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Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems-Kevin J. Davey :Book Review

  
  Education
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kevin

On balance expert systems trump human experts, hence the drive to make trading more systematic and mechanical. The problem is that Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems, the title of Kevin J. Davey’s new book (Wiley, 2014), can be tough. Davey recounts his sometimes gut-wrenching journey “from data mining to Monte Carlo simulation to live trading” and provides traders with useful information that will help them avoid his mistakes.

The author joins a rather small fraternity of systems developers who have shared their thoughts, for better or worse, with the reading public. I think here—and this list is in no way meant to be exhaustive—of Howard Bandy (Quantitative Trading Systems), Tushar Chande (Beyond Technical Analysis), Urban Jaekle and Emilio Tomasini (Trading Systems), Perry Kaufman (Trading Systems and Methods), Robert Pardo (The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies), and Thomas Stridsman (Trading Systems That Work).

The strength of Davey’s book is that it covers the entire process of designing, developing, testing, trading, and monitoring a system. It also includes Easy Language code for three sample strategies, and on the password-protected companion website (the password is given in the book) there are five helpful spreadsheets.
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Money-Mind-Method

  
  Education
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Mind: The key to winning is inside the Mind. As Master of your mind, you have to manage and understand your emotions very well. It is extremely important to understand not just the individual’s psychology, but also the crowd psychology of the markets. To become a successful trader, you must have sheer perseverance and discipline.

Method: There is no Holy Grail in the search for the perfect method to trade. Follow the wisdom of ‘Plan your Trade and Trade your Plan’. A good trading plan should cover your entry, exit and position sizing requirements. My method consists of discretionary trading techniques that combine both fundamental and technical analysis, in addition to my own proprietary automated trading system. Coming up with a good trading plan requires lots of market experience, as you modify, conquer and solidify your trading techniques. Don’t be duped by charming salesmen selling get-rich-quick-without-effort secret recipes. 

Money: Overall profit/loss depends on money management. The first goal of money management is capital preservation. If you lose 10% of your capital, you have to make 11% just to break even. If you lose 40%, you need to make 67%, and if you lose 50%, guess what? You have to make 100% just to recover! So before you think about making big money, first you got to think about not risking your capital unnecessarily. Money management is too important to be overlooked.

Nuggets

  
  Education
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Price — The Truth, The Light, The Way

  • Work to understand price
  • Price does not move in a straight line
  • Big moves take time
  • Volatility is your friend and helps to compress time
  • Although volatility is your pal, it can cut both ways
  • If a stock moves 30% a day, then you can’t trade with a 5% stop
  • Don’t expect a volatile stock to stop behaving as it has been and only move in your favor just because you’re now in it.

 

Random Thoughts:

  • Observe but be slow to shift gears — we are trend followers, not predictors
  • It’s the market’s “job” to shake you out
    • The market will do what it has to do to create the most pain (for the most people)
    • The market will often do the obvious in the most un-obvious manner
  • Err on the side of the longer-term trend
    • DO wait for entries
    • DO use protective stops
    • DO trail and scale as offered

5 Steps To Becoming a Long-Term Success in Trading

  
Analysis, Education
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1. Make Rational, Not Emotional, Decisions — Do you have a plan to enter and exit your trades? Or do you just wing it? If you have a plan, write down your rules, and make sure that you trade your plan. If you don’t, or can’t, follow your rules, hire someone who can.
2. Respect Risk — Stock Market  is not going anywhere. If you risk too much, your emotions will take over, and you will likely go broke. Always know where you are going to exit before you enter and how much you are going to risk if wrong.,
3. Don’t Judge Your Success One Trade at a Time — Losing money is part of trading. It happens to everyone. Once you learn to expect that will happen, you can plan for it and get past normal pitfalls, such as giving up on your system after a few losing trades.
4. Think like a winner — Remember that winning starts within. How you think is everything.,
5. Ask For Help — Making money on Wall Street is simple, but it is definitely not easy. Don’t let your ego get in your way of making money. Most people have a hard time asking for help. That’s just one reason why most people lose money on Stock Market . You don’t have to go it alone. Find someone you trust and are comfortable with, and don’t be afraid to ask for help.

3 Elements of Trading Success

  
  Education
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What all winning traders must have, regardless of timeframe and system are as follows:

Trading System

  • They trade a robust system or method that wins more money over time than it loses.
  • Their system gives them a reward to risk ratio that is in their favor.
  • Their system or method is proven to work with a live trading record over many markets, trades, or has  historical back testing.

Trading with Managed Risk

  • They manage the risk of ruin to avoid blowing up their account.
  • They risk no more than 1%-2% of total account equity on any one trade.
  • They manage risk through proper position size so they do not risk their account and their ability to trade in the future.
  • They do not risk more than 6%-12% of their capital at one time, across multiple trades.

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Yes, We are Unique

  
Analysis, Education
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I remember the quote from Bernard Baruch :

“It is much harder to sell stocks correctly than to buy them correctly.” Because of the emotional aspect of trading, if a “stock went up, the average investor would hold because he wants more gains – he’s exhibiting greed. If the stock declines, he also holds on and hopes the stock will come back so he can at least sell and break even – he’s hoping against hope.”

Traders & Readers are sending us mail and writing that we are Born Bears.

-101% its wrong thinking.We write/recommend and trade according to levels only.Not interested in Economy ,Inflation figure,Monsoon or Corporate Results and basically I dont trust any Corporate !!

No Tantra ,No Mantra & No Yantra.

No Astrology !!

Just power of chart and our Vision.

Today our market forecast has confirmed it, nth time.

Refer to this exclusivity in our web-site.

As per the forecast market was weak till 10-35, then recovered to +ve zone uptill 1-35 and as per the unique forecast, collapsed from 1-35 only to dwindle down heavily till end. 

After 5185, our next Nf Hurdle was 5215, it went upto 5202.  On downside after it broke our 2nd support at 5146, we alerted all our Subscribers to Sell

 everything and Short market for a possible break 5114 where after it would be a bloodbath.  You all know NF collapsed to 5058, 150 points loss from the top.

Weak Opening, V recovery from 10-35, and from 1-30 bear-attack… so don’t have any long position in market.

Expected Bank NF will crash upto 9650.But it tumbled upto 9540 level….(Our Subscribers knows…..many more things )

Now u all tell if anything else is left in this market. That’s why our recently concluded Subscription enrolment was such an astounding hit.

All our subscribers / readers are busy in counting

their earnings while all Bulls ,Blue Channel (Analysts ),Website Analysts are singing


 

Technically Yours

Anirudh Sethi/Baroda/India


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