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The 7 Deadly Trading Sins

Here are the seven sins that traders commit that put them in the unprofitable purgatory of the markets.

  1. Sloth: The belief that trading is easy money new traders to be lazy and not put in the work at first to develop their own trading system and plan before trading. Work is required to learn how to trade and work in watching markets for your signals is not an option. Lazy trading is bad trading.
  2. Lust: The lust for material things causes traders to spend profits instead of compounding their capital. The goal of a trader should first be freedom and financial security not Lamborghinis and mansions.
  3. Pride: The inability to admit you are wrong in a trade can turn a small loss into a big loss.
  4. Wrath: Revenge trading is a path to doing more of the wrong thing. Being mad at a market that does not know you exist is illogical and irrational and leads to bad decisions.
  5. Greed: The fastest way to go broke in trading is by trying to get rich quick. The desire to get rich quick leads to bad decisions when speed to profits is the number one priority over common sense.
  6. Envy: Worrying about what other traders or investors are doing or how much markets you do not trade are trending is a waste of mental effort. Focus on your own system and process to keep your own edge.
  7. Gluttony: Trading too big, chasing a trend that is already extended, and over trading are all signs of doing a lot where less is much more healthy for your trading.

William Eckhardt-Quotes

I take the point of view that missing an important trade is a much more serious error than making a bad trade. 

Buying on retracement is psychologically seductive because you feel you’re getting a bargain versus the price you saw a while ago. However, I feel that approach contains more than a drop of poison. 
You shouldn’t plan to risk more than 2 percent on a trade. Although, of course, you could still lose more if the market gaps beyond your intended point of exit. 
I haven’t seen much correlation between good trading and intelligence. Some outstanding traders are quite intelligent, but a few aren’t. Many outstanding intelligent people are horrible traders. Average intelligence is enough. Beyond that, emotional makeup is more important. 
The answer to the question of whether trading can be taught has to be an unqualified yes. Anyone with average intelligence can learn to trade. This is not rocket science. 
If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you’ll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.  (more…)

Don't Get Trapped

1) Anchoring trap. The mind gives a disproportionate amount of weight to the first information received on a topic. Keeping an open mind and avoiding premature conclusions is a way to avoid this trap.

2) Status quo trap. Forecasts tend to perpetuate recent observations. If inflation has been high, it is expected to remain high. It is a psychological risk to assume something different. The authors suggest rational analysis within decision-making to avoid falling into this trap.

3) Confirming evidence trap. Individuals give greater weight to information that supports an existing point of view. Being honest to oneself about one’s motives, examining all evidence with equal rigor, and enlisting independent-minded people to argue against you are ways of mitigating this bias.

4) Overconfidence trap. Individuals overestimate the accuracy of their forecasts. Widening the range of expected possible outcomes is one way to mitigate this tendency.

5) Prudence trap. There is a tendency to temper forecasts that appear extreme. If a forecast turns out to be extreme and then wrong, it could be damaging to one’s career. Therefore, sticking to the herd is safer. The authors again suggest widening the range of expected possible forecasts to avoid falling into this trap.

6) Recallability trap. Individuals are overly influenced by events that have left a strong impression on a person’s memory. These events tend to be catastrophic or dramatic. To avoid falling into this trap, individuals should ground their conclusions in objective data rather than emotion or memories.

The Narrative as Valuation

Aswath Damodaran writes:

If one extreme of the numbers/narrative spectrum is inhabited by those who are slaves to the numbers, at the other extreme are those who not only don’t trust numbers but don’t use them. Instead, they rely entirely on narrative to justify investments and valuations. Their motivations for doing so are simple.

1. Story telling is a powerful attention getter/keeper: Research in both psychology and business point to an undeniable fact. Human beings respond better to stories than to abstractions or numbers, and remember them for longer. After all, the Harvard Business School has taken story telling almost to an art form with its cases, tightly wound narratives that are supposed to convey larger lessons.

2. Unrestrained creativity: “Creative” people through the ages have always fought back against any restraints on their creativity, especially those imposed by those that they view as less imaginative than they are.

3. The Creative Superiority Complex: Just as numbers people intimidate with mounds of numbers, good narrators can browbeat “bean counters” with superior story telling, especially if they can back their stories up with personal experience.

Don’t trade off storytelling. Just don’t do it.

Cutting Losses

cuttinglosses

I simply cut my losses and by doing so kept them small. I’ve had my share of bad decisions in my trading career and keeping losses small in order to avoid huge losses is the toughest part.

Why is that so? From a psychological point of view nobody wants to sell at a loss as in most situations in life making mistakes and admitting them is associated with being a loser. That’s why most people prefer sticking to a losing position. They don’t want to be labeled a loser. So they start hoping their position will turn around and end up being a huge winner. The stock then keeps tanking. Then they hope they will be able to sell for a break even. The stock then goes down even more. That’s when being objective and balanced isn’t possible anymore. Losses have become huge and they are trapped.

The cost is simply huge. You lost money. You lost time. There’s an opportunity cost as well as during that time other stocks would have made you a profit. You lost huge amounts of energy as you couldn’t get this stock out of your mind.

Notice I’ve made ample use of the word ‘huge’. Avoid huge losses at all cost. Avoid thinking in terms of huge gains as well. Stay balanced. Stay focused and calm.

Blackstone's Byron Wien Discusses Lessons Learned in His First 80 Years

Here are some of the lessons I have learned in my first 80 years.  I hope to continue to practice them in the next 80. 

