rss

Broad indices squeeze higher as sanctions on China are less than feared

Dow has best performance in 7 weeks. Second straight week of gains for the major indices

The major US stocks and see some squeeze higher into the close as sanctions on China are less than feared.  The NASDAQ led the way with a gain of 1.29%. The Dow ended lower as investors shifted back to the technology growth stocks.
The final numbers are showing
  • S&P index up 14.58 points or 0.48% at 3044.31
  • NASDAQ index rose by 120.88 points or 1.29% at 9489.87
  • Dow industrial average fell by 17.53 points or -0.07% to 25383.13.
In Europe today the story was different with most the indices closing near their session lows.
Dow has best performance in 7 weeks. Second straight week of gains for the major indices_For the trading week, the Dow industrial average led the way with a 3.71% gain in the US. The NASDAQ index lagged as earlier in the week the flow funds were into the more beaten down industrial stocks. Nevertheless the NASDAQ gained by 2.21%. The S&P index rose by 3.25%.
In Europe, the France’s CAC rose by 5.64% and the Spain’s Ibex nearly rose 6%. The UK FTSE was the under performer with a 1.02% gain.

G20 says 36 of 77 eligible countries have applied for debt relief

Group of 20 major economies offered a suspension of official bilateral debt payments to77 eligible countries

  • 36 of the 77 have applied
The offer is to help countries combat the coronavirus pandemic and its economic impact.Saudi G20 secretariat said the debt relief initiative approved in April could provide immediate liquidity of $14 billion as more countries participated and that amount could increase significantly if additional creditors, including multilateral development banks and private-sector creditors, joined the initiative.
(info via Reuters )
Group of 20 major economies offered a suspension of official bilateral debt payments to77 eligible countries

Month-end rebalancing points to strong USD-selling – Citi

It’s almost June

It's almost June
Citi’s month-end rebalancing model flags a strong USD sell signal against EUR and GBP at this month-end
“Our Asset Rebalancing Model notes a rotation from equities into bonds at May month end. The signal is moderately strong coming in at -1.4/+1.3 historical standard deviations (hist. std. dev.) for equities and bonds respectively.
The FX impact notes selling of USD against EUR and GBP at month end,” Citi notes.
Typically, month-end FX re-balancing flows is felt most going into the 4pm London fix on the last trading day of the month.

China says the US bill to delist Chinese companies is “directly targeting China”

Comments regarding the US’ Holding Foreign Companies Act from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) weekend statement

  • the US bill that aims to delist Chinese companies from the US stock exchange is “directly targeting China”
  • is grounded in political rather than professional motives
  • would force Chinese companies to adhere to US securities law and could potentially delist Chinese companies if passed, while some of its content explicitly targets China.
Another indication of rising US/China strains. As these increase they tend to be a negative input for financial market risk assets (and FX) and supportive of safe haven alternatives. Add it the growing list:
  • coronavirus origin and spread
  • trade
  • tension over new rules from Beijing to be imposed on Hong Kong
  • Taiwan

EXPLANATIONS OF COMMON TRADING PROBLEMS

Why Traders Naturally Cannot Follow Their Trading Plan

  • The brain automatically engages “distinct mechanisms” to handle these two scenarios differently: (i) risky situation where the probabilities are known, and (ii) ambiguous situation with incomplete information where historical probabilities provide only a clue. For the latter, there will be a “uncertainty circuit” that will raise a red flag to say “more information needed”.
  • This results in traders trying to do exactly what they planned while their brain fights them to find more information or to scramble in the face of a clear, but maybe only subconsciously perceived, threat.
  • Just because you decided on taking a long or short trading position, your “brain on uncertainty” doesn’t change how it goes about making judgment calls in uncertain circumstances. The basic process steps through the context-belief-perception cycle because it can’t help it.
  • Uncertainty means — at least to part of your neural and white matter networks — that a black bear, ready to eat all your apples (and you with them) could be just around the corner. The more uncertainty, the more you can realize how much you are relying on contextual clues in order to make sense of the situation.

Reminder: The BOJ will be holding an emergency policy meeting tomorrow

The meeting will begin at 0000 GMT

BOJ
  • BOJ calls for unscheduled monetary policy meeting on 22 May
The central bank is likely to announce a new scheme to facilitate funding for banks to extend to small businesses that have been hit by the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak.
In short, it is yet another measure to bolster liquidity conditions in the financial system, in order to ease corporate funding strains.
I don’t believe that the Kuroda & co. will offer any surprises beyond that, so expect other monetary policy tools to remain unchanged. They will likely just use the meeting to communicate the details of the new scheme if anything else.
As for the impact on the yen, I would argue that this should not play too significant of a role as the central bank has played it down and Kuroda has made mention to this in the past.
For USD/JPY, continue to keep an eye on the elusive 108.00 handle in any case.

