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Six EU states to scrap bans on short-selling after today

Austria, Belgium, France, Greece, Italy and Spain decide to scrap bans on short-selling stocks that began back in March

Besides Italy, the other five EU states will see the bans expire at 2159 GMT today and they have decided against renewing it. For some context, the bans were introduced back in March due to “excessive market volatility” and were extended back in April here.

As the other market watchdogs choose not to extend the bans, Italy is following to cut short their short-selling ban – supposed to be until 18 June – to align itself with the others.

Sell Buy

Japan GDP for Q1, preliminary: GDP -0.9% sa q/q (vs. expected -1.1%)

Japanese economic growth in the January to March quarter of 2020 – this the preliminary release

GDP -0.9% sa q/q
  • expected -1.1%, prior -1.8%

GDP -3.4% annualised sa q/q

  • expected -4.5%, prior -7.1%
GDP -0.8% nominal q/q
  • expected -1.3%, prior -1.5%

GDP deflator (an inflation indication) %

  • expected 0.7%, prior 1.2%

Private consumption -0.7%

  • expected -1.6% q/q, prior -2.8%

Business spending -0.5% (capex)

  • expected -1.5%, prior -4.6%
More:
  • 2 consecutive quarters of contraction for the Japanese economy, the economy moves into recession for the first time since H2 of 2015
  • Q1 exports had their biggest drop q/q since the 2nd quarter of 2011, down 6%
January and February were stable to slowly picking up for Japan but the outbreak in  March hit economic growth. The April to June quarter is likely to be even worse, with a more prolonged impact. Restrictions were imposed by the April 7 national emergency declaration shutting many restaurants, large retail outlets, hotels and more. The restrictions were partially lifted on May 14, but are still in place for Tokyo and Osaka, the two largest cities in Japan.
Yen doing little.

Bank of England looking more urgently at negative rates

The Bank of England is looking more urgently at options such as negative interest rates and buying riskier assets to prop up the country’s economy as it slides into a deep coronavirus slump, the BoE’s chief economist was quoted as saying.

The Telegraph newspaper said the economist, Andy Haldane, refused to rule out the possibility of taking interest rates below zero and buying lower-quality financial assets under the central bank’s bond-buying programme.

“The economy is weaker than a year ago and we are now at the effective lower bound, so in that sense it’s something we’ll need to look at – are looking at – with somewhat greater immediacy,” he said in an interview. “How could we not be?”

Top BoE officials have previously expressed objections to taking rates below zero – as the central banks of the euro zone and Japan have done – because it might hinder the ability of banks in Britain to lend and hurt rather than help the economy.

But with the BoE’s benchmark at an all-time low of 0.1% and Britain facing potentially its sharpest economic downturn in 300 years, talk of cutting rates to below zero has resurfaced.

Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday the BoE was not contemplating negative rates, but he declined to rule it out altogether.

Fitch affirms France rating at ‘AA’ but lower its outlook from stable to negative

Fitch Ratings has affirmed France at ‘AA’ but cites (amongst other factors) the substantial worsening in public finances and economic activity expected this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic for its lowering of the outlook to negative.

  • The combination of much reduced economic activity due to containment measures introduced from March and government policies to support the economy in the period of enforced reduced activity will sharply increase government borrowing and indebtedness. This deterioration of France’s public finance metrics will happen in the context of already high debt levels in comparison with rating peers, limited progress in fiscal consolidation since the global financial crisis, and moderate real economic growth.
That’s a summary, the report also notes:
  • France’s ratings are underpinned by a large, wealthy and diversified economy, strong and effective civil and social institutions and a track record of macro-financial stability. Public finances, and particularly the high level of government debt, remain a rating weakness relative to the ‘AA’ category. 
More at that link above
Fitch Ratings has affirmed France at 'AA' but cites (amongst other factors) the substantial worsening in public finances and economic activity expected this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic for its lowering of the outlook to negative.

The Federal Reserve flags risks and twice–yearly report on financial hazards

Federal Reserve publishes its 2020 financial stability report

  • warns financial sector vulnerabilities likely to be significant in near-term
  • pandemic strains on household and business balance sheets likely created fragility’s that last for some time
  • warns banking sector may experience strains as a result of economic and financial stocks
  • Banks so far have been able to meet demand for credit line drawdowns while adding to loan-loss reserves
  • some hedge funds have been severely affected by large asset price declines and volatility, contributing to market dislocations
  • primary dealers struggled to provide intermediation services at peak stress periods
  • asset prices subject to significant declines if pandemic worsens
  • funding markets were less fragile than in financial crisis but still suffered strains required Fed intervention
  • high levels of business debt likely to make economic fallout from pandemic worse
  • pandemic poses severe risk to businesses of all sizes and millions of households
  • pandemic to cause a sharp rise in defaults on household debt
  • market debt for long dated treasuries and treasury futures in March fell to record low and has shown only modest improvements since
  • mortgage servicers under strain from forbearance could lead to less mortgage credit and some failures in the future
  • further dollar appreciation could put additional strains on US firms that rely on exports and supply chains in their operations
  • Covid 19 risks, a no deal Brexit, still poses risks to European and US financial systems

Stocks slide and tumble into the close. Major indices close near session lows.

