rss

Intuition

I have this interesting article I found. This is something we normally discuss in the 3-day live class. Read this real quick and as soon as your done, sit back and realize what just happened.

I cdnuolt blveiee that I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd what I was rdgnieg!

I have this interesting article I found. This is something we normally discuss in the 3-day live class. Read this real quick and as soon as your done, sit back and realize what just happened.

I cdnuolt blveiee that I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd what I was rdgnieg!

THE PHAOMNNEAL PWEOR OF THE HMUAN MNID

Aoccdrnig to a rseearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn’t mttaer in what oredr the ltteers in a word are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is Tahtthe frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can still raed it wouthit a porbelm. This is Bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but The word as a wlohe.

Amzanig huh?

Now I’m tinkihng aobut all the tmie I wtsead in sochol lrenanig how to slpel……

What were you just reading? Nothing. Those were not words, they were letters mixed together that spelled absolutely nothing. Somehow each of us were able to create something out of nothing!? (more…)

Jesse Livermore :Timeless lessons

All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope. That is why the numerical (technical) formations and patterns recur on a constant basis.

The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.

Don’t take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don’t be an impatient trader.

It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.

Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.

When a margin call reaches you, close your account. Never meet a margin call. You are on the wrong side of a market. Why send good money after bad? Keep that good money for another day.

Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance. Follow the trend. The trend is your friend.

A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrongopinions often are.

Few people succeed in the market because they have no patience. They have a strong desire to get rich quickly.

I absolutely believe that price movement patterns are being repeated. They are recurring patterns that appear over and over, with slight variations. This is because markets are driven by humansand human nature never changes.

When you make a trade, you should have a clear target where to sell if the market moves against you. And you must obey your rules! Never sustain a loss of more than 10% of your capital. Losses are twice as expensive to make up. I always established a stop before making a trade.

I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I’m concerned it is a full-time jobperhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success.

The big money is made by the sittin’ and the waitin’not the thinking. Wait until all the factors are in your favor before making the trade.

It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting…Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after this that a stock operator can make big money. it is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of ignorance.

Give up trying to catch the last eighth – or the first. These two are the most expensive eighths in the world.

Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game. That is about all I have learned – to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it.

Remember that stocks are never to high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.

That is where the tape comes in – to enable you to decide as to the proper time for beginning. Much depends upon beginning at exactly the right time.

If you begin right you will not see your profitable position seriously menaced; and then you will find no trouble in sitting tight.

The public, with their eyes fixed on the stock market, saw little – that week. The wise stock operators saw much – that year. That was the difference.

A speculator must not merely be a student, he must be both a student and a speculator.

Tape reading was an important part of the game; so was beginning at the right time; so was sticking to your position. But my greatest discovery was that a man must study general conditions, to size them up so as to be able to anticipate probabilities.

I knew that some day I would find out what was wrong and I would stop being wrong. I would then have not alone the will to be right but the knowledge to insure my being right. And that would mean power.

A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking a loss – that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.

The speculator is not an investor. His object is not to secure a steady return on his money at a good rate of interest, but to profit by either a rise or fall in the price of whatever he is speculating in. Therefore the thing to do is to determine the line of least resistance at the moment of trading; and what he should wait for is the right moment when the line defines itself, because that is his signal to get busy.

In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move in a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what next big movement is going to be – up or down.

Instead of hoping he must fear and instead of fearing he must hope.He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

A man may beat a stock or group at a certain time, but no man living can beat the stock market.

A man must know himself thoroughly if he is going to make a good job out of trading in the speculative markets.

I learned that the weaknesses to which a speculator is prone are almost numberless.

Among the hazards of speculation the happening of the unexpected – I might even say of the unexpectable – ranks high.

Observation, experience, memory and mathematics – these are what the successful trader must depend on.

There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.

Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but what the tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn’t go into explanations. The reason for what a certain stock does today may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your business with the tape is now – not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left.

There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men on Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. No man can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.

The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses on Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money every day, as though they were working for regualr wages. (more…)

Words of wisdom from Jesse Livermore

No trader can or should play the market all the time. There will be many times when you should be out of the market, sitting in cash waiting patiently for the perfect trade…. ” – Jesse Livermore

“It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss…. As an ironclad Livermore rule, never average losses. Let that thought be written indelibly and forever upon your mind….” – Jesse Livermore

“Remember that it is dangerous to start spreading out all over the market carrying several positions. Do not have an interest in too many stocks at any one time. It is much easier to watch a few than many….” – Jesse Livermore

“As long as a stock is acting right, and the market is right, be in no hurry to take a profit…. ” – Jesse Livermore (more…)

Technical Analysis

  • Reduce or dispose your position if a trend line you are watching is violated, especially with heavy volume. Don’t hope that the trend line break is a fake one.
  • Never trade based on indicator divergence (with price) alone. Divergences can go on for a while, with price continuing to make higher highs and the indicator continuing to make lower highs (or price making lower lows with indicator making higher lows).

