Nikkei reports: China is doubling down on demands that may threaten trade deal

Cold feet again?

The Nikkei is reporting that Beijing has double down on demands that may threaten to delay a preliminary trade agreement with the US.
The report says that China is digging in on insisting that US withdrawal all tariffs levied since summer of last year before entering an agreement.  Pres. Trump is likely not thinking along those lines in Phase I of what will be a drawn out process.
Phase 1 is intended to focus on expanding American imports into China, but does not address the key structural issues like IP theft.
Trade deals sound good on paper but once the rubber meets the road and both parties dig in a bit more, the risks of a deal break down are real.
The US stock market is taking it in stride. The major indices are trading little changed on the day.
Gold meanwhile is down $25 or -1.67% which suggests no worries/be happy.
If the rhetoric becomes more pervasive, however, we could see a reversal of the market forces going forward.
CLICK HERE for the story

Catalyst that could lead to a crash

“Chinese banks face state loans turmoil; about Rmb1,550B in questionable loans. “
This simple sentence reminds me of the Japanese Banks prior to the big Nikkei crash, that has not yet recovered (over 20 years).
What did we learn from the subprime mess ? The banks lied to us …..
What did we learn about the Nikkei crash ? The banks lied ….
1) Watch the Shanghai Index ! It has risen from its July’s low to almost 2600 ; a key resistance level.
2) Watch light crude oil prices (key indicator for the Chinese demand)
3) Did you just make some money on this rally ? SELL !!!!
I am bearish ? No, its just NOT the time to “buy and hold”

Japanese Prime Minister To Step Down

Ichiro Ozawa, secretary-general of Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s party, asked Hatoyama to step down from his post, Yukio Ubukata, vice secretary- general of the party said in a TV Asahi program today. Ubukata said he expects both to resign before an upper house election next month. Hatoyama refused to resign during a meeting of senior party officials yesterday, Kyodo News reported.

As this action will likely lead to Yen weakness, and thus Euro strength, the most likely result will be a green close for the Nikkei, once again indicating that politically destabilizing fundamentals don’t matter to C++.

Updated at 7:20/2nd June/Baroda