NASDAQ and S&P index fall over -2%

The major stock indices tumbled lower into the close, with the NASDAQ and S&P index both closing over -2% on the day. The final numbers for the major indices are showing:
  • S&P index -60.2 points or -2.05% at 2870.12
  • NASDAQ index -189.79 points or -2.06% at 9002.55
  • Dow -457.21 points or -1.89% at 23764.75
At the highs the:
  • S&P index is up 0.53%
  • NASDAQ index is up 0.64%
  • Dow industrial average is up 0.66%

The small-cap Russell 2000 index fell by -2.85% after being up as high as +0.43%.

The Canadian TSX/S&P index fell -1.23%
European shares ended mixed with Germany, France, and Portugal moving lower while UK, Spain, and Italy rose.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell will speak this week – to push back on negative interest rates

Fed’s Powell is to speak at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event (webinar)

  • He is billed to discuss his economic outlook, but is also to expected to address monetary policy (more on this below)
  • text with a Q&A to follow
  • Wednesday 13 May at 1300GMT
In brief – while there has been intense speculation about the Fed moving to negative interest rates, it seems likely Powell will push back on this. Other Fed officials who have spoken recently have all expressed caution on moving to negative rates but it may be time to wheel out Powell to more effectively quash the chatter.
Some of the recent remarks on likely negative rates have come from big hitters in the industry, while market pricing has also indicated sub-zero rates.
  • Scott Minerd, global chief investment officer of Guggenheim Partners said on Friday he expects rates below zero ‘soon’ – he cited declining Treasury yields
  • Other market movements are also reflecting expectations –  eg. falling LIBOR,
  • Jeffrey Gundlach, co-founder of DoubleLine Capital tweeted last week on mounting pressure on fed funds to go negative and said “fatal” consequences may have brought the expectations to the fore (more here: Jeffrey Gundlach says pressure building on Fed funds to go negative)
Fed's Powell is to speak at a Peterson Institute for International Economics event (webinar) 

EU could open legal case against Germany over ECB bond-purchases ruling

Last week Germany’s constitutional court issued a decision ruling that the European Central Bank had overstepped its mandate with QE bond purchases,

  • German court in Karlsruhe gave the ECB 3 months to justify its euro zone QE stimulus programme, or the Bundesbank might have to step aside from it
Responding, the European Union’s highest court (which had previously permitted the ECB QE programme) and the European Commission said that EU law holds precedence over national regulations
Further now, on Sunday, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU executive might end up opening a legal case against Germany.
  • “We are now analysing the ruling of the German Constitutional Court in detail. And we will look into possible next steps, which may include the option of infringement proceedings,”
These wort of legal wranglings are not a positive for EU coherency and stability. Nor are they positive for the EUR. Watching for developments on this front – both legal/political and for ECB actions ahead.
 Last week Germany's constitutional court issued a decision ruling that the European Central Bank had overstepped its mandate with QE bond purchases,

Paul Tudor Jones is one of the great macro traders of all time but he’s ‘a slave to the tape’

How does Paul Tudor Jones see the world now?

Paul Tudor Jones is one of the great investors of all time and he’s renowned for macro calls. His latest market outlook highlights the coming waves of direct debt monetization that will reshape the economies and financial markets of the world.
“There will be many assets that will move as a result of this money creation. So what is an investor to do? Traditional hedges like gold have done well, and we expect investors to continue to seek refuge in this safe asset. One thing I have learned over time is the best thing to do is let market price action guide your decision-making and then try to understand the fundamentals as they become more evident and comprehensible,” he writes in a note with Lorenzo Giorgianni.
That’s an odd thing for one of the great macro traders of all time to say, but if you look back over his (rare) public comments, it’s a familiar theme. Here’s what he said back in 2009:

(more…)

S&P and Dow close at session lows

NASDAQ are on the day but off the session highs

the S&P index and Dow industrial average are both closing at/near session lows. The NASDAQ index remained higher on the day but well off its high levels.
The final numbers are showing
  • S&P index -20.02 points or -0.70% at 2848.42. The high percentage was 0.79%
  • NASDAQ index +45.266 points or +0.51% at 8854.38. The high percentage was 1.41%.
  • Dow industrial average -218.45 points or -0.91% at 23664.64.  The high percentage was up 0.72%.
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