China Securities Journal reports PBOC may conduct an MLF this week at a lower rate

MLF is medium term lending facility, 6 to 12 month loans to banks

Lowering the rate would be another effort at stimulus from the  People’s Bank of China in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak. There is MLF maturing this week.

European shares close mostly lower but off lows for the day

German DAX, -0.16%, France’s CAC, -0.36%

The major European indices are now close for the day and indices are closing lower but well off the lows for the day. The provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX, -0.16%. It was as low as -1.26%
  • France’s CAC, -0.36%. It was as low as -1.25%
  • UKs FTSE 100, -1.25%. It was as low as -1.69%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.16%. It was as low as -1.47%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB bucked the trend and rose by 0.19% That is up from a low of -1.10%.
In debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mostly lower with the exception of the UK. The ranges and changes are currently showing:
The European 10 year yields are mostly lowerIn other markets:
  • Spot gold is trading up $10.07 or 0.64% $1576.09
  • WTI crude oil is up $0.27 or 0.53% of $51.45
in the US equity market, the earlier declines in stocks have been mostly raised in the broad indices at least. The Dow is still negative:
  • S&P index is down -1.5 points or -0.5% at 3378. The hi reached 3380.36
  • NASDAQ index is unchanged at 9725.40. The high reached 9732.87.
  • Dow is down 78 points or -0.27% at 29471.4.
In the US debt market, yields are off lows but still remain modestly lower on the day.
US yields are still lower but off the lowest levels
The ranking of the major currencies shows the GBP is the strongest and the NZD is the weakest.

How many different ways can you say “Record close for US indices”?

Major US indices close at records and near highs for the day

How many different ways can you say “Record close for the US indices?”  It is like a broken record.

The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +21.64 points or 0.64% at 3379.40
  • NASDAQ index +87.01 points was +0.90% at 9725.96
  • Dow +275.08 points or 0.94% at 29551.42

Some of the oversize winners today include:

  • First solar, +4.86%
  • United health, +4.36%
  • Micron, +3.55%
  • AliBaba, +3.33%
  • Daimler, +3.19%
  • Twitter, +3.18%
  • Walgreen boots, +2.83%
  • Caterpillar, +2.55%
  • Apple, +2.3%
  • United Airlines, +2.10%
  • Qualcomm, +1.93%
Some of the losers today include:
  • Lyft, -10.24%
  • Beyond Meats, -1.99%
  • Phillip Morris, -1.75%
  • Gilead, -1.2%
  • Stryker, -0.93%
  • Pfizer, -0.92%
  • Amgen, -0.83%
  • Tesla, -0.82%
  • Lockheed Martin, -0.78%
  • Procter & Gamble, -0.60%
  • J&J, -0.57%

The NASDAQ and S&P close at record levels

Give up most of gains. Dow ends unchanged

The NASDAQ and S&P index are closing at record levels. That is the good news. The bad news is the major indices are closing well off the highs for the day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index is closing up 5.68 points or 0.17% at 3357.77. The high reached 3375.63. The low extended to 3352.72
  • The the NASDAQ index is closing up 10.552 points or 0.11% at 9638.94. The high reached 9714.738. The low extended to 9617.211
  • The Dow fell -0.48 points to 29276.34. The high reached 29415.39. The low extended to 29210.47.
At the highs, the S&P index was up 0.70%, the NASDAQ index was up 0.90% and the Dow industrial average was up 0.47%.

Coronavirus FX implications: The good, the static, & the bad

What to watch for in the outbreak

 3 scenarios for Coronavirus and its FX implications.

“Coronavirus was unknown to asset markets two months ago, may disappear as a factor within a few months, but may also evolve into a major global supply shock if it spreads and intensifies. We lay out the alternative scenarios on how the disease could evolve and what the short-medium term FX responses might be. Our subjective assessment is that current asset market pricing probably lies somewhat closer to the static than good scenarios,” SC notes.

“FX winners (W) and losers (L) under our good scenario where the disease abates:



FX winners (W) and losers (L) under our static scenario of neither major intensification nor elimination:



FX winners (W) and losers (L) under our bad scenario where the disease intensifies and spreads:



S&P and NASDAQ closed at record levels. Major indices go out near highs

NASDAQ index rises by 1.13%

The NASDAQ juggernaut has continued with the index rising by 107.87 points or 1.13% on the day. For the year the index is now up over 7%.
Both the NASDAQ and the S&P closed at record levels today. The Dow industrial average is still short of its all-time record.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +24.38 points or 0.73% at 3352.09. The high price reached 3352.26. The low extended to 3317.77.
  • NASDAQ index +107.87 points or 1.13% at 9628.39. The high price reached at 9628.66. The low extended to 9493.62.
  • Dow industrial average +174.31 points or 0.60% at 29276.82. The high price reached 29215.00. The low extended to 28850.00

