The week ahead is a big one on the US economic calendar

What’s coming up in the week ahead

The final week of the month is always a busy one. Here’s what’s coming up in the week ahead.
Monday:
  • Chicago Fed national activity
  • Durable goods orders
  • Dallas Fed
Tuesday:
  • FHFA house price index
  • Case Shiller house price index
  • Richmond Fed
  • Conference Board consumer confidence
Wednesday:
  • Weekly oil inventories
  • Fed’s Barkin and Daly
Thursday:
  • Second look at Q2 US GDP
  • Advance goods trade balance
  • Wholesale inventories
  • Weekly jobless claims
  • Pending home sales
Friday:
  • PCE report
  • U Mich final consumer sentiment
  • Chicago PMI

Ifo economist says that German economy faces a turbulent time ahead

Comments by Ifo economist, Klaus Wohlrabe, following the data earlier

Germany
  • Sees a slightly positive growth rate in 2H 2019 for Germany
  • But notes that recession is spreading in all important sectors in German economy
  • Says risk of disorderly Brexit has increased
  • Doesn’t believe that the ECB will loosen policy today
The early signs for Q3 haven’t been encouraging for Germany with the manufacturing sector in freefall as the recession in that area deepens. As that continues, the risk of spillover to the services sector will intensify and that won’t bode well for the economic outlook.
As for his comment on the ECB, I’m also leaning more towards that as the governing council may likely see fit to only change its forward guidance as they will only release their latest staff projections in September. That said, they will be skating on very, very thin ice in the mean time in managing the euro and inflation expectations.

Powell does not comment on monetary policy or the economy in opening remarks

Gives opening remarks at Boston Fed conference

  • stress tests most evolved to avoid complacency
Chair Powell’s main event(s) this week will be on Capitol Hill on both Wednesday and Thursday as he testifies to US lawmakers.  That is where the rubber will meet the road.
Later today, the Fed’s
  • Bostic is due to deliver opening remarks at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum Meeting, in St. Louis at 10:10 AM ET/1410 GMT
  • Quarles speaks on stress tests in Boston (not sure can expect much there).   That starts at 2 PM ET/1800 GMT
  • Fed’s Bostic will be speaking at Washington University in St. Louis at 2:20 PM ET/1820 GMT. He will be do an “armchair chat” and not speak from text.