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What Predictions Say About Us

An excerpt:

…predictions are a way of demonstrating knowledge. Of course, in most things, a successful demonstration involves being right. In golf, a good argument will suffice. Most compellingly, human beings are wired to predict. In ancient times predictions served as psychological counterweight to the extreme uncertainty of life. As we’ve gained more control over daily existence, predictions help encourage the illusion that we are in charge of our own destiny. The more that is unknown, the greater the urge to predict. As the recently departed futurist author Ray Bradbury once said, “Mysteries abound where most we seek for answers.”

If you can find yourself comfortable not trying to predict daily life (and trading) there is a nice reward for you.

FEAR

No, not the fear you’re thinking of, the other kind of fear, the fear of missing out.

Many people believe there are two emotions that traders feel, fear and greed, I disagree, it’s only fear.  The fear of loss and the fear of not having enough.  There’s a difference between being greedy and being fearful of not having enough, and it’s important.  Greed is defined by the excessive desire to possess wealth or goods.  Synonyms include lust and gluttony.  The fear of not having enough is very different, and I believe that is what drives market participants.

Trading is inherently a competitive exercise.  We look across the desk at the guy next to us and see that he made X amount of dollars today and we made less.  We look at the major averages as benchmarks, we listen to people taking profits on our StockTwits stream and feel both happy for them and wanting to punch them in the face for making a better trade on the same stock.  It’s only natural.  And when the market is moving well, not being involved while everyone else is, while your benchmark is climbing, traders can feel a considerable amount of fear.

I’ve felt this many times, the fear of not having enough.  And I’ve become pretty good at gauging both my own emotions regarding this and the pulse of the market as a whole.  Many times this emotion can be seen exhibited in the price action through a blow off top where price accelerates at the end of a big move and then reverses sharply.  Intermediate term swing and position trading is about staying with the trend and not getting shaken out, while managing your risk well. (more…)

Small Things Matter

Ask many experienced traders to describe their most profitable trade, and you’ll hear a fantastic story. It’s usually purely chance. I know it was that way for me on a number of occasions. For example, the trader may have been going long on a large position when suddenly a report came out that shocked the market. Prices shot up as the public heard the news, and the trader made a killing. These stories are thrilling. They inspire you to sharpen your trading skills and master the markets. Who doesn’t want to be at the right place at the right time? But if you want to be a profitable, consistent trader, you can’t sit around waiting for a fantastic trading opportunity to present itself. Most of the time, trading is about making trade after trade to the point that it seems boringly routine. Rather than seek out big, exciting trades, it’s important to remember that small trades matter a lot.

As thrilling as big trades seem to be, it’s the smaller trades that keep you in business. It’s not unusual for traders to feel they have reached a plateau when trading. They make trade after trade and little seems to happen. They don’t suddenly find the Holy Grail of trading and achieve the great wealth and status they’ve dreamed about. Whether they realize it or not, however, they are still making progress. Each new observation of the market, each trade they execute, no matter how small, adds to their wealth of knowledge. They intuitively learn what to do and what not to do. They may see a slight variation in chart pattern that creates an inefficiency in price and learn just how far the pattern can deviate from the norm and still forecast the most likely movement of prices. On another day, they may learn a new way to place a protective stop so that they protect their risk, yet don’t get stopped out prematurely. These small everyday, seemingly insignificant experiences matter a lot.

Trading is challenging. Few survive trading over many years. The traders who do survive, however, know how to stay focused and patient. They don’t go for quick thrills, and unrealistically huge profit objectives. They know that losing is easy and can happen in the blink of an eye, but rebuilding capital usually takes a lot of work over a long period of time.

Instead of going for risky, exciting trades, you must seek out high probability setups, take steps to protect your capital, and execute your trades decisively, according to your trading plan. You may not have an exciting tale to brag about, but you take home steady profits–you get paid to trade. And when you make trade after trade, the small profits add up, and you end up with big profits in the end.

So when you feel that your earnings have reached a plateau, don’t get discouraged. As long as you are making profits, and staying in business, you’re continuing to develop your trading skills. You’re adding to your knowledge base. You’re developing a more intuitive feel for how the markets operate. It may not seem like you’re making the profits of a trading wizard, but if you keep at it, you’ll be one of the rare few that join the ranks of winning traders.
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Trade what you see, not what you think!

Cataclysmic Errors

Do or die: “Drawing is not a dirty word and neither is defeat. Play to win, but take a draw, or even a defeat, and wait for another day. That’s the name of the game.”

A Doubting Thomas: “If you want to be certain of your position, you must begin by doubting it.”

Confidence Game: “in order to win, you must have plenty of confidence, and that’s fine unless it becomes conceit.”

Your Manuscript: “You will need a blank book: plus a pen or pencil. And something just as important: an eraser.”

Defeat: “In many losses, especially among masters, it is the one fatal move that breaks the camel’s back.”

Stroke of Luck: “With luck, students may win a game or two. But with knowledge and work, they may win many games, and even become masters. Stick to your last.”

Ambition: “You have to burn the midnight oil if you want to set the world on fire.”

Time to Buy Diamond plus listed stocks

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If you know anyone in the Diamond business, they’ll tell you that they are in a real “crisis”.
Prices have fallen down sharply.You can learn more about this industry via the site powered by the
.Rapaport report
I find real value in large stones today.Feel safer in that industry compare to Gold right now.
The real good news ? Rough diamonds are really hard to get now 🙂

What Best Technical Analyst Do ?

-Technicians believe that there is wisdom in price. That price has memory. That people who were inclined to buy at a certain price are somewhat likely to buy there again. Unless something’s changed, in which case their failure to re-buy (or buy more) at that formerly significant price level can be interpreted in an entirely new way – what was once an area of support on a chart becomes an area of resistance.

-Technicians believe that trends persist, in both directions, because market participants act on “news” at different speeds and act more boldly (or fearfully) the longer a particular movement in the markets goes on. This is why bull markets often end with a buying crescendo in the riskiest securities. Risk appetites grow as an uptrend persists, the desperation to participate gets stronger, it does not fade gently.

This is also why selling becomes more fierce when the market is at a 20% discount to its previous high than when it is at a 10% discount. “How could it be even more urgent to sell down 20% than it is down 10%?” someone would ask. Going by fundamentals, it isn’t. But investors only pay lip service to fundamentals. What they are more concerned with is owning less of the thing that looks stupid to own – and the lower it goes, the stupider it looks.

Unless you buy into the idea that rational behavior rules the investment markets. In which case, you’re reading the wrong writer 

-Technicians find truth in price, rather than attempting to parse the impossibly conflicted and intentionally obscured opinions of the commentariat. Technicians find meaning in the actual buying and selling activity happening today, not in the dusty old 10Q’s of 90 days ago or in the projected estimates being bandied about among the discounted cash-flow analysis crowd on the sell-side.

But above all, technicians respect the power of sentiment more than their fundamentalist counterparts. And sentiment, after all, is how valuations actually come to be – the P in the PE Ratio or the PEG Ratio or the P/B calculation. In the real equation, the only one that counts, the P is what pays, not the E, not the EG and certainly not the B. Buffett would tell you the B (book value) is what pays over time (the market going from a voting machine to a weighing machine). But Buffett can afford to ride it out, having permanent capital under management and an ocean of insurance premiums sloshing in over the transom every hour of the day. Most market players do not.

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