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Have a plan for every trade and ask yourself

  • What is my criteria for entering this position? – Ideally this has been tested or proven over time.
  • How much I’m I willing to risk in order to be right? – This will help you determine the appropriate position size, and let you be comfortable if you need to take a loss. 
  • When will I take profits? – Yes you can let your profits run, but there’s nothing worse that letting a nice winning position turn around into a loser. Fixed exits can be very effective and depending on the strategy, and it might be more effective to take profits at times.
  • How will I determine when the conditions for entering a trade have changed? – Regardless of whether you use technical or fundamental analysis, it’s important to know when your reasons for entering a trade are no longer valid.
  • What is my time horizon? – How long do you expect a trade to last? This can give you a basis for closing a position if the move that you expected doesn’t occur. This will also help ensure that trading capital isn’t tied up when it can be used on better opportunities.

11 Thoughts on Trading Stress and Emotion

 *Everyone has a stop-loss level: For some, it’s a price; for others, it’s a pain threshold.11RULES
* It’s not stress and emotion that get in the way of trading; it’s the stress and emotion that results when trading becomes personal: about you, rather than about supply and demand.
* The measure of a trader is how hard he or she works when markets are closed.
* Much bad trading is hormonal: too much testosterone, too little.
* When traders don’t track their results, it’s because they don’t want to know them.
* The best traders have a passion for markets; the worst have a passion for trading. (more…)

The Greatest Trader Who Ever Lived: Jesse Livermore?

Seventy one years ago, on Thursday, November 28, 1940, Jesse Lauriston Livermore, entered the Sherry Netherland Hotel where he took a seat near the bar and enjoyed a couple of old-fashioned. After an hour Jesse Livermore got up and went in the cloakroom, seated himself on a stool, and then shot himself in the head with a .32 Colt automatic. How could the man who is still regarded by many as the greatest trader who ever lived go out this way by taking his own life? It just doesn’t match the rest of his life.

In his youth Jesse was know as the “Boy Plunger” because he looked younger than his years and he would take big positions when he traded against the bucket shops of his day. The bucket shops let traders bet on a stock price, but no trade was executed, the house covered if you were right. How good was he? He was banned from the bucket shops one by one, it was like getting kicked out of a casino because you beat the house so badly with outsized gains. He went on to trade in stocks and commodities and did very well becoming a millionaire many times. Unfortunately he also went bust many times. He made his biggest money in the market crashes of 1907 and 1929,  it is said that J.P. Morgan himself sent word asking for Jesse to please quit shorting stocks. In 1929 the day of one of the biggest market meltdowns he returned home and his wife was scared that he had lost everything, he surprised her by making the biggest money of his trading career. He ended up with the nickname “The Great Bear of Wall Street” because of his shorting activity.

Here are some of his most insightful quotes from his book  “How to Trade in Stocks”

“All through time, people have basically acted and re-acted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope – that is why the numerical formations and patterns recur on a constant basis”

“Successful traders always follow the line of least resistance – follow the trend – the trend is your friend”

“Wall Street never changes, the pockets change, the stocks change, but Wall Street never changes, because hu (more…)

Advice and money making system

This advice from Henry Clews is all you will need to make money.

But few gain sufficient experience in Wall Street to com-
mand success until they reach that period of life in which
they have one foot in the grave. When this time comes
these old veterans of the Street usually spend long intervals
of repose at their comfortable homes, and in times of panic,
which recur sometimes oftener than once a year, these old
fellows will be seen in Wall Street, hobbling down on their
canes to their brokers’ offices.

Then they always buy good stocks to the extent of their
bank balances, which have been permitted to accumulate for
just such an emergency. The panic usually rages until
enough of these cash purchases of stock is made to afford
a big “rake in.” When the panic has spent its force, these
old fellows, who have been resting judiciously on their oars
in expectation of the inevitable event, which usually returns
with the regularity of the seasons, quickly realize, deposit
their profits with their bankers, or the overplus thereof,
after purchasing more real estate that is oa the up grade,
for permanent investment, and retire for another season to
the quietude of their splendid homes and the bosoms of their
happy families.

What follows is very important in so many ways.

If young men had only the patience to watch the specu-
lative signs. of the times, as manifested in the periodical
egress of these old prophetic speculators from their shells
of security, they would make more money at these intervals
than by following up the slippery ” tips ” of the professional
“pointers” of the Stock Exchange all the year round, and
they would feel no necessity for hanging at the coat tails,
around the hotels, of those specious frauds, who pretend to
be deep in the councils of the big operators and of all the
new ” pools ” in process of formation. I say to the young
speculators, therefore, watch the ominous visits to the Street
of these old men. They are as certain to be seen on the eve
of a panic as spiders creeping stealthily and noiselessly
from their cobwebs just before rain. If you only wait to
see them purchase, then put up a fair margin for yourselves,
keep out of the u bucket shops “as well [as the “sample
rooms,” and only visit Delmonico’s for light lunch in busi-
ness hours, you can hardly fail to realize handsome profits
on your ventures.

Great stuff,indeed, written over a hundred plus years ago.

Trader Psychology

  1. Transcending Common Trading Pitfalls
    • All market behavior is multifaceted, uncertain, and ever changing.
    • “I am employing a robust, positive expectancy trading model and am appropriately managing risk on each and every trade.  Losses are an inevitable and unavoidable aspect of executing all models.  Consequently, I will confidently continue trading.”
    • Denial of loss and uncertainty is extremely destructive because it prevents us from thinking in terms of probabilities, planning for the possibility of loss, and consequently from the necessity of consistently managing risk.
    • If we view markets as adversarial we cut ourselves off from emotionally tempered, objective solutions to speculation (opportunities to profit)
    • Blind faith is no substitute for research, methodical planning, stringent risk management, playing the probabilities, and unwavering discipline
    • Depression is a suboptimal emotional state because it allows past losses or missed opportunities to limit our ability to perceive information about the markets in the present
    • We are not our trades; they are merely an activity in which we are engaged
    • Greed is linked to fear of regret, which is the greatest force impeding a trader’s performance outside of fear of loss
    • Market offers limitless opportunities for abundance
    • Trading biases prevent us from objectively perceiving reality, thereby limiting our ability to capitalize on various opportunities in the markets.

(more…)

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