Archives of “Economy” tag

rss

Markets and the Pathogen in the Week Ahead

  
Analysis, Forex
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The infectious and mortality rates of the new coronavirus have become the main force driving the pendulum of investor sentiment toward fear. The move is all the more dramatic as the investors had been positioned for a continuation of the historic bull market in equities and eager to take on new risks.

The coronavirus has surpassed the earlier precedents of SARS (2003) and the Swine Flu (2009). The World Health Organization declared an international health emergency, which will free up resources and boost efforts to contain the pathogen. It took roughly 20 months to devise a vaccine for SARS, and it is estimated that a vaccine is possible within a month or so now to begin the testing process. Although China is expected to return from the extended Lunar New Year on February 2, more than a dozen provinces and cities will be closed several days longer, which ballpark estimates suggest are responsible for a little more than 2/3 of GDP and 3/4 of exports. Supply-chain and business disruptions will likely last longer still.

Investors fear that the health crisis will turn into an economic crisis. Although President Xi is understood to be the strongest Chinese leader in a generation, the challenges that China faces are immense: US rivalry and trade conflict, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and a highly leveraged domestic economy underpinned by a deteriorating demographics. China recently reported its birthrate fell to a record last year. Still, some argue that the situation is even more dire as the official figures exaggerate both the population and the birth rate. More monetary and fiscal stimulus is expected to be delivered to cushion the impact. Some forecasts show the Chinese economy slowing to around 4.5% in Q1 20 from 6.0% in Q4 19.

Since the onshore yuan (CNY) stopped trading for the holiday, the dollar appreciated by a net of a little less than 1% against the offshore yuan (CNH). A catch-up move of roughly the same magnitude would bring the greenback toward CNY7.0. While the last time the dollar rose through that threshold, the US accused China of currency manipulation, this time is considerably different. Moreover, of all times, this is the time when China could likely get away with manipulation if it wanted. It is not just because of the macro shock, but also because the US has played the card once and relatively quickly reversed itself. (more…)

US major indices close at session highs. Reverse near 1% declines

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Up and down session but by the end, the bulls prevail

The major US indices are ending the day near session highs and higher on the day. It took nearly all day to get back in the black. At the lows, the S&P index was down -0.93% the low, the NASDAQ index was down -0.97%, and the Dow industrial average was down -0.85%.
At the close, the final numbers show:
  • S&P index it is closing up 10.17 points or 0.31% at 3283.57
  • NASDAQ index is closing up 23.77 points or 0.26% at 9298.93
  • Dow industrial average it is closing up 123.8 points or 0.43% at 28858.25

The European markets did not fare as well. The German DAX fell by -1.41%. The France’s CAC fell by 1.4%.

Below are the percentage ranges for the major European and US indices along with the closing percentage change levels.
Up and down session but by the end, the bulls prevail_

Key takeaways from the BOE policy statement today

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Where does the pound go from here?

The most significant change in the statement is the forward guidance. Let’s take a look at the changes as per below.

December policy statement:

“Monetary policy could respond in either direction to changes in the economic outlook in order to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target. The Committee will, among other factors, continue to monitor closely the responses of companies and households to Brexit developments as well as the prospects for a recovery in global growth. If global growth fails to stabilise or if Brexit uncertainties remain entrenched, monetary policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery in UK GDP growth and inflation. Further ahead, provided these risks do not materialise and the economy recovers broadly in line with the MPC’s latest projections, some modest tightening of policy, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, may be needed to maintain inflation sustainably at the target.”

January policy statement:

“Monetary policy will be set to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target. Policy may need to reinforce the expected recovery in UK GDP growth should the more positive signals from recent indicators of global and domestic activity not be sustained or should indicators of domestic prices remain relatively weak. Further ahead, if the economy recovers broadly in line with the MPC’s latest projections, some modest tightening of policy may be needed to maintain inflation sustainably at the target.”

I’ve marked in bold the key changes. So, what are they saying?

(more…)

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 1.72% at 22,977.75

  
Analysis, Global Indices
#  #  #  #

The Nikkei falls back below the 23,000 mark

Nikkei 30-01

Fears surrounding the coronavirus outbreak continue to reverberate across markets and risk trades are largely suffering as a result. The fact that Facebook earnings wasn’t good enough – slower growth and profits guidance – only adds oil to the risk-off fire today.

