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In a Beautiful Passage

  
  Education

In a beautiful passage from Les Miserables,Hugo speculates that Napoleon at Waterloo might be compared to a race horse that was crippled who we all feel great sorrow and compassion for. Contrast this to the envy and loathing that we tend to feel when a rich man loses his fortune especially in the market. One notes a middle response to Tiger Woods missing his third cut in a row in a major tournament. There is empathy because he is a personage of color, but an opposite because he was not a man of faith?

20 Points of Successful Traders

  
  Education
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  • They have the resilience to come back from early losses and account blow ups.
  • They focus on what really matters in trading success.
  • They have developed a trading method that fits their own personality.
  • They trade with an edge.
  • The harder they work at trading the luckier they get.
  • They do the homework to develop a methodology through researching ideas.
  • The principles they use in their trading models are simple.
  • They have mental and emotional control is key while winning or losing.
  • They manage the risk to avoid failure and pain.
  • They have the discipline to follow their trading plan.
  • Market wizards have confidence and independence in themselves as traders
  • They are patient with winning trades and impatient with losing trades.
  • Emotions are dangerous masters to the trader; they know how to manage their own emotions.
  • Market wizards evolve as a trader to avoid eventually failing in a method that has lost its edge over time.
  • It is not the news but how the market reacts to that news is what they watch for.
  • The fully understand the right way to position size for their goals of returns and drawdowns based on their risk/reward and winning percentage.
  • Market wizards understand comfortable trades are usually losing trades while the more uncomfortable trades are usually the winners.
  • They are good losers. Cutting losses when proven wrong and even reversing the direction of their trades when the price action dictates it.
  • The best traders are always learning through their own mistakes.
  • Passion for trading was the fuel for their eventual success.

Anti-Fragile Trader

  
  Education
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The Anti-Fragile Trader is someone that puts on very small position sizes in low probability trades, but shifts huge amounts of risk to the trader on the other side of the trade. The methodology of the anti-fragile trader is to bet on the eventual blowup of the traders making high risk trades for a small premium.

The favorite tool of the Anti-Fragile Trader is the out-of-the-money option contract. For pennies on the dollar, they can control huge amounts of assets. While they expire worthless the majority of the time, when a random Black Swan event hits the market affecting the option contract, they can return thousands of percent on capital at risk, and makeup for all the past losses.

The creator of the anti-fragile concept, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, traded long option strangles, betting on both directions to capture any huge trend event up or down. A company being purchased and rocketing up, or a disaster and a company stock sent crashing, was hugely profitable for Taleb. He also bought option contracts on futures markets. The key is very tiny bets on these trades versus total account equity. Tiny losses and tremendous wins was what made the system profitable. (more…)

Are U Bull or Bear ?

  
  Education
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Casual acquaintances who come to learn know I trade for a living (something I rarely volunteer without being asked) will always ask whether I’m a bullish or bearish on the market or economy. My reply often irritates them when I say “I’m neither one – I’m just an opportunist.”

What I mean by that is that I go out of my way to avoid placing myself into a neat and tidy category that can influence my analysis of the markets and the stocks I trade. Although I’m far from perfect and sometimes let my opinions cloud my judgment (I am human after all), I do really try to do everything I can to look for opportunities on both sides of the market.

Many investors and also traders try to fit themselves into one neat category based on their opinions or of others who’ve they have come to respect. Even worse, those views are frequently tainted by how their portfolio is currently positioned (people want to be right after all) which can be both dangerous and quite unprofitable.

Case in point, I know several traders who are struggling now because they are very bearish about the market. While in principle I agree many of their views, I cannot let those views cloud both my analysis and trading. While I’m fairly certain there will be a time when their views will be proven correct, in this business timing is everything. Opinions after all, don’t pay the bills – only profitable trades do!

Remember this – in trading it isn’t about who is right or wrong. Instead it is all about who can make money and take advantage of the most opportunities in the present. Opinions are terrific things, but in most cases, you would be wise to set them aside and trade the market you see rather than the market you think you should or want to see.

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