On protecting emotional equilibrium:
To this day, when something happens to disturb my emotional equilibrium and my sense of what the world is like, I close out all positions related to that event.
On the first rule of trading:
The first rule of trading — there are probably many first rules — is don’t get caught in a situation in which you can lose a great deal of money for reasons you don’t understand.
On making a million:
Michael [Marcus] taught me one thing that was incredibly important… He taught me that you could make a million dollars. He showed me that if you applied yourself, great things could happen. It is very easy to miss the point that you really can do it. He showed me that if you take a position and use discipline, you can actually make it.”
On allowing for mistakes:
He also taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.
On elements of a successful trading:
I’m not sure one can really define why some traders make it, while others do not. For myself, I can think of two important elements. First, I have the ability to imagine configurations of the world different from today and really believe it can happen. I can imagine that soybean prices can double or that the dollar can fall to 100 yen. Second, I stay rational and disciplined under pressure.
[Successful traders are] strong, independent, and contrary in the extreme. They are able to take positions others are unwilling to take. They are disciplined enough to take the right size positions. A greedy trader always blows out.
On having a market view:
I almost always trade on a market view; I don’t trade simply on technical information. I use technical analysis a great deal and it is terrific, but I can’t hold a position unless I understand why the market should move.
…there are well-informed traders who know much more than I do. I simply put things together… The market usually leads because there are people who know more than you do.
On technical analysis:
Technical analysis, I think, has a great deal that is right and a great deal that is mumbo jumbo… There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future. Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders may say about the future activity of other traders.
…For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer. Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. But, of course, that would be sheer folly. If you are a responsible participant in the market, you always want to know where the market is — whether it is hot and excitable, or cold and stagnant. You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge.
…Technical analysis reflects the voice of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual. It is very important for me to study the details of price action to see if I can observe something about how everybody is voting. Studying the charts is absolutely critical and alerts me to existing disequilibria and potential changes.
On trading ranges and price patterns: (more…)
Archives of “money” tag
rssChallenges/Rewards
CHALLENGE
Getting attention.
REWARD
Barrier to entry nonexistent.
CHALLENGE
Getting publicity.
REWARD
Publicity is nearly irrelevant and the means of spreading the word are at your fingertips.
CHALLENGE
Making money.
REWARD
Successful artists are making more money in adjusted dollars than they ever were, just not as much as bankers or techies. Furthermore, there are many avenues of revenue. Endorsements, merch, privates…and live pays better than ever before.
CHALLENGE
Only Top Forty counts/can make you go nuclear. (more…)
Positive awareness trumps negative self talk
The language you use as a trader can provide either positive reinforcement through honest self awareness or negative results through demeaning self talk. In other words, when discussing your trading with others or in your journal become aware of how you view yourself. Do you see yourself as an amateur, a whipping post, a loser? Do you blame an indicator or the market or an advisor for your failures and lack of discipline? When you are with others do you brag about your winners and hide your losers? All of this talk is based on fear: fear of being wrong, fear of what others might think of you and your decisions; fear of the market; fear of being afraid. When you practice positive self awareness you create a fertile learning environment that allows you to grow and progress as a BETTER trader, not focus on BECOMING a GOOD trader (implying that you are a bad one). When I work with individuals I often hear the following: “If I would just do this I would become a good trader” or “If I had your discipline I would be a able to make money.” These statements are grounded in a sense of doubt and fear. Instead, these statements should be replaced with “I am becoming a BETTER trader because I know the market cannot hurt me” AND “I am becoming a BETTER trader the more I stick with my rules.” See the difference between the two? One is focused on the joy of progress; the other on the fear of not being good enough. Are you focused on progress or failure? Listen to yourself and you will quickly figure it out. It is EASY to get down on yourself and much HARDER to remain positive in the face of adversity.
Self Observation and feedback
Three questions to ask at the start of the trading day:
Am I bringing baggage to the day’s trade? Am I carrying over frustrations from losing money or missing opportunity? Am I feeling particular pressure to make winning trades? Am I locked into a view of markets because those views haven’t been paying me?
Am I prepared? Have I identified significant price levels for the day? Have I gained a feel for how various markets have been trading overnight? Do I know if economic reports are scheduled for the day and what the expectations are?
What am I working on? Do I have goals for the day? What have been the mistakes I’ve been making that need to be corrected? What improvements have I made that I want to cement? What kinds of trades have been working best for me, and am I prepared to actively look for those?
