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Justin Mamis: ‚When to Sell’ – Inside Strategies For Stock market Profits

Time for another excerpt post taken from “When to sell” from Justin Mamis. Probably my favourite author. Do yourself a favour. Buy all his books and read them. Repeat the process. The best education you can get. This will make you a better trader and will provide you with tremendous insight into how markets work and how to deal with all the psychological aspects of trading.

Justin Mamis: ‚When to Sell’ – Inside Strategies For Stock market Profits

Chapter 2: ‘Right is wrong’ pages 23-24

With experience, and with some grasp of what has consistently affected your judgment in the past, you should be able to determine at which times and under what conditions you function best…and when you should be extra-careful, or even stay away entirely. One important thing every professional knows, or ought to know since it is his business to know, is that he doesn’t have to play the game every single minute of every day. The advent of desktop machines and their ability to present right in your face what is actually happening every single minute of every day – and some with bells and whistles to call your attention to some petty and momentary thing that has just happened – has had its effect, though: the less experienced, the less disciplined, have become increasingly short-term oriented and excitable, more, in fact, akin to what we believed in the past that the public could be criticized for, of playing a game, of having a predilection for continually being in the market in one way or another. “Isn’t there one stock worth buying?” was a common question during the massive 1973-74 bear market, and still is. There is no rule that says you always have to have action; yet that is perhaps the most disastrous of all the common errors we’ve noticed. Rather than continually confronting the market on its own inscrutable terms, stop and ask yourself what you know, whether what you know is enough to act upon, and how you are relating to it. Maybe it is a period when the market’s personality conflicts with yours, or something in your extra-market life is hampering your ability to view stock action objectively, or, simply, perhaps it’s a time when the market’s course isn’t clear to anyone. Then it is best to step aside. You owe it to yourself to find out exactly how ready and able you are to play, because it’s yourself you end up playing against.

Game Theory And The Markets

game theoryWhen you take a position in the market, you are really playing a game against the market. Profitability doesn’t lie in your actions alone, it lies in the interaction between your position and the market’s price fluctuations…The goal of the individual is obvious. It is to make money. But what is the goal of the market? Simply put, the market wants you to lose money. This may be a provocative thought, but it is quite reasonable in the context of game theory.

3 Biases That Affect Your Trading

1) Gambler’s fallacy bias

People tend to believe that after a string of losses, a win is going to come next. Take for example that you are playing a game of coin tossing with a capital of $1000. You lost 3 bets in a row on heads and cost you $100 each bet. What will you bet next and how much would you stake?

It is likely you will continue to bet on heads and with a higher stake, say $300. You do not ‘believe’ that it can be tails consistently. People fail to realize coin tossing is random and past results do not affect future outcomes.

Traders must treat each trade independently and not be affected by past results. It is important that your trading system tells you how much to stake your capital which is also known as position sizing, so that the risk-reward ratio will be optimal.

2) Limit profits and enlarge losses bias

People tend to limit their profits and give more room to losses. Nobody likes the feeling of losing. Most investors tend to hold on to losses and hope their investments will turn around soon, and they will be happy if their holdings break even. However, chances are that they will amount to greater losses. On the other hand, if they are winning, most investors tend to take profits early as they fear their profits will be wiped out soon. Thereafter, they regretted that they didn’t hold a little longer (sounds familiar?).

One of the most important principle in trading is contrary to what most investors do – Traders have to LIMIT LOSSES and let PROFITS RUN. Losses are part and parcel of trading and hence, it is crucial to protect the capital from depleting too much – live to fight another day is the mantra for all traders. Large profits are thus required to cover the small losses – so do not limit profit runs.

3) I am right bias

Humans are egoistic in nature and we want to prove that we are right. High accuracy is not important in trading but making more money when you are right is. Remember what George Soros said, “It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

3 Biases That Affect Your Trading

Van K. Tharp mentioned there are 3 biases that will affect one’s trading:

1) Gambler’s fallacy bias

People tend to believe that after a string of losses, a win is going to come next. Take for example that you are playing a game of coin tossing with a capital of $1000. You lost 3 bets in a row on heads and cost you $100 each bet. What will you bet next and how much would you stake?

It is likely you will continue to bet on heads and with a higher stake, say $300. You do not ‘believe’ that it can be tails consistently. People fail to realize coin tossing is random and past results do not affect future outcomes.

Traders must treat each trade independently and not be affected by past results. It is important that your trading system tells you how much to stake your capital which is also known as position sizing, so that the risk-reward ratio will be optimal.

2) Limit profits and enlarge losses bias

People tend to limit their profits and give more room to losses. Nobody likes the feeling of losing. Most investors tend to hold on to losses and hope their investments will turn around soon, and they will be happy if their holdings break even. However, chances are that they will amount to greater losses. On the other hand, if they are winning, most investors tend to take profits early as they fear their profits will be wiped out soon. Thereafter, they regretted that they didn’t hold a little longer (sounds familiar?). (more…)