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Risk & Chance

  
  Education
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Here are some interesting quotes from ‘Risk & Chance’ (Dowie and Lefrere) that have a relevance to trading and speculation more generally:

Henslin (1967) notes …dice players behave as if they are controlling the outcome of the toss.  One of the ways they exert this is to toss the dice softly if they want a low number, or hard for a high number.  Another is to concentrate and exert effort when tossing.  These behaviours are quite rational if one believes that the game is a game of skill. 

As a trader I wish I could figure out what portion of my trading results can be attributed to luck, and what portion to skill. The problem is that trading seems to be a game of both skill and luck, so we spend half our time figuring out just how hard we should be throwing the dice. Splitting skill from luck is a problem for all speculators, but high frequency traders can find out much sooner than low frequency macro traders, who only take a few positions each year. In the latter case, it may be close to impossible to look back to a macro trader’s career and make this determination with any reasonable level of certainty.   (more…)

Trading Rules – For A Survival Of The Trader

  
  Education
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1. Plan your trade. Trade under the plan.

2. Write down your results.

3. Keep positive mood irrespective of your losses.

4. Do not bring the market from work to home.

5. Constantly raise level of your purposes.

6. Buy during bad news and sell during good.

7. Do not be afraid to buy at high position and to sell at low.

8. Always have well planned time for market studying.

9. Isolate yourself from opinions of others.

10. Always be quiet, persevering and consecutive; operate rationally.

11. Never enter into the market because you are bored to be out of the market. To be out of a position is also a position.

12. It is not necessary to enter and leave from the market too frequent.

13. Traders usually study not at profits, but at losses. Study every loss for improvement of the knowledge about the market.

14. Successful trading is combined and often accompanied by negative emotions. The most important element of successful trade is you are.

15. Always discipline yourself to follow certain rules in advance.

16. Do not allow big profits to turn in big losses

17. You should have the plan, you should know the plan – and you should follow it.

18. Perceive losses with advantage.

19. Halve your profit and never risk more than 50 % of profit operating against the market.

20. A key to successful trade – self-studying.

21. There is no so much distinction between getting in the market and losing there in natural abilities, that in ability to study the errors correctly. (more…)

Market Volatility

  
  Education
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Many, many times traders are quite conscientious and self-controlled in most areas of their lives, but experience lapses of discipline specific to trading. When this happens, it’s often the case that the trading itself–*how* they’re trading–is artificially creating the failure to follow trading rules. A key culprit in all this is market volatility. Volatility changes from day to day and week to week. It also varies as a function of time of day. Frequently, traders trade a fixed size and set fixed targets and stops, heedless of the underlying market volatility. In a low volatility environment, they fail to hit their targets and get stopped out, criticizing themselves for leaving money on the table. In an environment of enhanced volatility, the market will blow through their stops or exceed their targets, leaving them feeling that they did not trade well. This is especially true when traders find themselves unable to take what is normal heat in an environment of raised volatility. In such cases, it really isn’t a lapse of discipline causing the problem. Rather, the trader is not adapting to market conditions. Adhering to fixed rules in a variable environment is not necessarily a virtue. Changing markets can prevent us from enacting those fixed rules.

4 Kinds of Bets in Trading

  
  Education
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betsThere are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose.
Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future, when the odds will be running against you.
You can also lose a good bet no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.

10- Life Rules

  
  Education
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1. Karma exists. It may not be instant like in that John Lennon song, but it happens. May take a long time, might not be easily seen, may not be visible to anybody but you, the one who was scathed, but it’s real. 

2. Niceness triumphs. Although no one can be nice all the time. And sometimes you have to push back. But if you’ve got the option, be nice, people appreciate it. 

3. Be yourself. We’re all individuals. That’s what attracts others to us, our uniqueness. Don’t try to imitate someone else, focus on your strengths and heighten them. Everyone can’t do everything. Don’t try to fit your square peg in a round hole. But your trapezoid will appeal, if you just let it shine. 

4. You can’t please everybody. It’s a phony concept that flames out. Be thankful you’ve got your group, your friends, your family, your fans. There are those who would appreciate you whom you’ve never met, focus on meeting them, not those who don’t care. 

5. Education is everything. And it doesn’t have to happen in school. But at this late date we can understand why reading, writing and ‘rithmetic are so important. Yes, in the internet era, reading and writing are everything (typing too!) As for math… You can’t do a deal without knowing the numbers. And everybody wants to do a deal. 

6. Learning is lifelong. You keep gaining insight and then you die. Life is a puzzle, one in which you’re constantly delivered new pieces. And you can’t figure some stuff out until you get this new information. Which is why age equals wisdom and the young may have their youth, but the old have all the happiness. 

7. Possessions mean less as you age. You can’t take them with you. Furthermore, we’re evolving into a no possessions era. One in which you can rent a ride and you don’t even have to own a car. Experiences are everything.

 8. No one has the answers when it comes to love. There’s no perfect partner, if you’re looking for one you’re doomed. The key is to play. Relationships are the salad dressing of life, without them it tastes very bland.

 9. Do the right thing. Not only will it make a difference, you’ll feel better about yourself.

 10. Time starts accelerating sometime in your late thirties or forties. If you’re not paying attention, if you’re not steering, chances are you’re not gonna get where you want to go.

 11. Inspiration comes from displacement. Get out of your comfort zone, the rewards are legion.

Weekend -Trading Quotes

  
  Education
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Trading Journal

“Show me a trader with good records, and I’ll show you a good trader.”

– Dr. Alexander Elder


“The fruits of your trading or investment success will be in direct ratio to the honesty and sincerity of your own effort in keeping your own records, doing your own thinking, and reaching your own conclusions. You cannot wisely read a book on ‘ how to keep fit’ and leave the physical exercise to another. “

– Jesse Livermore


Risk Management

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.”

– Warren Buffet

 

Money Management

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

– George Soros


“If you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure… … I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I’ll be around to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential. “

– Monroe Trout


“Every winner needs to master three essential components of trading; a sound individual psychology, a logical trading system and good money management. These essentials are like three legs of a stool – remove one and the stool will fall, together with the person who sits on it. Losers try to build a stool with only one leg, or two at the most. They usually focus exclusively on trading systems. Your trades must be based on clearly defined rules. You have to analyze your feelings as you trade, to make sure that your decisions are intellectually sound. You have to structure your money management so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game.”

– Dr. Alexander Elder


“The most important advice is to never let a loser get out of hand. You want to be sure that you can be wrong twenty or thirty times in a row and still have money in your account. When I trade, I’ll risk perhaps 5 to 10 percent of the money in my account. If I lose on that trade, no matter how strongly I feel, on my next trade I’ll risk no more than about 4 percent of my account. If I lose again, I’ll drop the trading size down to about 2 percent. I’ll keep on reducing my trading size as long as I’m losing. I’ve gone from trading as many as three thousand contracts per trade to as few as ten. “

– Randy McKay


“All traders make mistakes, great traders, however, limit the damage.”

– Unknown


“My trading style blends both the risk-oriented and conservative personality of my personality. I take the risk-oriented part of my personality and put it where it belongs to : trading. And, I take the conservative part of my personality and put it where it belongs to money management. My money management techniques are extremely conservative. I never risk anything approaching the total amount of money in my account, let alone my total funds. “

– Randy McKay


“I’m more concerned about controlling the downside. Learn to take the losses. The most important thing about making money is not to let your losses get out of hand. “

– Marty Schwartz


“I’m always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don’t focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have.”

– Paul Tudor Jones (more…)

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