US futures are down by 0.5% while Treasury yields are marked lower across the board following a sharp drop yesterday. 10-year yields are now at 1.568%, down by 1.5 bps.
As a result of the softer risk mood, USD/JPY is sitting around 108.92 currently – with focus turning to the 100-day moving average @ 108.75 once again.

Here are all the changes in the FOMC statement (blink and you’ll miss it)

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

This is how the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee changed in January from December.

Sheesh. Not much. What there is is slightly more dovish (but its a bit of a hair-split isn’t it?)
This is how the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee changed in January from December. 

Fed Powell press conference highlights

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Feds Powell conducts press conference after January 2020 interest rate decision

Fed's Powell
  • Fed wants to avoid misinterpretation with inflation wording
  • Not comfortable with inflation persistently under 2%
  • Want to signal not comfortable with prices below goal
  • We expect Bill purchases to make reserves ample in 2nd quarter
  • Fed will know when adjustments have run course when reserves are durably at a sustainable level
  • At some point the Fed will raise minimum bid rate on repos
  • reserve levels will have to be at a level high enough to remain ample. 1.5 trillion will be the bottom end of the range
  • he expects reserve fluctuation particularly around tax season
  • Fed will provide more details and will keep the process a smooth one
  • Fed’s attention is just to raise the level of reserves. That is our sole intention
  • Asked if Bill buying is QE , he says many things affect financial markets.
  • Most forecasts underestimated labor participation gains
  • Labor market continues to perform well
  • Labor wages have moved from about 2% to 3% currently
  • It is a bit surprising that wages haven’t risen more given such low unemployment

Market reaction:

  • Gold has moved to new session highs at $1575.84
  • US rates have moved lower with the 10 year falling to 1.5942%
  • NASDAQ index up 47 points at 9316.69. S&P index up 11.3 points (was up 13 points)
  • EURUSUD moved to New York session highs at 1.1015.  A trendline on the hourly chart is just ahead at 1.1017 and the falling 100 hour moving average is 1.10232
EURUSD looks to test topside trend line and falling 100 hour moving average

  • USDCHF is moving toward session lows.  Markets trading at 0.9728 from 0.9743. USDJPY moves lower as well (109.10 currently from 109.20).
More from Powell presser:
  • virus is a serious issue, significant human suffering
  • coronavirus likely to disrupt activity in China, maybe world
  • very uncertain about how far virus will spread
  • Fed’s carefully monitoring situation around coronavirus
  • sees grounds for cautious optimism on global economy
  • supportive financial conditions, trade tensions easing and lower odds of hard Brexit all contributed to more positive outlook
  • We will continue to adjust IOER as appropriate to help move the effective rate for the middle of the range
  • there is no current urgency to make decision on standing repo facility
  • over the long term it is possible there is a financial stability risk from climate change
  • in the very early stages of the impact from climate change
On China and USMCA
  • Phase 1 deal with China and USMCA is without question positive and should support the economy over time
  • Trade policies uncertainty remains elevated
  • Still have 2 or 3 active trade discussions going on at the moment
  • There is a wait and see attitude for businesses on trade
  • We need to be patient on trade deals economic impact
  • Does not yet see a decisive recovery for manufacturing
There is some modest moves to the downside in stocks and the USD has tilted to the downside (3:04 PM ET):
  • S&P index up 6.5 points
  • NASDAQ index up 32 points
  • The USD has ticked lower through the presser on a modest basis.
More from the Powell press conference:
  • We don’t think there is imminent risk on Chinese debt
  • Fed sees asset value valuations somewhat elevated, but not extreme
  • household that is in a good place
  • business debt is rising but not threatening stability
  • vulnerabilities to financial stability is moderate overall
Press conference ends at 3:23 PM ET.

“Global standard” gauge of currency misalignment has GBP 22% undervalued against the USD

  
Analysis, Forex
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Here’s a bit of (useful) fun, The Economist’s “Big Mac index” to gauge whether currencies are at their “correct” level against the US dollar.

