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Eurostoxx futures +1.0% in early European trading

A slightly more positive tone but it belies the underlying risk tone risk

  • German DAX futures +1.0%
  • French CAC 40 futures +0.6%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.9%
Despite some positive elements to kick start the morning, it doesn’t quite tell the whole story in the market as we see the dollar keep slightly firmer to start the session.
US futures are also down by 0.5% currently while the bond market is hinting at more tepid tones as well. As such, be mindful of stock gains ahead of the cash market open.

Switzerland outlines plans to slowly re-open

Swiss government outlines plans for what’s next

  • Doctors, hairdressers, massage and cosmetic parlours can reopen April 27
  • Obligatory schools, stores and markets reopening on May 11
  • Expands financial support to cover more self-employed people such as taxi drivers
  • Non-obligatory schools, universities, museums, zoos and libraries to reopen on June 8
  • Easing of restrictions to be accompanied by protective measures and obligation to wear masks is possible
  • Relaxation of restrictions hinges on no significant rise in new COVID-19 cases
  • Vulnerable people should stay at home
The big question for the rest of the year is how well this will work and how many cases/deaths are ‘tolerable’.

The Dollar Surge is a Sign of Emerging Market Troubles.

A strong dollar doesn’t worry me, but a dollar that is THIS strong is a sign that something worrisome could be going on. Historically, substantial year over year increases in the dollar have been consistent with a flight to safety. With the recent European and Emerging Market turmoil we’re seeing huge demand for dollars as a good deal of foreign debt is dollar denominated.  The current surge in the dollar is a sign that there’s a flight to safety occurring and more turmoil in the financial markets than many might presume.

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18 Signs That The Global Economic Crisis Is Accelerating As We Enter H2 2014

A lot of people that I talk to these days want to know “when things are going to start happening”.  Well, there are certainly some perilous times on the horizon, but all you have to do is open up your eyes and look to see the global economic crisis unfolding.  As you will see below, even central bankers are issuing frightening warnings about “dangerous new asset bubbles” and even the World Bank is declaring that “now is the time to prepare” for the next crisis.  Most Americans tend to only care about what is happening in the United States, but the truth is that serious economic trouble is erupting in South America, all across Europe and in Asian powerhouses such as China and Japan.  And the endless conflicts in the Middle East could erupt into a major regional war at just about any time.  We live in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable, and people need to understand that the period of relative stability that we are enjoying right now is extremely vulnerable and will not last long.

The following are 18 signs that the global economic crisis is accelerating as we enter the last half of 2014…

#1 The Bank for International Settlements has issued a new report which warns that “dangerous new asset bubbles” are forming which could potentially lead to another major financial crisis.  Do the central bankers know something that we don’t, or are they just trying to place the blame on someone else for the giant mess that they have created?

#2 Argentina has missed a $539 million debt payment and is on the verge of its second major debt default in 13 years.

#3 Bulgaria is desperately trying to calm down a massive run on the banks that threatens of spiral out of control.

#4 Last month, household loans in the eurozone declined at the fastest rate ever recorded.  Why are European banks holding on to their money so tightly right now?

#5 The number of unemployed jobseekers in France has just soared to another brand new record high. (more…)

A memorable passage from Epictetus

EpictetusBe not deceived, every animal is attached to nothing so much as to its own interest. Whatever then seems to hinder his way to this, be it a brother or a father or a child, the object of his passion or his own lover, he hates him, guards against him, curses him. For his nature is to love nothing so much as his own interest; this is his father and brother and kinsfolk and country and god. At any rate, when the gods seem to hinder us in regard to this we revile even the gods and overthrow their statues and set fire to their temples, as Alexander ordered the shrines of Asclepius to be burnt when the object of his passion died. Therefore if interest, religion and honour, country, parents and friends are set in the same scale, then all are safe; but if interest is in one scale, and in the other friends and country and kindred and justice itself, all these are weighed down by interest and disappear. For the creature must needs incline to that side where ‘I’ and ‘mine’ are; if they are in the flesh, the ruling power must be there; if in the will, it must be there; if in external things, it must be there.

If then I identify myself with my will, then and only then shall I be a friend and son and father in the true sense. For this will be my interest—to guard my character for good faith, honour, forbearance, self-control, and service of others, to maintain my relations with others. But if I separate myself from what is noble, then Epicurus’ statement is confirmed, which declares that ‘there is no such thing as the noble or at best it is but the creature of opinion’.