Poll results – Rally in global stocks nearly over, further gains will be limited, correction likely by year-end

Reuters polled equity market analysts and that headline above is the summary:

In very brief summary:
  • The spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pending plans to taper its asset purchases are likely to leave equity markets exposed to turbulence over the coming months.
  • positive earnings season catalyst now behind us
  • 66 of 107 analysts said a correction in global equity markets by end-year was likely. The remaining 41 said unlikely.
Reuters have published a long piece, with a few anecdotal remarks that you might find of further interest, here is the link for plenty more.
Reuters polled equity market analysts and that headline above is the summary:

Coronavirus – US Chamber of Commerce official sees risk that India could be a drag on the global economy

A US Chamber of Commerce official sees risk of a slowdown in India’s economy as a result of the Covid-19 jump, which could be a drag on the global economy.

Headlines via Reuters (perhaps today’s Captain Obvious award?)
  • “We expect that this could get worse before it gets better”
  • a “real risk” the Indian economy would falter given the circumstances
  • “There’s a big concern about the draft on the economy by a devastating, spreading virus in India.”

Major indices plunge on Covid/election fear. Close near session lows

Big day today on the earnings front

The major indices fell sharply on Covid/election fears. European countries imposed new restrictions. Case count continue to rise putting pressure on hospitals. A lack of a coronavirus stimulus deal in the US is also weighing. Finally, uncertainty about the upcoming election is also frightened traders. The volatility index (Vix index )rose by 19.31% to close to 40.

Some of the highlights in the numbers today
  • Dow closes down for the 4th consecutive day
  • Dow has the longest losing streak since February
  • Dow closes at the lowest level since July 31
  • Dow closed below its 100 day moving average at 27250.30. Approaches its 200 day moving average at 26226.46
  • S&P has a 3 day losing streak
  • S&P sees all 11 sectors moved to the downside
  • S&P index closed below its 100 day moving average at 3306.05
  • NASDAQ index closed below its 50 day moving average at 11313.65, but above its 100 day moving average at 10870.86
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index fell -119.51 points or -3.52% to 3271.17.
  • The NASDAQ index fell by -426.48 points or -3.73% to 11004.86.
  • Dow industrial average fell minus hundred 42.18 points or -3.43% to 26520.74

FT report that UK PM Johnson’s 3-year spending master plan to be ditched

Financial Times say that UK Chancellor Sunak has told the PM that current plans should not go ahead due to the chaos of Covid-19.

A decision to scrap the three-year review in favour of a stopgap single-year settlement would be a setback for Mr Johnson, who saw the event as a chance to map out his priorities for a post-Covid world.
Johnson and Sunak have been discussing whether anything can be salvaged from binned plan.
Brexit trade talks appear to be floundering. Coronavirus outbreak infections surging. Lockdown accelerating, and resisted.  Not a lot of good UK news about at present.

UK coronavirus – PM Johson considering imposing tougher lockdown restrictions

UK media (Sun) reporting Boris Johnson is pondering even tougher restrictions

  • tougher lockdown restrictions for millions of people in the north of England
Due to the continued surge in COVID-19 cases.
More from the report:
  • there is “simply no reasonable alternative” to restrictions
  • Pubs and restaurants face closure in Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle
  • Some shops could also be forced to shut
  • workplaces and schools would remain open.
  • A No 10 source said: “The numbers are going the wrong way, and there will come a point very soon where we simply have to do more.”

Moderna says its coronavirus vaccine will not be ready until 2021

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel statements on Wednesday, carried in the Financial Times overnight ICYMI.

  • will not seek emergency authorization for Food and Drug Administration approval for its vaccine to use in frontline medical workers and at-risk individuals until Nov. 25 at the earliest.
  • company would not seek FDA approval for use in the general population until late January
  • If the vaccine is proven safe and effective, approval is unlikely to come until at least late March or early April
Link to FT, may be gated.

AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine – study put on hold due to suspected adverse reaction in trial participant

The Phase 3 study testing the AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford COVID-19 vaccine has been put on hold due to a suspected serious adverse reaction in a participant in the United Kingdom.

Spokesperson for AstraZeneca
  • standard review process triggered a pause to vaccination to allow review of safety data
  • “a routine action which has to happen whenever there is a potentially unexplained illness in one of the trials, while it is investigated, ensuring we maintain the integrity of the trials.”
Risk negative, but so far little response. Eyes on the tech rout still. Globex equity index future trade reopens at the top of this hour.

ICYMI: Scientists question results from a study of Russia’s coronavirus vaccine

Taking a detour from the tech stock rout for just a moment, this on the much-touted Russian COVID-19 vaccine.

Via Bloomberg.
A group of international scientists say some of the published findings that appeared in the Lancet appeared improbable.
  • flagged concerns over seemingly identical levels of antibodies in a number of study participants who were inoculated with the experimental vaccine
  • This and other patterns in the data present “several different points of concern”
The link above has more. Is anyone surprised by this?
Taking a detour from the tech stock rout for just a moment, this on the much-touted Russian COVID-19 vaccine.

Coronavirus – Abbott launches a $5 Covid-19 test, 15 min turnaround. No lab required.

This is the Abbott BinaxNOW™ COVID-19 Ag Card test

  • The test delivers results in just 15 minutes
  • no instrumentation required
The firm cite:
  • demonstrated sensitivity of 97.1% and specificity of 98.5% in clinical study
  • Company will ship tens of millions of tests in September, ramping to 50 million tests a month at the beginning of October
Note – not a vaccine, not a cure, not palliative. ‘Just’ a test.
But, rapid testing can enhance detection and subsequent isolation and help inprove the ‘R’ number (get it lower). So it is significant.
ps. This new test has been in the news, so its not a ‘breaking’ development.
This is the Abbott BinaxNOW™ COVID-19 Ag Card test

New confirmed COVID-19 cases in Italy hit their highest since May on Wednesday

Italy reported 1,367 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday

  • highest daily tally since May
  • Wednesday number of tests was 93,529 (around almost 20,000 more than Tuesday and a record since the beginning of the pandemic)
Despite the renewed surge in infections, authorities in the country persist with saying there are no plans for a new lockdown.
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