Bloomberg with the report on a missed payment by Fantasia Holdings.
The news was out overnight so it is not new news, posting as an ICYMI.
Says the Bloomberg report (more at that link above (may be gated) )
- Fantasia didn’t repay a $205.7 million bond that was due Monday, according to a company statement.
- Separately, property management company Country Garden Services Holdings Co. said that a unit of Fantasia didn’t repay a 700 million yuan ($108 million) loan that also came due on Monday and that a default was probable.
- Shenzhen-headquartered Fantasia’s management and board “will assess the potential impact on the financial condition and cash position of the Group” stemming from the skipped bond payment, it said.
1.) Learn to be wrong. Traditional education trains us into thinking that we have to be right to get the grade. With investing and trading, focusing on being right will bring assymetric risk to your methodology and will eventually lead to a blowout at least once. – Steven Place
2.) First, invest in yourself. That is, acquire as much knowledge as possible and analytical skills in a wide variety of disciplines and develop the ability to abstract yourself from the present. Become a mathematician, economist, political scientist, psychologist, sociologist, and futurist. – Gary Evans
3.) You are not a market-timing genius and neither is anyone selling services to you! There is a long-term path to progress, with several good ways to get aboard. Be interested, be watchful, but do not be too confident. – Jeff Miller
4.) First, understand that ultimately you are responsible for the outcome of your investments and that they shouldn’t blame bad markets, bad advisors, or bad luck if they lose money. Secondly, always try to stay as objective and unemotional as you can about what you invest in. And lastly, remember that discipline and risk management is the key. You can lose all the profits from five well managed trades or investments with one poorly managed one.
Paul Tudor Jones is one of the greatest traders that’s ever lived. He has the long term record to prove it.
Here are 10 principles that made him a successful and profitable trader.
Here’s how it works.
If I make an outrageous prediction or label a prediction outrageous and I am wrong, I respond to criticism like this:
“Well, I said it was an outrageous prediction.”
This discounts my responsibility for being wrong to some degree. But if I am right, I will say,
“look how brilliant I am. I made an outrageous prediction and it was dead on.”
Outrageous predictions are used to manage impressions. One defers responsibility if wrong and gloats incessantly if right.
It is a manipulative gambit.
People, who make outrageous predictions know exactly what they are doing. Their potential reward is much bigger than the risk they are taking of being publicly laughed at. Many people have made a career by being right once about a major event that nobody expected (usually a big market correction).
Predicting and speculating have a lot in common, but they are also very different. By definition, predictions are about dealing with factors, you have no control over. When you speculate in the stock market, you also don’t have control over which one of your trades will be profitable and for the most part how profitable it will be. You could improve the odds, but you can’t impact the outcome of each individual trade. When you speculate, you put your own money at risk. You could be right for the wrong reasons and make money (lucky). You could also be wrong despite having an edge and still lose money (no approach has 100% success rate). Since you have very little control on some of the variables that impact your results, it doesn’t really make sense to speculate about only one outcome, because in this case you are getting prepared for only one outcome. The solution – You develop several different scenarios and you prepare for each of them.
A) You could be wrong
- where is your stop loss?
- How much of your capital are you going to risk?
B) You could be right (more…)
Nice way to show how the investor sentiment cycle lags behind the business cycle, yet manages to follow it . . .
1) Preparation to start the day and week: Having a clearly formulated strategy to guide trading decisions;
2) Keeping score: Using a trading journal to structure learning, document progress, and sustain positive motivation;
3) Managing risk and maximizing opportunity: Trading with more risk/size when trading well and clearly seeing opportunity and pulling back risk when drawing down, trading poorly, and perceiving little opportunity;
4) Taking breaks: Stepping back from markets periodically to gain fresh perspective, reformulate views, and tweak strategies;
5) Treating trading as a business: Limiting overhead, having a clearly defined plan to move toward profitability, focusing on distinctive areas of strengths and opportunity.
So much of what makes traders great is what they do between market sessions, how they do it, and how much of it they do.