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The 15 Truths about Great Trading

 1) 45-55% (Average winning % of any given trader)

 2) Traders do not mind losing money, they mind losing money doing stupid things

 3) You can lose money on a Great trade  

4) Focus on the Trade, Not the Money  

5) Trading is a game of Probabilities, not Perfection  

6) Trade to make money, not to be right  

7) Nicht Spielen Zum Spass (if it doesn’t make sense, don’t do it)  

The market does not know how much you are up or down, so don’t trade that way (Think: “If I had no trade on right now, what would I do”)  

9) Learn to endure the pain of your gains  

10) There is no ideal trader personality type  

11) Fear and Fear drive the markets, not fear and greed  

12) Keep it simple: Up-Down-Sideways  

13) Make sure the size of your bet matches the level conviction you have in it (No Edge, No Trade; Small Edge, Small Trade; Big Edge, Big Trade)  

14) Making money is easy, keeping it is hard  

15) H + W + P = E

 a. (Hoping + Wishing + Praying = Exit the Trade!) 

15 Truths about Trading

1) 45-55% (Average winning % of any given trader)

 2) Traders do not mind losing money, they mind losing money doing stupid things

 3) You can lose money on a Great trade

 4) Focus on the Trade, Not the Money

 5) Trading is a game of Probabilities, not Perfection

 6) Trade to make money, not to be right

 7) Nicht Spielen Zum Spass (if it doesn’t make sense, don’t do it)

 The market does not know how much you are up or down, so don’t trade that way (Think: “If I had no trade on right now, what would I do”)

 9) Learn to endure the pain of your gains

 10) There is no ideal trader personality type

 11) Fear and Fear drive the markets, not fear and greed

 12) Keep it simple: Up-Down-Sideways

 13) Make sure the size of your bet matches the level conviction you have in it (No Edge, No Trade; Small Edge, Small Trade; Big Edge, Big Trade)

 14) Making money is easy, keeping it is hard

 15) H + W + P = E

a. (Hoping + Wishing + Praying = Exit the Trade!)

Gambling vs. Trading

“Gambling is taking a risk when the odds are against you.  Speculating is taking a risk when the odds are in your favor.”  Victor Sperandeo

“the only difference between gambling and trading is that your amount at risk and amount of potential reward varies with trading.”  I agree, but there’s more to it.  The parallels are obvious, from the lack of control over outcome to the illusion of knowledge to the physiological effects of having a stake in the outcome.  However, the differences are substantial…and mostly mathematical.

The expectancy in gambling is ALWAYS terrible, while market speculation at times offers outstanding opportunities.  To get a 2:1 or 3:1 opportunity in gambling, one needs to accept incredibly low odds of victory.  In financial markets, those 2:1 or above opportunities come around like clockwork and offer high enough probability that long-term positive expectancy is possible.  Not only that, but the market speculator has the opportunity to adjust his or her position after the game begins…when was the last horse race where you could take a little off the table after the first turn?  Or reclaim most of your bet when your horse stumbles out of the gate?

I’ll leave the neuroscience to the experts, but it seems to me that we need to coordinate our left brain(rational) and right brain(experiential) in laying out the role of each.  We want to allow our intuition to shine through, but within the overall structure of positive expectancy.  No matter how hard one tries, the math of gambling can’t come close to touching the opportunities for building a business out of the markets.

A Method to Measure Risk and Return

Placing a trade with a predetermined stop-loss point can be compared to placing a bet: the more money risked, the larger the bet. Conservative betting produces conservative performance, while bold betting leads to spectacular ruin. A bold trader placing large bets feels pressure or heat from the volatility of the portfolio. A hot portfolio keeps more at risk than does a cold one. Portfolio heat seems to be associated with personality preference; bold traders prefer and are able to take more heat, while more conservative traders generally avoid the circumstances that give rise to heat. In portfolio management, we call the distributed bet size the heat of the portfolio. A diversified portfolio risking 2% on each of five instrument & has a total heat of 10%, as does a portfolio risking 5% on each of two instruments. Our studies of heat show several factors, which are: Trading systems have an inherent optimal heat. Setting the heat level is far and away more important than fiddling with trade timing parameters. Many traders are unaware of both these factors. COIN FLIPPING One way to understand portfolio heat is to imagine a series of coin flips. Heads, you win two; tails, you lose one is a fair model of good trading. The heat question is: what fixed fraction of your running total stake should you bet on a series of flips?

A Trade or a Gamble?

I love to trade a lot – which is of course a euphemistic way of saying I love to gamble. Although I have been to Vegas more than a dozen times I never laid down so much as a dollar bet in any casino. I have absolutely no interest in backjack, craps, slot machines or any other games of chance and I look down with disdain at the excited masses crowding the cavernous Vegas gambling halls. But deep down, if I am honest with myself, I have to admit that whenever I trade a lot I am just as much of a sucker as every hopeless loser that gives up his hard earned money to Steve Wynn or Sheldon Adelson

If you are constantly trading just for the sake of trading, just for the rush of being “in the game”, just for the momentarily thrill of being right you are gambling. You are trading without an edge, without any solid information and are therefore completely vulnerable to the random vagaries of price. (more…)

Emotion and Trading

While trading I watch my emotional state of mind more than the price action. This has helped me trade better

Here are some of the emotions I feel from time to time and what they mean to me in context of trading

1) hesitation to pull the tigger – something is not right – don’t take the bet

2) anger – start of revenge trading – stop ASAP

3) uncomfortable while watching or not watching the price – non aligned with the market, trading with too much size – reduce size or quit

4) ignoring the little voice and gut feeling – trust the inner voice and take action

5) trading on hope – quit asap

6) thinking after hours or during market hours of money you can make = greed, impatience to make money – focus on how much you can lose

7) stress = wrong side of the market

8) feeling joy = right side of the market

Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego

What does it mean to be a hero in trading?

In poker, a “hero call” is sometimes appropriate. It refers to the call of a very large river bet with medium strength — or even Ace-high — based on a strong read that your opponent whiffed on a draw and is representing a huge hand to steal the pot.

In markets and trading, there is no official definition, but we can more or less surmise being a “hero” looks like the following:

Putting your foot down and saying “markets will do X, I’m sure of it!”

Pointing to the sky like Babe Ruth — “this is where my profits on this trade are going to go!” (more…)

Nicholas Darvas: Trend Trader

From a Time Magazine article in 1959:

Darvas places his buy orders for levels that he considers breakout points on the upside. At the same time, he places a stop-loss sell order just below his buy order, so that if the stock does not move straight up after he buys, he will be sold out and his loss cut. “I have no ego in the stock market,” he says. “If I make a mistake I admit it immediately and get out fast.” Darvas thinks his system is the height of conservatism. Says he: “If you could play roulette with the assurance that whenever you bet $100 you could get out for $98 if you lost your bet, wouldn’t you call that good odds?” If he has a big profit in a stock, he puts the stop-loss order just below the level at which a sliding stock should meet support. He bought Universal Controls at 18, sold it at 83 on the way down after it had hit 102. “I never bought a stock at the low or sold one at the high in my life,” says Darvas. “I am satisfied to be along for most of the ride.”