  1. Concentrate on finding a big idea that will make an impact on the people you want to influence.  The Ten Surprises which I started doing in 1986 has been a defining product.  People all over the world are aware of it and identify me with it.  What they seem to like about it is that I put myself at risk by going on record with these events which I believe are probable and hold myself accountable at year-end.  If you want to be successful and live a long, stimulating life, keep yourself at risk intellectually all the time.
  2. Network intensely.  Luck plays a big role in life and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible.  Nurture your network by sending articles, books and emails to people to show you’re thinking about them.  Write op-eds and thought pieces for major publications.  Organize discussion groups to bring your thoughtful friends together.
  3. When you meet someone new, treat that person as a friend.  Assume he or she is a winner and will become a positive force in your life.  Most people wait for others to prove their value.  Give them the benefit of the doubt from the start.  Occasionally you will be disappointed, but your network will broaden rapidly if you follow this path.
  4. Read all the time.  Don’t just do it because you’re curious about something, read actively.  Have a point of view before you start a book or article and see if what you think is confirmed or refuted by the author.  If you do that, you will read faster and comprehend more.
  5. Get enough sleep.  Seven hours will do until you’re sixty, eight from sixty to seventy, nine thereafter which might include eight hours at night and a one hour afternoon nap.
  6. Evolve.  Try to think of your life in phases so you can avoid a burn-out.  Do the numbers crunching in the early phase of your career.  Try developing concepts later on.  Stay at risk throughout the process.
  7. Travel extensively.  Try to get everywhere before you wear out.  Attempt to meet local interesting people where you travel and keep in contact with them throughout your life.  See them when you return to a place. (more…)

Surfer vs Gambler

surfer-The ocean and the markets have many things in common. For one, they are both a dynamic event that is constantly in flux, and from the average traders point of view, beyond any possibility of manipulation. It is what it is; it will go where it goes.

 

This analogy works if we consider the mindset of a surfer. He knows that he is in a passive relationship to the sea, yet he also knows that he can develop a skill in relationship to its ever changing movements in order to reward himself. The surfer cannot demand anything from the sea, he can only wait for it to present him with an opportunity and engage it when the time is right. To go in during a total calm or a tsunami would be both equally foolish; he must wait for the conditions to be right. (more…)

Byron Wien's Lessons Learned

I was scheduled to speak about the world outlook at an investment conference recently and shortly before my time slot the conference organizer said the audience was more interested in what I had learned over the course of my career than what I had to say about the market.  I jotted a few notes down and later expanded and edited what I said that day. I have since been encouraged to share my thoughts with a broader audience.

Here are some of the lessons I have learned in my first 80 years. I hope to continue to practice them in the next 80.

  1. Concentrate on finding a big idea that will make an impact on the people you want to influence.  The Ten Surprises, which I started doing in 1986, has been a defining product.  People all over the world are aware of it and identify me with it.  What they seem to like about it is that I put myself at risk by going on record with these events which I believe are probable and hold myself accountable at year-end.  If you want to be successful and live a long, stimulating life, keep yourself at risk intellectually all the time.
  1. Network intensely.  Luck plays a big role in life, and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible.  Nurture your network by sending articles, books and emails to people to show you’re thinking about them.  Write op-eds and thought pieces for major publications.  Organize discussion groups to bring your thoughtful friends together.
  1. When you meet someone new, treat that person as a friend.  Assume he or she is a winner and will become a positive force in your life.  Most people wait for others to prove their value.  Give them the benefit of the doubt from the start.  Occasionally you will be disappointed, but your network will broaden rapidly if you follow this path. (more…)

Surfer vs Gambler

waiting_for_waveThe ocean and the markets have many things in common. For one, they are both a dynamic event that is constantly in flux, and from the average traders point of view, beyond any possibility of manipulation. It is what it is; it will go where it goes.

 

This analogy works if we consider the mindset of a surfer. He knows that he is in a passive relationship to the sea, yet he also knows that he can develop a skill in relationship to its ever changing movements in order to reward himself. The surfer cannot demand anything from the sea, he can only wait for it to present him with an opportunity and engage it when the time is right. To go in during a total calm or a tsunami would be both equally foolish; he must wait for the conditions to be right. (more…)

Byron Wien’s 20 Rules of Investing & Life

MUST READOutstanding list from a man who has accumulated much wisdom over the years:

 Lessons Learned in His First 80 Years

1. Concentrate on finding a big idea that will make an impact on the people you want to influence. The Ten Surprises, which I started doing in 1986, has been a defining product. People all over the world are aware of it and identify me with it. What they seem to like about it is that I put myself at risk by going on record with these events which I believe are probable and hold myself accountable at year-end. If you want to be successful and live a long, stimulating life, keep yourself at risk intellectually all the time.

2. Network intensely. Luck plays a big role in life, and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible. Nurture your network by sending articles, books and emails to people to show you’re thinking about them. Write op-eds and thought pieces for major publications. Organize discussion groups to bring your thoughtful friends together.

3. When you meet someone new, treat that person as a friend. Assume he or she is a winner and will become a positive force in your life. Most people wait for others to prove their value. Give them the benefit of the doubt from the start. Occasionally you will be disappointed, but your network will broaden rapidly if you follow this path.

4. Read all the time. Don’t just do it because you’re curious about something, read actively. Have a point of view before you start a book or article and see if what you think is confirmed or refuted by the author. If you do that, you will read faster and comprehend more.

5. Get enough sleep. Seven hours will do until you’re sixty, eight from sixty to seventy, nine thereafter, which might include eight hours at night and a one-hour afternoon nap.

6. Evolve. Try to think of your life in phases so you can avoid a burn-out. Do the numbers crunching in the early phase of your career. Try developing concepts later on. Stay at risk throughout the process. (more…)