Archives of “January 1, 2019” day

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Intraday Update :Nifty Future-Bank Nifty

  
Analysis, Education

In Morning ,I had written to watch 5029-5038 level.Just kissed 5045 & started falling.

-Now ,While updating its trading at 5008 level.

What to expect ?

Thirsty Traders :Just see if not able to cross Today’s high till end session and trades below 5029 level.

Then expect slide upto 4980-4964 level.

If by chance breaks 4964 level with volumes then it will create panic and allround selling may start.

-Unexpected level of 4915-4899….Not ruled out.

Above 5038 level if trades with volumes /closes above this level then will see rally upto 5082-5097—5110-5137 level.

If not Today ,Then latest by Monday first session rally will fizzle out.Trade with levels ………….nothing else.Use eye and brain while u trade instead of watching Blue channel ,Movies.

Rally from 8815 to 9284 …..Without any Logic.

Again Today kissed Neckline and crashed.

Students of Technical Analysis watch chart instead of watching Blue channels babes.

Now ,While updating trading at 9152 level.

Below 9167 level ,Bears will  have upperhand.Suppose breaks 9138 with volumes then watch panic upto 9051-9022 level.

I will update more to our SUBSCRIBERS………!!

CINEVISTAAS :From morning till this time ,recieved more then 85 e-mail about this stock.

-Again telling and writing ,if u dont have patience…dont trade ,dont Invest.Last monthe in April we recommended HENKEL @ 28….and in one month it went upto 60 level.

-Mumbai people ….go and see yourself…..what is the story of this land.Technically mind blowing.The day some South Mumbai …Bull will see this story then sky will be limit.

Updated at 13:01/28th May/Baroda

Mr.Warren Buffett :Buy and Hold -Failed

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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From the wires today:

“OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Warren Buffett’s company reported a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit Friday because the improvement at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s operating companies couldn’t overcome $1.4 billion in paper losses on derivative contracts. Berkshire’s strong performances from its railroad, insurance and manufacturing businesses was overshadowed by the plummeting value of the Omaha company’s derivatives — many of which are tied to the value of four major stock markets.”

From Buffett himself in 2002:

“The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.”

From Bloomberg recently:

“Buffett’s well known for his criticism of derivatives. Yet Berkshire in recent years has become a big player, with some $60 billion in derivatives contracts. Under any new derivatives regulation, Berkshire would be likely to have to produce collateral for new derivatives contracts it writes. This would limit the attractiveness of new derivatives deals for Buffett, who has boasted that Berkshire rarely does a deal that calls for it to produce collateral. But that’s not why Buffett has been pushing back against the financial reform bill in the Senate. Instead, Buffett says he’s concerned that the legislation would impose collateral requirements on existing contracts — which he says would be illegal. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., made the same case this week as he defected from the Democrats backing the financial reform bill. Whatever his logic, pushing back on derivatives reform has the interesting side effect of aligning Buffett, with his sterling reputation, with the widely derided Wall Street banks.”

Buy and hold? Buying strong businesses? Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction? Bailouts of many of the components of BRKA? Does anyone have the cajones to criticize Buffett? There has to be at least one emasculated weenie out there who will come on here and tell me that I can’t criticize America’s wealthiest just because he is rich. Right?

The Buffett myth is just that — a myth. If not for the fall 2008 bailouts, he would be on the senior circuit revising history along with Greenspan. Why my stark view on this lovely sunny morning in beautiful Southern California? Cause no matter how many books populate Amazon, all preaching about how you can become the next Buffett, they are all disingenuous fairy tales.

The Blind Traders and the Market

  
  Education
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blind-men

There is an old parable known as “the blind men and the elephant.”  In this story, there are four blind men who are asked to determine what an elephant looks like.  The first blind man feels the leg of the elephant and says, “The elephant is like a tree because it is large and round like a pillar.”  The second man feels the tail and says, “The elephant is like a rope because it is small and coarse.”  The third man feels the ear and says, “The elephant is like a fan because it is flat and thin.”  The fourth man feels the trunk and says, “The elephant is like a snake because it is long and curves.” 

A king comes to the four blind men and says, “all of you are correct.”  The king goes on to explain that each one had drastically different descriptions of the elephant because they are all feeling different parts.  So, they are all correct.  The elephant has all the features described by the four blind men.

This parable is a good analogy describing different types of profitable traders. Many of the arguments that erupt between traders on social media are due to not understanding the others  time frames or not understanding the other trader’s position sizing, stop loss level, or expected winning percentage. Also too many cult members of Elliot Wave, Trend Following, Market Profile, Day Traders, and option traders etc. think their way of trading price action is the only way when their way is only one of many paths to profitability. There are as many ways to trade price action to be profitable as there are profitable traders.

The elephant in the room is that profitable traders do a few things in common: (more…)

List of Common Characteristics of Great Traders -10 Points

  
  Education
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1. They all have a tested, positive expectancy system that’s proved to make money for the market type for which it was designed.

2. They all have systems that fit them and their beliefs. They understand that they make money with their systems because their systems fit them.

3. They totally understand the concepts they are trading and how those concepts generate low-risk ideas

. 4. They all understand that when they get into a trade, they must have some idea of when they are wrong and will bail out

. 5. They all evaluate the ratio of reward to risk in each trade they take. For mechanical traders, this is part of their system. For discretionary traders, this is part of their evaluation before they take the trade.

6. They all have a business plan to guide their trading. You must treat your trading like any other business

7. They all use position sizing. They have clear objectives written out, something that most traders/investors do not have. They also understand that position sizing is the key to meeting those objectives and have worked out a position sizing algorithm to meet those objectives.

8. They all understand that performance is a function of personal psychology and spend a lot of time working on themselves. You must become an efficient rather than inefficient decision maker.

9. They take total responsibility for the results they get. They don’t blame someone else or something else. They don’t justify their results. They don’t feel guilty or ashamed about their results. They simply assume that they created them and that they can create better results by eliminating mistakes.

10. They understand that not following their system and business plan rules is a mistake. If you make even one mistake per month, you can turn a profitable system into a disaster. Thus, the key to becoming efficient is to eliminate such mistakes.

What elements from the above list do you need to work on more than any other? Yes, take a moment to think about this today. As you set your top priorities for this new second quarter, I recommend focusing on just one of these elements by outlining specific steps you need to take this quarter to improve. For some, this will require further study. For others, it only requires just some minor behavior modification, refocus and attitude adjustment. Many times the difference between being great and mediocre

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