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Effectiveness Is the Measure of Truth

  
  Education
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In trading as in life, effectiveness has to be the measure of truth. If something doesn’t work, there is no point in continuing to do it. Misperceptions, false unconscious or conscious beliefs, and unhelpful behaviors can contaminate and desecrate your most sought after results.

Imagine the frustration of a trader who perceives that a market is changing direction when in fact it is persisting in its original thrust. Or consider, for further example, an investor who bought into the belief that buy and hold is a valid investment strategy. That investor had to have experienced devastating losses over the past year. Or ponder the trader who repeatedly fails to utilize stop losses and experiences numerous outsize losses because he won’t accept a loss. (more…)

Stock Trading Rules

  
  Education
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istock Many of you have asked us  that you have  plan on or have written a book on the subject of trading. We haven’t yet, but plans are
 currently in the works for one. In organizing our notes recently, We have found a number of great trading rules that we have gathered
 along the way. Here are a few that we think are particularly helpful now:
 1. Be on the correct side of the supply and demand forces at work.
 2. Never upset the trading Gods by talking up your book. Hubris kills.
 3. Risk must be embraced, not feared.
 4. Reversals are always more lucrative than trends.
 5. Cycles tend to change before you can take advantage of them.
 6. Wishful thinking and emotional trading are a loser’s game.
 7. Never fall in love with a winning stock.

Improper Trading Psychology

  
  Education
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How do you know you have an improper trading psychology?  Here are a few things to look out for:-

1. Feeling too much stress
2. Successful ‘paper trading’, but not successful when trading the real markets
3. Getting mad or too joyous, depending on your trading outcomes or results (excessive highs & lows)
4. Feeling fear
5. Can’t ‘pull the trigger’
6. Fail to exit trading positions at stop loss points
7. Exit trades to relieve anxiety
8. Impulsive trading, etc.

When ‘paper trading’, you are apt not to feel the psychological impacts of real trading.  Thus, ‘paper trading’ will not generate most of the above psychological feelings.  However, when making the transition from ‘paper trading’ to real trading, the psychological issue may be felt and have to be dealt with just like when you learned the skills of your trading system. 

When you hear that trading is both an ‘art’ and a ‘science’, it often refers to the combination of psychology and feelings, with that of a technical trading approach.

In order to be successful, the psychology has to be mastered and managed.

In 1983, Steve Jobs Hosted Apple's Version Of 'The Dating Game' And Bill Gates Was A Contestant

  
Education, Video
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The year was 1983, and 28-year-old Steve Jobs was hosting an Apple event for his employees.

Jobs invited three software guys: Frank Gibbons of Software Publishing Co., Mitch Kapor of Lotus, and none other than Bill Gates of Microsoft.

All of the men are in their geek-chic uniform of khakis and polo shirts (the hoodies of yesteryear), to answer questions about their company’s relationship with Apple, all in the style of “The Dating Game”.

In the video below, you’ll hear only Gates’ answers, but those, of course, are the most interesting. The two seem almost chummy, and the crowd is completely entertained.

Jobs and Gates didn’t meet onstage again for almost 25 years after this event.

You’ll see that Bill Gates is really trying win that “date” in this game, but who does Jobs pick in the end? Watch and find out.

Wisdom Thoughts for Traders

  
  Education
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If your not sure and don’t have an edge, cash IS a strategy.

If you are on a cold streak, reduce size by 70% and tighten stops for a week.

Stocks aren’t people, they cant be trusted, an algorithm doesn’t care that you think you know the story or the chart.

Don’t be “all in” in any name, you will blow up your account.

It’s totally cool to change your mind right after a trade, the market changes by the minute, so should you.

Pick one strategy and stick to it. This may take time if you are a beginner.

You have to break a few eggs to make an omelet, so take losses but keep them very small.

I haven’t taken someone else s idea in a long time, you have just as good a chance of being right or wrong as some other putz.

Don’t have 15 technical indicators on your screen, that’s and EKG not a chart. Less is more.

Don’t trade pissed off, it will crush your P&L

Guess who wins when you “revenge” trade?

Take partial profits on the way up and raise your stops.

When you have three losing trades in a row, take a walk around the block. You may get an epiphany, at the very least it’s therapeutic.

Realize early that the market will always be smarter than you.

Friedman, Fortune Tellers (Book Review )

  
  Education
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I just finished reading Walter A. Friedman’s Fortune Tellers: The Story of America’s First Economic Forecasters (Princeton University Press, 2014), which I highly recommend. Readers will probably be familiar with some of the main characters, but in a depersonalized form—for instance, Babson action/reaction lines and Moody’s Investors Service. Other characters, such as Herbert Hoover and Irving Fisher, are rescued from the one-sided simplifications of history—failed president during the Great Depression, false prophet who claimed just prior to the 1929 crash that the stock market had reached “a permanently high plateau.”

Friedman accomplishes two main tasks in this book. First, he brings his characters to life, recounting their personal, intellectual, and entrepreneurial successes and travails, their pet social and political ideas (more…)

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