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Chasing A Trade and Fear

Everyone knows that chasing price is usually not beneficial, we either end up catching the move too late, or we get poor trade location, which makes it more difficult to manage the trade.

However, there are other forms of chasing that are just as common, maybe more common, and just as counter-productive.   Traders who are not profitable are often too quick to chase after new set-ups and indicators, or a different chat room, if that’s your thing.  Obviously, we need to have a trading edge, whether it is from the statistical perspective of a positive expectancy, or simply the confidence in a particular discretionary strategy such as tape reading, following order flow, market profile, etc.

Chasing a trade is the fear of missing out. The fear of missing out is associated with various emotions, including regret. In my work with traders and in my own trading, I’ve seen the incredible power of regret. There’s a lot of talk about fear and greed in trading, but the power of regret is often overlooked. Some of my own worst trades, and those of my clients, often have a ‘regret from missing a prior opportunity’ component. When I finally finish my book on the psychology of financial risk taking, I will include much about this overlooked but very powerful emotion.

Somewhat related to chasing a trade, is impulse trading.  They both have in common the underlying feeling of the fear of missing out.  It’s tempting for me to talk about impulse trading here, but it really deserves its own piece. 

Quotes from Tony Saliba

Always respect the marketplace. Never take anything for granted. Do your homework. Recap the day. Figure out what you did right and what you did wrong. That is one part of the homework; the other part is projective. What do I want to happen tomorrow? What happens if the opposite occurs? What happens if nothing happens? Think through all the “what-ifs.” Anticipate and plan, rather than react.

Clear thinking, ability to stay focused, and extreme discipline. Discipline is number one: Take a theory and stick with it. But you also have to be open-minded enough to switch tracks if you feel that your theory has been proven wrong. You have to be able to say, “My method worked for this type of market, but we are not in that type of market anymore.”

Noise

75% of the price movement in most stocks takes place in 20% of the time. The rest is nothing but noise within a range. Relevant information  that causes repricing doesn’t change quickly and frequently. This is why trends exist. Higher prices often attract more buyers and lower prices attract more sellers until the rules of the game change. Focus on the main drivers and forget the rest.

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