Archives of “January 8, 2019” day

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Charting The Epic Collapse Of The World's Most Systemically Dangerous Bank

  
Analysis, Education
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It’s been almost 10 years in the making, but the fate of one of Europe’s most important financial institutions appears to be sealed.
After a hard-hitting sequence of scandals, poor decisions, and unfortunate events,Visual Capitalist’s Jeff Desjardins notes that Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank shares are now down -48% on the year to $12.60, which is a record-setting low.
Even more stunning is the long-term view of the German institution’s downward spiral.
With a modest $15.8 billion in market capitalization, shares of the 147-year-old company now trade for a paltry 8% of its peak price in May 2007.

THE BEGINNING OF THE END

If the deaths of Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns were quick and painless, the coming demise of Deutsche Bank has been long, drawn out, and painful.

In recent times, Deutsche Bank’s investment banking division has been among the largest in the world, comparable in size to Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Citigroup. However, unlike those other names, Deutsche Bank has been walking wounded since the Financial Crisis, and the German bank has never been able to fully recover.

It’s ironic, because in 2009, the company’s CEO Josef Ackermann boldly proclaimed that Deutsche Bank had plenty of capital, and that it was weathering the crisis better than its competitors. (more…)

5 fundamental truths For Traders

  
Analysis, Education
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Five fundamental truthsTo eliminate the emotional risk of trading, you have to neutralize your expectations about what the market will or will not do at any given moment or in any given situation. You can do this by being willing to think from the markets perspective. Remember, the market is always communicating in probabilities. At the collective level, your edge may look perfect in every respect; but at the individual level, every trader who has the potential to act as a force on price movement can negate the positive outcome of that edge. To think in probabilities, you have to create a mental framework or mind-set that is consistent with the underlying principles of a probabilistic environment. A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths.

Five fundamental truths

  1. Anything can happen.
  2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.
  3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.
  4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.
  5. Every moment in the market is unique.

Basic principles

  
  Education
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Risk management- Plan your loss before planning your profit.

Diversification- Be bullish, be bearish, be involved in various groups/markets.

Proper Position Sizing- Trade small, trade safe.

Effective Trading Plan- Make sure your plan works, and/or makes money.

Cutting Losses Short- Enter a trade that offers a small loss.

Letting Winners Run- Don’t kill your winners.

Curbing Your Emotion- This is a bi product of trading small.

Long: My rules

Short: My emotion

Update: If you took any part of this post personal, don’t. You know I am not in the business of attacking, just trying to get a message across. If I were mad, I wouldn’t have addressed it at all.. When all else fails, “Fresh Tactics.”

25-One Liners for Traders (Read and Understand ) -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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  1.  If you need to spend your money in a relatively short period of time it doesn’t belong in the stock market.
  2.  If you want to earn higher returns you’re going to have to take more risk.
  3.  If you want more stability you’re going to have to accept lower returns.
  4.  The stock market goes up and down.
  5.  If you want to hedge against stock market risk the easiest thing to do is hold more cash.
  6.  Risk can change shape or form but it never really goes away.
  7.  No Trader is right all the time.
  8.  No  Trading strategy can outperform at all times.
  9.  Almost any Trader can outperform for a short period of time.
  10.  Size is the enemy of outperformance.
  11.  Brilliance doesn’t always translate into better Trading results.
  12.  “I don’t know” is almost always the correct answer when someone asks you what’s going to happen in the markets.
  13.  Watching your friends get rich makes it difficult to stick with a sound Trading plan.
  14.  Day trading is hard.
  15.  Outperforming the market is hard (but that doesn’t mean it’s impossible).
  16.  There is no signal known to man that can consistently get you out right before the market falls and get you back in right before it rises again.
  17.  Most backtests work better on a spreadsheet than in the real world because of competition, taxes, transaction costs and the fact that you can’t backtest your emotions.
  18.  It’s almost impossible to tell if you’re being disciplined or irrational by holding on when your investment strategy is underperforming.
  19.  Reasonable investment advice doesn’t really change all that much but most of the time people don’t want to hear reasonable investment advice.
  20.  Successful  Trading is more about behavior and temperament than IQ or education.
  21.  Don’t be surprised when we have bear markets or recessions. Everything is cyclical.
  22.  You are not George Soros or Jesse Livermore
  23.  The market doesn’t care how you feel about a stock or what price you paid for it.
  24.  The market doesn’t owe you high returns just because you need them.
  25.  Predicting the future is hard.
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