Its based on the currency valuation model of purchasing-power parity (PPP), i.e. that “in the long run exchange rates should move towards the rate that would equalise the prices of an identical basket of goods and services (in this case, a burger) in any two countries”.Says the magazine (link here, may be gated(

  • Burgernomics was never intended as a precise gauge of currency misalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory more digestible. Yet the Big Mac index has become a global standard, included in several economic textbooks and the subject of dozens of academic studies. 

Some of the results (more at that link)

The Economist's "Big Mac index" currencies US dollar

Dow and S&P have the worst day since October

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

NASDAQ has its worst day since August.   Fears about coronavirus send major indices lower.

Major indices are ending the session sharply lower. The Dow and S&P had their worst day since October. The NASDAQ index fared even worse with its worst day since August.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index -51.89 points or -1.57% to 3243.57. The high reached 3258.85. The low extended to 3234.50 (early in the session).
  • NASDAQ index fell -175.60 points or -1.89% to 9139.30. The high reached 9185.449. The low extended to 9088.043.
  • Dow industrial average fell -453.93 points or -1.57% to 28535.80.  The high reached 28671.79. The low extended to 28440.47.
Some losers on the day included:
  • United Airlines, -5.26%
  • Schlumberger, -5.06%
  • Broadcom, -4.69%
  • Nvidia, -4.12%
  • Intel, -4.07%
  • Micron, -4.04%
  • Alibaba, -3.78%
  • Intuitive Surgical, -3.65%
  • FedEx -3.65%
  • DuPont, +3.4%
  • Delta airlines -3.38%
  • Caterpillar, -3.35%
  • American Express, -3.32%
  • Disney, -3.05%
  • Apple -2.93%
Winners in a huge down day included:
  • Beyond Meat, +4.43%
  • Chewy, +1.79%
  • target, +1.29%
  • Walmart, +1.28%
  • Gilead, +1.12%
  • Pfizer, +0.8%
  • Procter & Gamble, +0.42%
  • Walgreens Boots, +0.35%
  • Stryker, +0.16%
  • Merck, +0.16%
Whirlpool is reporting and beat of $4.91 versus estimate of $4.27.  Revenues fell short of expectations at 5.38 billion versus 5.52 billion estimate.  Whirlpool shares are trading at $149 per share that’s up $0.77 or 0.52%.

Earnings releases pickup tomorrow with 3M, Starbucks, Apple, Pfizer and Lockheed Martin as some of the key releases.

Other key releases this week include:
  • Wednesday: Tesla, McDonald’s, Microsoft, Boeing, Facebook
  • Thursday: Amazon, UPS, Coca-Cola, Electronic Arts, Biogen
  • Friday: Chevron, Honeywell, Caterpillar, Exxon Mobil, Colgate-Palmolive

Markets wake up: Oil drops, gold jumps, yen bid

  
Analysis, Gold / Silver
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Risk aversion kicks in

Risk aversion kicks in
Gold is up $14 in the first minutes of trading while WTI crude has fallen 2.5% to $52.85. S&P 500 futures are down 1%. The US 10-year note future contract is up 11 ticks.
The yen is bid but not as much as I anticipated. NZD/JPY is down 50 pips to 71.69 and is the biggest percentage mover. USD/JPY is down 45 pips to 108.83.
Get ready for a wild week.

Major indices give up early gains on coronavirus fear

  
Analysis, US Market
#  #  #  #  #  #  #

Nasdaq snaps 7 week win streak.

The major indices give up early gains on coronavirus concerns and are ending the day lower.  For the week, the NASDAQ index snapped a 7 week winning streak and is ending down on the week. The Dow is in the midst of a four-day losing streak.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index -30.09 points or -0.90% at 3295.45. The high reached 3333.18. The low extended to 3281.53
  • The Nasdaq index fell -87.568 points or -0.93% at 9314.91. The high reached 9451.43. The low extended to 9273.23
  • The Dow closed down -171 points or -0.58% at 28989.73. The high reached 29288.79. The low extended to 28843.31.
For the week, the major indices all closed in the red:
  • Dow industrial average, -1.05%
  • S&P index, -0.64%
  • NASDAQ index, -0.45%
Apart from the German Dax and the Australia’s S&P/ASX 200, the major global indices end the week negative (see charts below).
Major indices closed mostly lower this week
Go to top