S&P and NASDAQ erase yesterday’s losses

The last 4 of 5 days have been to the upside for the major indices

The major indices are closing with solid gains on the day.  The NASDAQ index closed at the highest level since February 21. Facebook and Amazon closed at record high levels.   The S&P index is closing higher but after trading above its 100 day moving average at 2975.37, the pair has rotated lower and will close below its 100 day moving average at 2971.61.  So that is a bit of a disappointment

The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P rose 48.67 points or 1.67% to 2971.61. The high reached 2980.29. The low extended to 2953.63.
  • The NASDAQ index rose by 190.67 points or 2.08% to 9375.77. The high price extended to 9392.816. The low price fell 29304.199
  • The Dow industrial average rose by 369.04 points or 1.52% to 24575.90. The high price extended to 24649.48. The low fell to 24455.94
some big gainers today included:
  • Twitter, +7.83%
  • Alcoa, +7.88%
  • Deutsche Bank, +6.23%
  • Facebook, +6.04%
  • Wynn Resorts +5.88%
  • Slack, plus a 5.7%
  • Southwest air, +5.27%
  • United Airlines, +5.24%
  • Disney, +4.86%
  • Intel, +4.69%
  • Morgan Stanley, +4.4%
losers today included:
  • Lockheed Martin, -2.46%
  • Northrop Grumman, -1.94%
  • Chewy, -1.62%
  • J&J, -0.9%
  • Merck and Company, -0.86%
  • United health, -0.42%
  • Verizon, -0.22%
  • Pfizer, -0.13%
  • Home Depot, -0.03%

Today’s 20-year Treasury auction will be the first since 1986

Interesting day in the bond market

The Treasury will jump into 20-year sales today for the first time in 34 years.
The initial auction of $20 billion is a relatively large one and is a reminder of how much debt the US is piling on. The notes are trading at 1.230%-1.220% on the bid/ask in the when-issued market. That puts them much closer to 30-year bonds (1.44%) than 10-years (0.71%).
“An auction concession of some sort is warranted; although we anticipate the new issue will be well absorbed even if it comes at a modest discount,” writes Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO.
The broader bond market is reluctant to send and clear signals at the moment. 10s have been in a tight range for six weeks now and it’s tough to envision a clear break on either side because you have inflation keeping yields up and the Fed keeping them down.
Interesting day in the bond market

US major indices snatch defeat from the jaws of victory

Major indices move lower on the day after Moderna results questioned by the scientific community

The US stocks were trading near session highs heading into the last hour of trading
The S&P index was near 2964.21. The NASDAQ index was making new session highs at 9317.25. Then there was a report from STAT that questioned the results from the Moderna coronavirus test results.  Stocks moved lower, and the major indices snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Suddenly there is a look or feel as good as it used to.
A final look at the numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -30.97 points or -1.05% at 2922.94
  • NASDAQ index -49.72 points or -0.54% at 9185.10
  • Dow -390.51 points or -1.59% at 24206.84.

Some losers today included:

  • Wells Fargo, -5.67%
  • FedEx -3.75%
  • Boeing -3.63%
  • Charles Schwab -3.57%
  • Gilead -3.28%
  • Procter & Gamble, -3.25%
  • Chevron -3.24%
  • Bank of America -3.14%
  • Exxon Mobil, -3.11%
  • PNC financial -2.88%
  • Citigroup, -2.7%
  • Home Depot, -2.61%
Some winners today included:
  • Beyond meat, +4.62%
  • square, +3.39%
  • Southwest Airlines, +2.29%
  • Slack, +2.28%
  • Facebook, +1.76%
  • AMD, +1.5 and present
  • Adobe, +1.22%
  • Chipotle, +1.09%
  • AliBaba, +0.94%
Walmart which traded as high as 131.99 1 better earnings and revenue before the opening, is closing down at 124.87. That is down -2.19%.

China confirms 80% tariff on Australian barley

The news that China was to impose an import tariff on Australian barley broke back on May 10

The tariff imposition has been announced in a statement from China’s Ministry of Commerce
  • anti-dumping tariff would be 73.6 per cent
  • while the anti-subsidy tariff would be 6.9 per cent
  • will remain in place for five years
This from China is in retaliation for Australia leading calls for an investigation into the origin and spread of COVID-19. China also halted imports of Australian beef last week as part of their response.
 The news that China was to impose an import tariff on Australian barley broke back on May 10