Archives of “January 3, 2019” day

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Links for you

  
Education, LINKS
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linksforu

  • Goodbye, yellow brick road! (Doug Kass)

  • Could we have less talk about gloom and about doom in 2010? (Money)

     Most people stink at market timing. Investors pull money out of stock funds (MarketWatch)

  • The Housing Crisis and Wall Street Shame (Robert Reich)

  • Are we coming out of recession? (Market Talk)

  • Get ready for half a recovery (New York Times)


  • One in six companies on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index may raise its next dividend payment (Bloomberg)

    • I’m always suspicious about the market [but that doesn’t mean I don’t find opportunities] (Jutia)

  • Dangers of an overheated China (New York Times)

  • Brazil GDP to Grow 6.1% in 2010 (Bloomberg)

  • 15 european banks now have assets larger than their domestic economies (Fund My Mutual Fund)

  • Correlation between the world’s tallest buildings and economic downturns (AlphaDinar)

  • Need a reminder? (Memorari)

  • RIP Mark Pittman (Bloomberg)

  • Life of a blogger (Slope Of Hope)

    • Trading Advice

      
      Education
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    1) Cut Risk – It’s that “above all else, do no harm” principle. If you don’t have a feel for the market, trade small while you regain your feel. Preserve as much of your capital as possible to lay the foundation for your recovery; 

    2) Focus on Your Strengths – It’s not unusual for frustrated traders to try to make all kinds of changes in their trading in a frantic effort to gain some traction. These efforts can compound difficulties by getting traders further and further from their strengths. During rebuilding periods, you want to focus on the markets and strategies that you know most about, that represent your strengths. 

    3) Reach Out – It’s especially helpful to reach out to traders who trade markets and strategies similar to yours. Are they also struggling? If so, this suggests that market changes, indeed, may be at the root of the problem. If the traders you contact are succeeding, try to find out what they’re doing differently from you. It may well be that a simple tweaking of execution, holding times, and risk management could turn your performance around.  (more…)

    The Dragon bubble

      
    Analysis, Education
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    something to remember as you hear this idiocy about China being the most powerful country on earth…

    chinadragonChina is still a poor country. Notwithstanding the complexities of measurement, income per head, according to the World Bank, is roughly $3,000, a little less than Jordan and Tunisia.

    In the extreme scenario in which US income per head remains the same forever more, and China’s income per head grows by a constant 8 per cent a year, convergence would happen in 2045. But this is silly maths.

    The US will not stand still and China’s economic path is likely to be punctured sooner or later by a credit or asset crisis.

    Further, it cannot grow by 8 per cent a year for that much longer, not least for demographic reasons. China is the fastest-ageing nation on Earth, with an age structure rather like that of Germany.

    Its labour force will begin to decline in 2010 or so and fall every year for the foreseeable future. For a while, the transfer of the 80 million rural migrant pool to higher-productivity urban jobs will mask much of this impact, but only for a few years. (more…)

    No Risk Management=Your losses

      
      Education
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    “There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future. You can also lose a good bet, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”
    –Larry Hite, Trader

    Continuing:

    “Life is nothing more than a series of bets and bets are really nothing more than questions and their answers. There is no real difference between, ’should I take another hit on this Blackjack hand?’ and ‘Should I get out of the way of that speeding and wildly careening bus?’ Each shares two universal truths: a set of probabilities of potential outcomes and the singular outcome that takes place. Everyday we place hundreds if not thousands of bets – large and small, some seemingly well considered and others made without a second thought. The vast majority of the latter, life’s little gambles made without any thought, might certainly be trivial. ‘Should I tie my shoes?’ Seems to offer no big risk, nor any big reward. While others, such as the aforementioned ’speeding and wildly careening bus’ would seem to have greater impact on our lives. However, if deciding not to tie your shoes that morning causes you to trip and fall down in the middle of the road when you finally decide to fold your hand and give that careening bus plenty of leeway, well then, in hindsight the trivial has suddenly become paramount.”
    –Larry Hite, Trader

    Continuing:

    “Ancient man had no risk management. Everything was left to ‘fate’ and the whims of the gods. Because ancient man felt that he was merely a victim of circumstance he did not see a need to plan for the future. Therefore, he had no future. In his book Against The Gods: The Remarkable Story Of Risk, Peter Bernstein plots out the history of man’s discovery of the law of probabilities and risk management. Suffice it to say, economic progress seems to run parallel with man’s ability to discover, quantify, and manage risk. Risk and reward are two sides of the same coin. One is not present without the other. You cannot receive the reward unless you are willing to take the risk and you cannot expect to keep that reward unless you learn to mange that risk. It is imperative to master both subjects if you expect to be successful in any endeavor, especially the arena of investing/trading.”
    –Source: Pearce Financial LLC

    The only thing you can control as you face the markets each day? Your losses.

    John Paulson's 8 Secrets

      
      Education
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    1. Don’t follow the crowd.
    2. Have an exit strategy before the bubbles burst
    3. Focus on the debt markets for predicting the future.
    4. Take the time to figure out how fancy new investment products like credit default swaps (CDS) work.
    5. Buy insurance. No one wanted out of the money puts on the housing market.
    6. Remember the past. Some of the big winners in the housing crash were those dismissed as out-of-touch dinosaurs.
    7. Remember that no trade lasts forever so don’t fall in love with your investment. After making his $20 billion. Paulson went long banks at the bottom. (The verdict is still out on this trade).
    8. Timing is everything and luck helps.
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