Some of the big winners on the day included:

  • Slack, +15.44%.
  • Lyft, +7.41%
  • AMD, +5.09%
  • Nvidia, +4.51%
  • Chipotle, +3.09%
  • Tesla, +3.06%
  • Amazon, +2.63%
  • Microsoft, +2.59%
  • Boeing, +2.35%
  • Alphabet, +2.00%
  • Cisco, +1.90%
  • General Motors, +1.84%
  • Tencent, +1.8%
  • Square, +1.7%
  • Visa, +1.64%
  • Home Depot, +1.39%
Some of the underperformers during today’s trading day include:
  • Twitter, -2.89%
  • Exxon Mobil, -2.47%
  • DuPont, -1.48%
  • Charles Schwab, -1.14%
  • Walmart, -1.03%
  • Deutsche Bank, -0.96%
  • United health, -0.76%
  • Pfizer, -0.63%
  • Emerson, -0.52%
  • AliBaba, -0.38%

EUR/CHF threatens a three-year low as some risk aversion creeps in

The euro is soft on all fronts

The euro is the laggard today as the pain trade continues for euro bulls.
EUR/CHF is no exception as the pair threatens the low of the year at 1.0663. We’re just 5 pips from there now and if that breaks, the next big support level is the 2017 low of 1.0632.
The euro is soft on all fronts

More risk aversion is creeping in today as the minutes tick by. Stocks in the US are holding up but Treasury yields are sliding and gold is climbing.

Fed: Downside risks eased in late 2019 but virus is a new threat

Comments in the semi-annual monetary policy

  • US economy grew moderately last year
  • Labor market strengthened further and inflation continued to run below target
  • Probability of recession in the next year has ‘fallen noticeably’ in recent months
  • Downside risks seem to have receded in late 2019 due to decrease in trade tensions
  • Global slowdown in manufacturing and trade appears to be nearing an end while consumer spending and services activities continue to hold up
  • Possible virus spillovers present a new risk
  • Asset valuations and business debt are elevated; leverage in the financial sector appears low by historical norms
  • Fragilities in the corporate and financial sector in China are a risk
  • Market conditions were quite calm around year end after added liquidity
There’s nothing groundbreaking here.

Treasury yields turn flat across the curve, risk currencies pare gains

10-year Treasury yields are now flat on the session


The early trading in the bond market is hinting at some indecision about the risk mood. Treasury yields turned flatter about two hours ago before recovering some poise and is now back to flat levels again on the session.
As a result, USD/JPY has pared gains to 109.81 currently and we are seeing a similar story for the aussie as AUD/USD falls to a session low of 0.6743 after having traded around 0.67455-65 earlier in the day – just take note AUD/JPY is at key resistance levels as well.
European equities have pared back some of its earlier gains too but are still keeping higher in trading so far. This may yet lead to some mixed tones between stocks and bonds again but just be mindful of the market saying that “the bond market is always right”.

US Indices add to their gains. Nasdaq/S&P close at record levels

S&P just misses making a new all time intraday high today (short by $0.19)

The US stocks are closing up for the 3rd day in a row.
The NASDAQ index is closing at a session high and reached an intraday all-time high of 9574.936.
The S&P index reached a high price of 3337.58. That was just short of the all-time high price of 3337.77. So it was just short of that level. However, it is closing at an all-time record high taking out the previous high from January 17 at 3329.62.
The Dow is still below its all-time high, but it was the biggest mover today.
The levels at the close are showing:
  • S&P index +37.13 points or 1.13% at 3334.71
  • Nasdaq index +40.71 points or 0.43% at 9508.68
  • Dow up 483.09 points or 1.68% at 29290.73
Big winners for the day included:
  • Chubb, +7.06% the
  • Unitedhealth, +5.31%
  • IBM, +4.85%
  • Exxon Mobil, +4.64%
  • Emerson, +3.85%
  • United Airlines, +3.7%
  • Boeing, +3.66%
  • Bank of America, +3.24%
  • 3M, +3.21%
  • Chevron, +3.21%
  • travelers, +3.14%
  • Citigroup, +3.08%
  • Caterpillar, +2.89%
  • Intel, +2.89%
  • DuPont, +2.64%
  • Charles Schwab, +2.48%
  • General Dynamics, +2.47%
Losers today the included:
  • Tesla, -17.04%
  • Ford Motor, -9.54%
  • Lyft, -3.82%
  • Chipotle, -3.5%
  • Square, -3.07%
  • Walt Disney, -2.35%
  • Gilead, -2.28%
  • Twitter, -1.77%
  • Chewy, -1.65%
  • AliBaba, -1.21%
  • Starbucks, -0.93%
  • Amazon, -0.52%
  • Tencent, -0.45%