4 STEPS TO TRADING PROGRESS : HEAR -RECEIVE -BELIEVE -APPLY

HEAR

To HEAR you have to listen and listen intentionally. You will not HEAR properly if you are focused on other things. This situation is especially true on a webinar or during the trading day when the markets are open. It is essential to set distractions aside and HEAR what is being stated.

RECEIVE

To RECEIVE something you have to HEAR it and come into agreement with it.  To RECEIVE is to take it unto yourself and personally grab hold of what you have heard and make it your own.

BELIEVE

To be successful you have to believe that what you HEAR and RECEIVE can add value to your current situation. You have to BELIEVE that a specific strategy repeated and correctly  executed, regards of any specific outcome, will provide successful results over time. You will act on what you believe In all areas of life.  Please make sure you really do BELIEVE it and are not allowing any contradictory mindset to compete with your belief because it is possible to hold two opposing beliefs at once. This is being double minded and leads to instability.  Being firm and unswayed in what you BELIEVE can lead to becoming a successful trader.

APPLY

APPLY Is taking action on what you BELIEVE. You will not fully apply something until you fully believe it. Application requires action. You must be willing to pull the trigger on a trade when all of your rules are meet or when all the T’s have been crossed.  You must also without reservation pull the trigger to exit at your predetermined stop loss. Regardless of what we think or BELIEVE we will also act out of core or dominant belief. To properly apply ourselves we have to revise our core beliefs.  If I APPLY all of my predefined rules for entry and exit even when the trades go against me, my core belief will keep me confident that I did the right thing in making this trade and over time I will accomplish my goals. In addition my loss will not stress me because based on following my predefined rules it was a small loss based on a predetermined, well thought out process.

As we move forward we should focus on hearing , receiving, believing and applying.

THE 10 COMMANDMENTS FOR MAKING MONEY

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1.  BELIEVE IN THE DIGNITY AND MORALITY OF BUSINESS:  Making money is much harder if, deep down, you suspect it to be a morally reprehensible activity.

2.  EXTEND THE NETWORK OF YOUR CONNECTEDNESS TO MANY PEOPLE:  Befriend many people who are a rung or two above and below your financial level, then find ways to help them achieve their desires.  You will have discovered the secret of Partnership Power.

3.  GET TO KNOW YOURSELF:  To change the way others see you, first you have to learn to see yourself as others see you.

4.  DO NOT PURSUE PERFECTION:  Neither neglect the imperfect nor expend yourself on futile pursuit of perfection, while failing to make the most of less perfect circumstnaces.

5.  LEAD CONSISTENTLY AND CONSTANTLY:  Learning to lead is important, but it may not be what you think it is.  Leadership is not a noun; it is a verb.  It is not an identity; it is an action.  Don’t try to become a leader, just do it. Just lead.

6.  CONSTANTLY CHANGE THE CHANGEABLE WHILE STEADFASTLY CLINGING TO THE UNCHANGEABLE:  Convert change from enemy to ally by understanding when to enjoy the exhilaration of change and and when to fight it and steadfastly defend the unchangeable.

7.  LEARN TO FORETELL THE FUTURE:  Who is wise? One who can tell what will be hatched from an egg that has been laid. Not he who can see the future-that is a prophet.  Wisdom is seeing tomorrow’s consequences of today’s events.

8.  KNOW YOUR MONEY:  Your money is a quantifiable analog for your life force-the aggregate of your time, skills, experience, persistance, and relationships.

9.  ACT RICH: GIVE AWAY 10 PERCENT OF YOUR AFTER TAX INCOME:  Through the mystical alchemy of money, giving charity jump-starts wealth creation.

10.  NEVER RETIRE:  Integrate your vocation and your identity by thinking of life as a journey rather than a destination.

If you have not figured it out yet you soon will: learning to trade inside the charts finds its firm foundation outside the charts.  It is all in the way you think and in what you believe about money and wealth creation.

Germany June Ifo business climate index 86.2 vs 85.0 expected

Latest data released by Ifo – 24 June 2020

  • Prior 79.5
  • Expectations 91.4 vs 87.0 expected
  • Prior 80.1
  • Current assessment 81.3 vs 84.0 expected
  • Prior 78.9
Slight delay in the release by the source. Little surprise as business sentiment improved in the month of June but is still keeping at rather subdued levels compared to previous years. The sharper-than-expected bounce in expectations is a positive takeaway though.
Ifo notes that the rebound in June is the strongest increase recorded in the survey’s history.