Warren Buffett Teaches : Part -II

artimg62

Test……..one million……..two million…………three million…

This is how Buffett tested the microphone before his speech at the annual shareholders’ meeting of Berkshire Hathaway. He really enjoys the game of making money. Not to spend it, but to accumulate it. The early investors in BH turned $10,000 into $100 mill for 40 years. (more…)

Trading Wisdom – Tom Willis and Bob Jenkins

Years back Tom Willis (a friend of Richard Dennis’) and Bob Jenkins, running a hedge fund, offered answers about “price” during an interview. An excerpt:
Bob Jenkins: “Everything known is reflected in the price. It makes inherent sense. I could never hope to compete with Cargill that has soybean agents scouring the globe knowing everything there is to know about soybeans and funneling the information up to Lake Minnetonka, their trading headquarters. Unless I have a friend at Cargill, I can only get this information one way: I can infer it technically. We have friends who have made millions trading fundamentally, but their problems are (a) they can rarely know as much as the commercials [i.e. Cargill]; and (b) they are limited to trading their [one market] specialty. They don’t know anything about bonds; they don’t know anything about the currencies. I don’t either, but I’ve made a lot of money trading them. Every picture’s worth a thousand words.”
Tom Willis: “They’re just numbers. Corn is a little different than bonds, but not different enough that I’d have to trade them differently-not different enough that I would have to have a different system.”
Bob Jenkins: “Some of these guys I read about have a different system for each [market]. That’s absurd. We’re trading mob psychology. We’re trading numbers. We’re not trading corn, soybeans or S&Ps.”
I hope everyone catches the nuance of Bob Jenkins’ last statement? Some great succinct language about what “it” takes. Taken from an interview 20 years ago…

The Only Way to Day Trade

There are four cardinal principles which should be part of every trading strategy. They are: 1) Trade with the trend, 2) Cut losses short, 3) Let profits run, and 4) Manage risk. You should make sure your strategy includes each of these requirements for success.

Trade with the trend relates to the decision of how to initiate trades. It means you should always trade in the direction of recent price movement.

Mathematical analysis of commodity price data has shown that these price changes are primarily random with a small trend component. This scientific fact is extremely important to those desiring to pursue commodity trading in a rational, scientific manner. It means that any attempt to trade short-term patterns and methods not based on trend are doomed to failure. It also explains why day trading is darned difficult and why almost no day trader is a long-term success.

The shorter the time frame in which you examine price action, the smaller the trend component is. Commodity price action is fractal. That means that as you shorten or lengthen the time frame, price action remains similar in behavior. Thus, five-minute charts have roughly the same appearance as hourly charts, daily charts, weekly charts and monthly charts.

This similarity in chart appearance convinces traders that you can day trade successfully with the same tools you use on longer-term charts. Of course, they try to use much of the arsenal of technical analysis that doesn’t work on long-term charts either. Things like Oscillators, Candlesticks and Fibonacci numbers.

However, even trend-following tools that work in intermediate to long-term time frames won’t work in day trading. This is because the trend component is so very small in short-term data that you must use a highly effective method to overcome the costs of trading.

In longer-term trading, you can let your profits run. You do it by definition or it wouldn’t be long-term trading. In day trading you can only let your profits run to the end of the day. This means your average trade (the average profit of both your winning and losing trades) must necessarily be much smaller than if you could let your profits run for days, weeks or months. However, your costs of trading–slippage, commissions, the bid/asked spread and mistakes–stay roughly the same on a per trade basis. Thus, your day trading system must be much more consistent and robust to stay ahead of the costs of trading than would an intermediate to long-term system. There are few day trading approaches that meet this test.

Since market price action is mostly random, successful trading methods must somehow exploit a non-random feature of market price action. The tendency of most markets to trend is the only possible edge in trading, so a winning approach must harness trend in some way. Tradeable trends do not show up often in the very short term. They certainly are not present every day. That is why the person who tries to day trade at least once every day, and perhaps even more often, is doomed to failure. The more often you day trade, the more likely it is that you will be a long-term loser. (more…)

Skill Vs Luck

Michael Mauboussin, head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, has written extensively on the role of skill vs. luck in many endeavors … mostly for business, sports and investing.

He is well worth paying attention to.

This, in particular:

There is actually a very interesting test to determine if there is any skill in an activity, and that is to ask if you can lose on purpose. If you can lose on purpose, then there is some sort of skill. Investing is very interesting because it is difficult to build a portfolio that does a lot better than the benchmark. But it is also actually very hard, given the parameters, to build a portfolio that does a lot worse than the benchmark. What that tells you is that investing is pretty far over to the luck side of the continuum. That is the first important thing.

From that one paragraph, and the logical conclusions that follow (there is a lot more to it than that one paragraph) … a few important points:

  • There is a continuum of luck to skill
  • Investing (I’d substitute ‘trading’ in there) has elements of both … “pretty far over to the luck side of the continuum
  • Given it’s a spectrum, there is skill involved
  • Skill can be improved

(more…)

Go to top