Archives of “January 9, 2019” day

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Observation

  
  Education
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observation

I don’t think the alternatives are trading to not lose vs. imprudent boldness. Rather, the alternative is to trade or not to trade. One should trade when there is a demonstrable edge in one’s favor: then it’s trading to win. If one lacks that edge and (rightly) fears losing, the rational choice is to refrain from trading. The pallbearers enter the picture when there’s a need to trade that exceeds the limits of one’s demonstrable edge. Such “boldness” also manifests itself in improper sizing of trades and poor trade management. It has nothing to do with trading to win–and everything to do with the need for stimulation. Trading to not lose is certainly more effort than it’s worth and also expensive. Unlike the “bold” trader, the fearful trader exits positions prematurely, fails to enter trades with good edges, and undersizes positions.Most trading problems boil down to deficient self-control and resulting impulsivity. The impulse for excitement and the impulse to avoid harm are flip sides of the same coin–and not infrequently alternate within the same trader. Both take the trader away from the prudent trading to win.

The 80% RULE

  
  Education

80percentruleIf you’re not 80% sure that you are right, don’t buy. 50% doesn’t cut it!.

“Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferable one that is also sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That, to me, is the epitome of professional trading.”

Is Money The Rationale Or The Motivation For Trading?

  
  Education
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Here’s an interesting thought experiment: Suppose you find a trading system that made money consistently in all market conditions. It was backtested objectively during independent time periods and handily beat your own trading performance. It also took less risk to obtain these results, with minimal drawdowns. The system’s price is quite reasonable. The catch? The system trades four times a year.Would you obtain the system? Would you trade it? Would you buy it and then try to tweak it in various ways? Would you be able to follow its rules faithfully, or would you convince yourself in the middle of trades to take sure gains or limit losses?Such a system would not meet the needs of many traders: needs for action, needs to figure out the market on your own, needs to feel like *you* were beating the market. Money is the rationale for trading, but it is not the only motivation. Traders also trade to make themselves feel good, to validate themselves, to avoid a 9-5 job, and so much more.
This is truly the source of most problems with “trading discipline”: what we need to do to make money conflicts with the other needs that we impose upon trading. 
If we bring a host of unmet emotional needs to the perfect trading method, we will inevitably sabotage that method. A rich and fulfilling life outside of trading might just be the best trading strategy of all.

Control Your Emotion or Other People Will Control You

  
  Education
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Many people are controlled by fear. Fear of losing an opportunity causes you to act in haste. Fear of losing your paper profit causes you to sell out too early. And fear of losing everything causes you to sell right at the bottom. Although selling right at the bottom is caused more by frustration than anything else, fear also plays a part. How do we overcome these kind of fears? Knowledge is the best weapon. When you know, people cannot scare, frighten or intimidate you. They can’t con you in anyway. Knowledge is your first key to success.
Hope causes you to hold on to a falling stock. Sometimes your hope is rewarded; your stock turns around and you make a profit. Unfortunately, hope often becomes hopeless. Experience tells me that it is much better to keep an uptrend stock and let go a falling one. This strategy is vital, simply because a trend in motion is likely to continue. Hope also causes people to buy into excessively high PE stocks. I prefer what is good today and better tomorrow.  (more…)

Trading On Fear & Panic

  
  Education
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Fear-Panic

First, no matter what, as a trader it is your #1 job never to put yourself in a “panic” position. No trade, no matter what you think of its future potential, outweighs that rule. If you trade for a living, your goal is always to “live to trade another day” which means tight risk management and taking every step to avoid this situation.

On every trade I make, I know where I have to exit no matter what before I make the trade. If I can’t figure that out, then I don’t make the trade. I learned, like you are right now, that trying to figure out an exit after you’re down significantly in a position never is to your advantage. Right now, you’re emotionally connected to that trade, if not trapped by it. (more…)

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