For now, this just reaffirms better sentiment as the economy reopens regionally but we’ll have to see how all of this plays out in the coming months and if the recovery is as optimistic as what recent investor and business sentiment data suggests.

Dollar selling creeps in, S&P 500 futures higher

Risk on the theme

The new week is starting where the last one left off.
S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% to start the week after a massive rally in global equities last week, including +10% in some European equities.
Protests didn’t slow down the market last week and they aren’t having an effect today. In FX, the US dollar and yen are sagging, which is a classic risk-on stance.
So far the moves are modest with the commodity currencies up 15-20 pips. The pound was especially soft late in the day Friday but it’s got some life early, up 27 pips to 1.2695.

Non-OPEC meeting finished and Reuters source ‘sees positive signs’

We will see about that

It’s not looking good for an OPEC cut or oil. WTI is down $2.13 to $43.76.
We should be getting some more-definitive signs shortly. I think Saudi Arabia might cut anyway because they want to keep Trump happy and avoid the imminent collapse of US shale.

Yields continue to track lower on the day

US Treasury 10-year yields down by nearly 5 bps to 1.585%

USGG10YR

The risk-off mood looks to stay the course ahead of European trading and this should set up a softer start for risk in the session ahead.
The track lower in yields is also pushing the yen higher as we see USD/JPY inch towards session lows of 109.78 as sellers threaten a break of the 100-hour moving average.
The latest economic data from China isn’t helping in that regard, with CAAM also warning that auto sales and production figures in February will be “bad”.

SNB leaves policy rate unchanged at -0.75%

SNB announces its latest monetary policy decision – 12 December 2019

  • Prior -0.75%
  • Sight deposits rate unchanged at -0.75%
  • Remains prepared to intervene in markets if needed
  • Risks to the global economy remain tilted to the downside
  • Franc remains highly valued; FX market remains fragile
  • Willing to intervene in FX market as necessary, while taking overall currency situation into consideration
  • Negative rates and willingness to intervene should counteract attractiveness of the franc and ease upward pressure on the currency
  • 2019 GDP forecast seen at around 1.0% (previously 0.5% to 1.0%)
  • 2020 GDP forecast seen between 1.5% to 2.0%
  • 2019 inflation forecast seen at 0.4% (unchanged)
  • 2020 inflation forecast seen at 0.1% (previously 0.2%)
  • 2021 inflation forecast seen at 0.5% (previously 0.6%)
No key changes by the SNB in their language as they continue to keep rates well in negative territory and reiterated that the Swiss franc remains “highly valued”.
Despite mounting skepticism over its negative rates policy, it doesn’t look like it will come to an end any time soon although the pressure on lenders and the public may still keep the central bank sidelined further for the time being.
That said, if trade risks materialise and the global economy suffers a more profound slowdown next year, it’s only a matter of time before they will have to step in and take action.

Barkindo: OPEC’s challenge has always been to depoliticise oil

Sure, and what exactly is a monopoly again?

  • The world is becoming unpredictable in terms of economic outlook and geopolitics
  • Saudi attack is almost behind us thanks to swift response
  • Number one issue we face today is the risks to the global economy
There is no doubt that the bloc still has a strong hold over the oil market but it has been quite the fall from grace ever since fracking and shale oil made its entrance in 2014.
Shale

Trump reacts to the ECB decision to cut rates

Trump tweets on the European Central Bank

Via twitter:
European Central Bank, acting quickly, Cuts Rates 10 Basis Points. They are trying, and succeeding, in depreciating the Euro against the VERY strong Dollar, hurting U.S. exports…. And the Fed sits, and sits, and sits. They get paid to borrow money, while we are paying interest!
Aside from the random capitalization, he’s accurate about the impacts. I’m not sure he wants the eurozone economy though.

US nonfarm payroll data due 1230GMT on July 5 2019 – preview

The headline for the June NFP is at median consensus of +160K, after the previous in May at +75K.

for the unemployment rate
  • expected 3.6%, prior 3.6%
Average hourly earnings
  • expected 0.3% m/m, prior 0.2%
  • expected 3.2%, prior 3.1%
Average weekly hours worked expected unchanged on the month at 34.4

This now via Westpac from a Friday note, in brief:

  • anticipated to bounce back after a soft read in May (+75k in the month and the previous level revised down by 75k). Consensus for Jun is for a 160k increase in employment with the unemployment rate holding at 3.6%. 
  • The trend lower in average hourly earnings is seen to stabilise, edging up to 3.2%yr from 3.1%yr in May