The idea is to become a good self-observer!
The Right Approach to Losses
First of all, understand that losses are a necessary part of any risk taking activity. The goal should always be to blunt the impact of losses as opposed to eliminating the losses altogether. There is a distinct difference between minimizing the impact of losses versus minimizing the number of losses. If the money you are risking stands between you and hunger, think twice before placing it on the line. Risk capital must be true risk capital.
Second, losses are better teachers than wins. As noted above, wins often lead to complacency. Losses usually compel you to figure out “why.” If small and incidental to your overall strategy, they confirm that your plan is working. If relatively outsized and/or unexpected, losses make you examine the precedent trades and determine if your strategy should be adjusted. This is how advancement happens. Thomas Edison needed nearly 10,000 tries to find filament for an incandescent bulb that would last for more than a few hours. Of the thousands of attempts that did not produce the bulb, Edison did not see them as failures, but rather as things that didn’t work which was useful knowledge in and of itself. By knowing what didn’t work, Edison was able to find his way to what did. Containing and then examining your losses will help you do the same with your trading strategy.
Third, recognize that losses that are kept small relative to your portfolio are a big part of the fuel that propels your account higher. They say that you are taking prudent steps to grow your account… that you are “in the game.” The alternative, especially if you accept that losses are a necessary part of trading, is no risk taking or the taking of outsize risk (refusing to cut losers). Neither of these provide a path to account growth. If you can find/develop a trading method that allows for (in fact, embraces), many small losses while still delivering profits overall, you will have gone a long way toward eliminating the trepidation that most new traders feel about entering the fray. You will also be able to stop worrying about having the “right” picks.
The Dollar Surge is a Sign of Emerging Market Troubles.
A strong dollar doesn’t worry me, but a dollar that is THIS strong is a sign that something worrisome could be going on. Historically, substantial year over year increases in the dollar have been consistent with a flight to safety. With the recent European and Emerging Market turmoil we’re seeing huge demand for dollars as a good deal of foreign debt is dollar denominated. The current surge in the dollar is a sign that there’s a flight to safety occurring and more turmoil in the financial markets than many might presume.
Game Theory And The Markets
When you take a position in the market, you are really playing a game against the market. Profitability doesn’t lie in your actions alone, it lies in the interaction between your position and the market’s price fluctuations…The goal of the individual is obvious. It is to make money. But what is the goal of the market? Simply put, the market wants you to lose money. This may be a provocative thought, but it is quite reasonable in the context of game theory.
4 Pearls of Wisdom for Traders
· The best trades come when the crowd leans the wrong way. In other words, the majority piles in one way but profits come from trading it the other way.
· Market direction is only as strong as the leadership that guides it. Stocks play follow-the-leader even when the charts tell a different tale.
· Follow the professionals in quiet times and the public in wild times.
· Good timing on bad stocks makes more money over time than bad timing on good stocks.
The Best Rupee You Can Spend
A few days ago, I printed myself a little label and adhered it to the base of my monitor:
Now, before I close a position, I glance at it. If necessary, I will say the phrase out loud (I stop at nothing to enforce discipline). That little sticker has already made me a lot of money. I suggest you consider one for yourself.
Insider Trading in UTTAM GALVA STEEL ?
Today morning just read this NEWS :ArcelorMittal gets in through Uttam Galva
Uttam Galva, in a late evening notice to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), announced that it will allow ArcelorMittal to acquire shares in the company through an open offer.
At the first stage, Lakhmi Mittal-owned ArcelorMittal will purchase a 5% stake for Rs69.6 crore at Rs120 a share.
Subsequently, the Mittals will make an open offer to purchase a 30% stake at the same price paid to the promoters for the 5% stake, valuing the company at Rs1,384.3 crore.
This is Daily chart of UTTAM STEEL.
Just see the movement of the stock from Rs.53 on 11th August and on Friday it closed at 113.95 level.
My question to Readers ,Traders ,STOCK EXCHANGE and SEBI is ….The annoucement of stake sale or picking of stake by Arcelor Mittal was decided on Friday (4th September) or talks were going on since last 1-2 months ??
-Who were knowing about this Deal ?
-Who bought these shares ??
-Do u not think Insiders in India are minting money and people close to Company circle ??
-Just small thought ….if possible comment ………Jai Ho !!
Updated at 18:52/5th Sept/Baroda