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Recipe for catching a reversal:

recipesIngredients: For this recipe you will need one (1) well-known or “classic” technical chart pattern on a daily time frame, preferably near the high or low of the mid-term price range. When your pattern of choice has been observed, you will then need to collect at least two (2) or more instances of public expressions of sentiment which confirm the prognostication of said pattern: pre- or post-market media bytes, business news website headlines, confident/fearful declarations on your favorite trading forum, or any other variety of before-the-fact assumption.

Preparation: When the above ingredients have been secured, wait for a daily close which would confirm “ripeness” of the pattern. Next morning, enter a stop order at the confirmation price in the opposite direction of pattern breakout to initiate position. If stop is triggered, immediately enter protective stop at prior low/high.

Parboiling: If market moves quickly in your favor, take profits on at least a partial portion; mentally “set aside” closed profit for re-entry if market pulls back towards initial entry price with next few days. If pullback manages to hold above prior high/low, re-enter full position at your discretion.

Cooking: Set protective stop for entire position at breakeven and let sit undisturbed for a few days or more if possible.

Presentation: Dish is ready when “failure” point of pattern is breached; serve at market or with trailing stop, whichever you prefer.

Recipe for catching a reversal:

Ingredients: For this recipe you will need one (1) well-known or “classic” technical chart pattern on a daily time frame, preferably near the high or low of the mid-term price range. When your pattern of choice has been observed, you will then need to collect at least two (2) or more instances of public expressions of sentiment which confirm the prognostication of said pattern: pre- or post-market media bytes, business news website headlines, confident/fearful declarations on your favorite trading forum, or any other variety of before-the-fact assumption.

Preparation: When the above ingredients have been secured, wait for a daily close which would confirm “ripeness” of the pattern. Next morning, enter a stop order at the confirmation price in the opposite direction of pattern breakout to initiate position. If stop is triggered, immediately enter protective stop at prior low/high.

Parboiling: If market moves quickly in your favor, take profits on at least a partial portion; mentally “set aside” closed profit for re-entry if market pulls back towards initial entry price with next few days. If pullback manages to hold above prior high/low, re-enter full position at your discretion.

Cooking: Set protective stop for entire position at breakeven and let sit undisturbed for a few days or more if possible.

Presentation: Dish is ready when “failure” point of pattern is breached; serve at market or with trailing stop, whichever you prefer.

Trading Wisdom

One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.

Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs.

Traders would be wise to understand there are 3 directions a market can travel; up, down or sideways. As long as we trade stocks, this will be true – and just as valuable as Livermore’s seasoned trading friend’s advice was then it would be today.

Markets, like rivers, don’t change courses overnight – or even in a few days. It often takes many months if not years to properly establish a trend. Simply pull back any weekly chart over the past couple years and assess where the trend is going. If you aren’t quite sure, then more than likely cash remains the place for you.

Understand this basic, yet key, principle of trading, and you will already be well ahead of most.

Respect the Trend

One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.

Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs. (more…)

Learn from Turtle Trading

“Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.” Barry Le Platner

All beginning traders lack one key ingredient for success: experience.  Experience is simply exposure to a particular activity over an extended period of time.  Good judgment is a by-product of experience and is necessary for success in all areas of life, from driving, cooking, golf, to surgery, etc, as well as, you guessed it, stock and options trading.  We can sum it up as follows:

EXPERIENCE = TIME + SPECIFIC ACTIVITY = GOOD JUDGMENT

Unfortunately, very few beginning traders have enough “education” money to succeed at trading because good judgment requires that a person remain focused on a specific activity long enough to draw sound conclusions.  In other words, good judgment is based on trust in the specific activity without doubting its overall effectiveness.  (more…)

Respect the Trend

One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.

Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs. (more…)

Respect the Trend

One of my favorite trading tales involves a very wise, veteran trader who, when asked his thoughts on the market, would simply respond by saying “It’s a bull market,” or “It’s a bear market.” Younger traders simply seeking out a hot tip from the seasoned pro would often leave discouraged – or even annoyed, believing they were being fed a line. JL himself didn’t understand until years later the wisdom that was actually being dispensed with those words: The veteran was simply relaying the path of least resistance, or the trend for the general market, and therefore giving the trader an incredible edge in determining one of the many variables that makes up stock trading.

Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs.

Traders would be wise to understand there are 3 directions a market can travel; up, down or sideways. As long as we trade stocks, this will be true – and just as valuable as Livermore’s seasoned trading friend’s advice was then it would be today.

Markets, like rivers, don’t change courses overnight – or even in a few days. It often takes many months if not years to properly establish a trend. Simply pull back any weekly chart over the past couple years and assess where the trend is going. If you aren’t quite sure, then more than likely cash remains the place for you.

Understand this basic, yet key, principle of trading, and you will already be well ahead of most.

Respect the Trend

Traders should equate the general market to that of a big river with individuals stocks as floating logs. If ones objective was to ride in the general direction of the current, they would not stand on the bank looking for a log that was bucking that trend? Furthermore, even if they found one that temporarily headed in the wrong direction, more than likely it would only be a matter of time before the log reversed course and also headed in the way of all the other logs.

 

Traders would be wise to understand there are 3 directions a market can travel; up, down or sideways. As long as we trade stocks, this will be true – and just as valuable as Livermore’s seasoned trading friend’s advice was then it would be today.

Markets, like rivers, don’t change courses overnight – or even in a few days. It often takes many months if not years to properly establish a trend. Simply pull back any weekly chart over the past couple years and assess where the trend is going. If you aren’t quite sure, then more than likely cash remains the place for you.

Understand this basic, yet key, principle of trading, and you will already be well ahead of most.

Recipe for catching a reversal:

sexy-chef
Ingredients: For this recipe you will need one (1) well-known or “classic” technical chart pattern on a daily time frame, preferably near the high or low of the mid-term price range. When your pattern of choice has been observed, you will then need to collect at least two (2) or more instances of public expressions of sentiment which confirm the prognostication of said pattern: pre- or post-market media bytes, business news website headlines, confident/fearful declarations on your favorite trading forum, or any other variety of before-the-fact assumption.
Preparation: When the above ingredients have been secured, wait for a daily close which would confirm “ripeness” of the pattern. Next morning, enter a stop order at the confirmation price in the opposite direction of pattern breakout to initiate position. If stop is triggered, immediately enter protective stop at prior low/high.
Parboiling: If market moves quickly in your favor, take profits on at least a partial portion; mentally “set aside” closed profit for re-entry if market pulls back towards initial entry price with next few days. If pullback manages to hold above prior high/low, re-enter full position at your discretion. (more…)

Papillon teaches trading

I watched the film ‘Papillon’ a few days ago and enjoyed it very much. From memory, the film captures the sense of place, feeling of utter desperation, and cruelty of both the people and environment, found in the book on which it is based. It doesn’t follow the story to the letter – few films do – but this becomes a non-issue considering that many people question whether the author truly experienced all these adventures and hardships, or whether he ‘borrowed’ stories from other prisoners. Whatever the truth may be, I highly recommend reading the book and then watching the film.

In one scene, fellow inmate Louis Dega (played by Dustin Hoffman) is talking to Papillon (a role superbly executed by Steve McQueen) and makes a statement of the ‘somebody once said’ variety, that really struck home:

“A temptation resisted is a true measure of character.”

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