s executive board.

Kristalina Georgieva now heads the IMF.  Oh dear.

An internal committee of the World Bank managed to launch an independent investigation into top brass ... 

Vale (iron ore producers) say they expect supply to increase, demand lower

Iron ore is a huge Australian export to China. Vale with their outlook for iron ore

  • Going forward on the year, on the supply side, volumes shall increase compared to 2H20 
  • while iron ore demand might be impacted by production cuts due to environmental restrictions in China

China – US summit meeting coming up today, Thursday 18 March 2021

A high level US-China meeting is happening in Alaska today.


  •  China’s upper echelon diplomats will meet With Blinken and Sullivan


Unnamed sources with what is on the agenda on the Chinese side:


  • China is to propose a reversal of the Trump-era China policies
  •  China to propose lifting of US sanctions and restrictions on Chinese companies
  •  China will propose a Biden-Xi virtual meeting during the April climate summit



Wall Street Journal has more here (may be gated)

China November PMIs: Manufacturing 52.1 (expected 51.5) & Non-manufacturing 56.4 (expected 56.0)

These are the official China PMIs for the month, from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Manufacturing 52.1 big beat and at its highest since September 2017

  • expected 51.5, prior 51.4

Non-manufacturing 56.4 also for a beat, expanded for the ninth straight month, best since June 2012

  • expected 56.0, prior 56.2

Composite 55.7

  • prior 55.3
Via Citi:
  • overall production should carry on the momentum
  • export orders were most likely still robust ahead of Western holiday seasons, and domestic demand may continue to hold up
(Citi comments from a pre-releases note)

China will not approve current agreement to sell TikTok’s US operations – report

Global Times report

From the Global Times’ Hu Xijin:
Based on what I know, Beijing won’t approve current agreement between ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, and Oracle, Walmart, because the agreement would endanger China’s national security, interests and dignity.
Hu is a mouthpiece for China so this is a strong hint. It was just starting to look like the US would approve it.
Beijing has decided that the US can pull the plug. They might be angling to punish US companies in response.

Pres. Trump: He is thinking about decoupling from China

Pres. Trump on China

Pres. Trump speaking in a Labor Day news conference at the White House says
  • possibility of decoupling US economy from China
  • says it would not lead to monetary losses
  • WTO has become much better much nicer to US
  • Because of Biden, China shuttered 70,000 businesses
  • China faces decoupling or massive tariffs from US
  • US will prohibit federal contracts to companies that outsource to China
  • Dems don’t want to make a deal because they know it is good for the economy.
  • He would support prove into DeJoy/donations
  • We may have a vaccine before the election
  • We are doing equally as well on therapeutics
  • For me, the faster the better for a vaccine
  • The most important thing is saving lines

ICYMI – Pompeo announced new restrictions on the movement of Chinese diplomats in the US

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with the latest in the slowly escalating tit for tat deteriorating relations with China

  • “For years, the Chinese Communist Party has imposed significant barriers on American diplomats working inside the PRC [People’s Republic of China]”
Under the new restrictions
  • senior Chinese diplomats will need approval from the State Department to visit American university campuses and meet with local government officials
  • Approval will also be required for cultural events for more than 50 attendees happening outside the Chinese embassy or consular posts.
I expect more tit for tat ahead of the US election.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with the latest in the slowly escalating tit for tat deteriorating relations with China

China launched to mid missiles into the South China Sea on Wednesday morning: Source

A source close to the Chinese military

According to a source close to the Chinese military, China launched 2 missiles into the South China Sea on Wednesday morning. The launch was to send a warning to the United States.

According to the source, the missile launch was intended to deny other forces access to the disputed South China Sea region.  Yesterday an American spy plane reportedly neared the Chinese naval drills in the sea.
The US has added 24 Chinese companies to an entity list. That will also impose a visa restrictions as a result of South China Sea tensions.
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