In today’s “less than surprising data point” category, the clear winner is Gallup’s analysis of people’s ever increasing distrust in the mass media. From 46% in 1998, the percentage of people who indicate they have “not very much/none at all” trust in mass media has grown to a stunning 57% currently. This is an all time record, as the general public perception toward the MSM has flipped over the past decade. Is it becoming increasingly more difficult to lie to the average American? In this time of unprecedented economic upheaval, where the political regime depends on just how far any given administration’s lies can penetrate amongst the broader population, this may well become the most critical factor in determining policy for the future. And with ever increasing alternatives of non-traditional media, could the legacy ad-supported media model, which by definition is one which espouses the status quo, be doomed precisely by the slow but steady education of the average American, who intuitively realizes that nearly every “fact” appearing in the media, especially that supported by any given political party, is a lie?
From Gallup’s study on media distrust:
For the fourth straight year, the majority of Americans say they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. The 57% who now say this is a record high by one percentage point.
The 43% of Americans who, in Gallup’s annual Governance poll, conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, express a great deal or fair amount of trust ties the record low, and is far worse than three prior Gallup readings on this measure from the 1970s. (more…)
Individual companies seldom make it to the cover of Economist. When they do, it might be a kiss of death. You can not go by cover alone , but something to keep an eye on. Jobs was also named CEO of the Decade by Fortune recently. As they say when CEO is on cover, it might be a top.
Here are Ed Easterling’s 12 Rules of Market Cycles:
1. Secular cycles are driven by the inflation rate (deflation, price stability, and higher inflation)
2. Secular bulls occur when P/E starts low and ends high over an extended period
3. Secular bears occur when P/E starts high and ends low over an extended period
4. Cyclical bulls and bears are interim periods of directional swings within secular periods
5. Cyclical cycles are driven by market psychology, illiquidity, or other generally temporary condition(s)
6. Time is irrelevant to the length of secular stock market cycles
7. Secular bulls require a doubling or tripling of P/E
8. Secular bears occur as P/E stalls and falls by one-third to two-thirds or more
9. When real economic growth is near 3%, there is a natural floor for P/E between 5 and 10, a natural ceiling around the mid-20s, and a typical average in the mid-teens
10. If economic growth shifts upward or downward for the foreseeable future, the natural range moves upward or downward, respectively
11. Inflation drives P/Es location within the range; economic growth drives the level of the range
12. The stock market is not consistently predictable over months, quarters, or periods of a few years; the stock market is, however, quite predictable over periods approaching a decade or longer based upon starting P/E
How did one of the greatest entrepreneurs of the last 50 years think? How did he create one of the most successful companies of all time? Here are ten of the best things that he ever said . I believe they give us clues at identifying the next company that could have their stock become the monster stock of this decade. As you read through these quotes does it make any other company come to mind besides Apple?
Steve Jobs Quotes:
“We’re gambling on our vision, and we would rather do that than make “me too” products. Let some other companies do that. For us, it’s always the next dream.” Interview about the release of the Macintosh (24 January 1984)
“Do you want to spend the rest of your life selling sugared water or do you want a chance to change the world? ” A comment he made in persuading John Sculley to become Apple’s CEO.
“You‘ve got to start with the customer experience and work back toward the technology – not the other way around.” May 1997, World Wide Developers Conference
“Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn’t matter to me … Going to bed at night saying we’ve done something wonderful… that’s what matters to me.”
“That’s been one of my mantras — focus and simplicity. Simple can be harder than complex: You have to work hard to get your thinking clean to make it simple. But it’s worth it in the end because once you get there, you can move mountains.” –BusinessWeek Interview May 1998
“It’s really hard to design products by focus groups. A lot of times, people don’t know what they want until you show it to them.” –BusinessWeek Interview May 1998
“Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.”
“Quality is more important than quantity. One home run is much better than two doubles.”
“You can’t just ask customers what they want and then try to give that to them. By the time you get it built, they’ll want something new.” Inc Magazine
“Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.”
What’s important about money to you?
This is an uncomfortable question because we aren’t used to thinking about money in those terms. But it’s one of my favorite questions to ask. Even before talking about goals or building a personal balance sheet, you might find it helpful to ask yourself this question.
While I’m not certain of the question’s origins, I first learned of it about a decade ago in a book by Bill Bachrach. It was about the importance of understanding your values when making important financial decisions. I’ve been using the question ever since. (more…)
something to remember as you hear this idiocy about China being the most powerful country on earth…
China is still a poor country. Notwithstanding the complexities of measurement, income per head, according to the World Bank, is roughly $3,000, a little less than Jordan and Tunisia.
In the extreme scenario in which US income per head remains the same forever more, and China’s income per head grows by a constant 8 per cent a year, convergence would happen in 2045. But this is silly maths.
The US will not stand still and China’s economic path is likely to be punctured sooner or later by a credit or asset crisis.
Further, it cannot grow by 8 per cent a year for that much longer, not least for demographic reasons. China is the fastest-ageing nation on Earth, with an age structure rather like that of Germany.
Its labour force will begin to decline in 2010 or so and fall every year for the foreseeable future. For a while, the transfer of the 80 million rural migrant pool to higher-productivity urban jobs will mask much of this impact, but only for a few years. (more…)